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Friday, October 30, 2015

Germany May Soon Have 8 Million Muslims, Islamic Political Party

by Raheem Kassam
Professor Jürgen W. Falter
Political scientist Jürgen W. Falter: German Chancellor Angela Merkel's statements on immigration sound "like an invitation to the entire world [that] unlimited refugees are welcome."

A German political expert has warned that a successful Islamic political party is not a far off thought given Germany's rapidly changing demographics. In an interview with the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung newspaper, Professor Jürgen W. Falter, who specialises in political extremism, noted that Chancellor Angela Merkel's position on immigration may soon change, claiming "Pandora's box is opened too far".

Professor Falter said: "I do not think that the position of Mrs. Merkel, with time, will be held. Her words are rowing forward, but below the surface, back already... certainly this has something to do with the fact she sees that she has to get the genie back in the bottle... a Pandora's box is opened too far."

"[Her migration policy] was probably not meant the way it has arrived. But it sounded like an invitation to the entire world, unlimited refugees are welcome."

His views on the rise of the Alternative fur Deutschland are also worthy of note, claiming that it was destined to become a small, regional party before the migrant crisis, but that now it can flourish without really doing much at all.

Alternative fur Deutschland is a right wing party founded by those who were fed-up with Germany bailing out southern EU countries. It has become a populist party wanting a tougher approach to the EU and to immigration - similar to UK's UKIP.

But it has now become the first anti-euro party to win seats in a German regional parliament, receiving almost 10% of the vote in the eastern German state of Saxony, taking even the party's bosses by surprise.

And he warned about the rise of an Islamic political party in Germany – small versions of which may already have been witnessed elsewhere in Europe, such as with Tower Hamlets First in East London and the Respect Party in Bradford, both in the United Kingdom.

He posits that despite Mrs. Merkel's kind welcoming of many Muslims, it is unlikely they would vote for a party with the word "Christian" in its name:

There's doubt, first of all against the [Christian Democratic] Union (CDU), because it still bears "Christian" in its title. Even reduced to their basics, the CDU and CSU [Christian Social Union] are relatively strong names. This is naturally, for devout Muslims, not the party of first choice.

Currently a large number of [Muslims] are believed to be active in rather simpler professions. In addition once they are integrated into the working life, they are more likely to vote for left-wing parties or possibly even for an established Islamic party.

Currently, we have about five million Muslims living in Germany. Suppose there comes another million, plus family reunification. Then there will be between seven and eight million. This is not an entirely fanciful number. That would be in far enough for a minority party.

In context: Angela Merkel's party achieved 18 million votes in the 2013 federal elections, with the second party, the SPD, receiving 11 million votes. The third largest party, the Left Party (Linkspartei), got 3.7 million votes, the Greens 3.6 million, and the more libertarian FDP 2 million.

While there may be seven or eight million Muslims in Germany in the next few years, a significant percentage of these will be under the voting age, so any Islamic political party would be unable to acquire that number of votes. It may, however, have the capacity to outperform the FDP, the Greens, and even the Left Party, maybe even making itself large enough to force itself into a governing coalition.

And then...

Raheem Kassam is a Shillman-Ginsburg fellow at the Middle East Forum and editor-in-chief of Breitbart London.