Erdogan's Ottoman Empire Ambitions Suffering from His Own Eroding Base

Ajit Sahi

It is easy to understand Erdogan's desperate attempt to stoke religious sentiments by converting the Hagia Sophia museum into a mosque. With this decision, he is merely trying to deflect attention from Turkey's worsening economic situation over the last several years which is now bringing him electoral defeat after electoral defeat.

In fact, Erdogan is today politically at his weakest since first winning power in 2003. His party, the AKP, has been steadily losing support among the voters. Last year, his party was twice defeated in the mayoral election in Istanbul, Turkey's biggest and most populous city. When the first election saw the AKP candidate lose by a slim margin, Erdogan simply refused to accept that decision and forced his hand-picked election authorities to call a second election. The reelection, held three months after the first, saw the AKP lose by a decisive and massive margin. Erdogan's party also lost elections in many other cities.

There is no doubt that Erdogan has more support in Muslims outside of Turkey, who likely see in him the closest figure who can return a pan-Muslim (and pan-Islamic) rule like the Ottoman Caliphate once used to be, than in his own country. Like Narendra Modi, Erdogan, too, has tried to control independent pillars of democracy, from the judiciary to the central bank. Erdogan made his son-in-law the country's finance minister in 2018, and the economy has gone worse since then.

Last month, Turkey had an inflation rate of 12%, which is most certainly an under-assessment. Turkey's currency, the Lira, has fallen 13% against the US dollar this year. Last year, the Lira had fallen by 20% against the USD, and 20% the year before, in 2018. Whereas Erdogan led a massive economic expansion program from 2003, the picture is now far less rosy. In 2008, Turkey's share of the world's economy was 1.2%. Today, it is 0.89%.

Unemployment has been persistently high in Turkey. The government claimed this week that unemployment rate has fallen to 12.8% in May, which, though in itself high, is still underreporting. Unnerved by the coronavirus, Erdogan forbid businesses from sacking employees while allowing unpaid leave. So millions sitting at home without any income are counted as "employed".

In fact, the number of employed persons dropped by about 2.6 million people during March-May this year compared with the same period last year. The overall employment rate declined by nearly 5% to 41%. Worryingly, the youth unemployment rate, including people ages 15 to 24, rose 1.2% hitting 24.4% in April, the Turkish Statistical Institute said yesterday.

At the macroeconomic level, Turkey is steeped deep in debt. The government and the private corporations together owe nearly half a trillion dollars in debt. Turkey's overall GDP is only slightly higher at USD770 billion. With a falling economy, it is becoming harder for both the government and the private sector to service debt.

Across industry, margins of profit have sharply dropped. Investment has been continuously drying up. Businesspeople are postponing expansions. Even farming has hugely suffered under Erdogan.

That is why, like Modi, Erdogan has been muzzling free press, putting journalists and activists in prison, purging universities of independent-minded academicians, accusing every opponent of being a "Western plant".

Many non-Turkish Muslims think Erdogan is the chosen global leader for all Muslims. For now, however, Erdogan is just trying to save himself in Turkey, and all he can think of is turning a church-turned-mosque-turned-museum into a mosque in order to revive his support.