Labour’s 'TERF' War: Mass Walkout Threats over Transgender Acceptance

Transgender women's officer Lily Madigan and Jeremy Corbyn © Reuters/ Lily Madigan

A radical feminist group in Labour is threatening to leave, after the party announced it would be backing trans people standing on women-only shortlists. The policy looks set to ignite larger divisions over gender recognition.

The UK Labour Party has been papering over an internal rupture over whether or not transgender people can stand for selection. There are no candidates at present, but a group of radical feminists – so-called Trans Exclusionary Radical Feminists (TERFs) – want the policy scrapped before it happens.

The group’s demands received a blow today. The equality subcommittee of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee is planning to officially back a statement to rebuffed their demands.

The NEC is going further, reports say, and is likely to insist the party stamps out “transphobia and the abuse of members based on their trans identity will not be tolerated in the Labour Party.” A copy of the statement, leaked ahead of the meeting to HuffPost, said “the Labour Party continues to have an inclusive definition of women,” and explicitly affirms that “All Women Shortlists and women’s reserved places are open to self-defining women.”

Labour has been locked in a brutal battle between TERFs and trans members. One young trans activist was repeatedly abused online by people from within the party when she took a role within her local constituency in Kent.

Lily Madigan was the first ever elected women’s officer, after her lesbian predecessor was ousted for anti-trans comments. Madigan was subjected to online hate, including ridicule and claims she was not fit for the role.

The decision by the NEC’s committee has provoked anger among some sections of the party. The news has led to threats of mass resignations from anti-transgender campaigners.

In a public post on Mumsnet, activist Jennifer James wrote: “The secret squirrel beardy bro Momentum careerists [have] been showing true colours. Bros don’t care about trans rights… they just want to use trans ppl as a human shield for sexism and abuse cos we won’t do as they say.”

A formal statement on behalf of her crowdfunding campaign later added: “Our solicitors have, today, sent our pre-action protocol and submissions letter to the Labour Party in respect of the definition of ‘woman’ for protected positions and all-women shortlists.

“Our solicitors are Bhogal Partners, and through them we have instructed Amanda Jones of Counsel, who is a tenant at Great James Street Chambers in London. The letter was drafted by Miss Jones after consultation with the solicitors and on instructions. We hope that the Labour Party will take our letter and concerns seriously, and consider the points raised in it carefully.”

James is currently suspended from the Labour Party over allegations of transphobic and abusive conduct. Group ‘Mayday4Women’ is planning a mass resignation of Labour members from the party to protest the decision, timed for International Women’s Day on Thursday.

It said: “WOMEN! Stop resigning individually from @labour – we keep receiving copies of resignation emails from women leaving over Self-ID. Rather than do it individually let’s coordinate together and make it something mass that can get press coverage. Get in touch if you’re up for it.” 

The statement on transgender acceptance will now head to the full NEC for approval.

It's not bad enough that women get constantly abused and pushed aside by men, now they are getting pushed out by men who dress up like women. What an insane world we live in.

Guide to Europe's Relentless Political Shift to Starboard

Guide to the right: Where and how the right wing is rising in Europe

© Aris Messinis / AFP

Italy has become the latest European country where a general election has brought about the rise of right-wing politicians, a trend that’s growing across the EU.

The European Union is moving to the right side of the political spectrum. While left-wing officials, analysts and media blame anything from Russian bots to uneducated voters, the trend has been becoming more pronounced as elections take place across the bloc. Euroskeptic, anti-immigration and nationalist outlooks seem to be ever more appealing to the public.

To help you find your way in the changing political landscape, here is a brief guide to the right-wing parties gaining clout in Europe: their agendas, leaders and the reasons of their success.

Italy

Italy voted on March 4, 2018 to elect lawmakers into both chambers of its parliament. At stake were the 630 seats in the lower Chamber of Deputies and 315 in the upper Senate. The result is projected to be a divided parliament, with a grand coalition necessary after immense gains for right-wing and anti-globalist forces.

The rising right

Lega (ex-Lega Nord) and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia pooled efforts in a center-right coalition that won about 31.4 percent of the vote for the lower house and 32 percent in the upper, to become the second-most powerful force in the Italian legislature.

With Italy on the receiving end of the overloaded cross-Mediterranean human smuggling routes, Lega’s anti-immigration message won it some 17.4 (17.6) percent, while the conservative Forza Italia and its controversial leader Silvio Berlusconi captured 14 (14.4) percent.

Forza Italia leader Silvio Berlusconi wipes the sweat off Lega leader Matteo Salvini in Rome, Italy, March 1, 2018 © Alessandro Bianchi / Reuters

The Five Star Movement, which ended up the largest single party with over 32 percent in both chambers, sports a wider, “big tent” ideology, sharing the right coalition’s Euroskeptic tendencies.

The losers

This deals a powerful blow to Italy’s Democratic Party and its center-left following, which only mustered some 18.7 percent of support in the lower house and 19.2 percent in the upper. Stunned by the setback, the Democrats’ leader, former prime minister Matteo Renzi, announced his resignation.

Austria

The October 15, 2017 election landed the Austrian government firmly in the hands of the right. Out of the 183 seats in the National Council, 113 ended up with the coalition lead by youngest-ever Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

The rising right

Austrian People’s Party (OVP) was the biggest gainer with 31.5 percent of the vote. Kurz’s own charismatic image, his promises of tougher immigration control and a pushback against “political Islam” were enough to tip the balance, making the People’s Party the single largest in the Council. While previously governing in a grand coalition with the rival Social Democrats, its new-found clout is now united with the more hardline Freedom Party.

The Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) is riding on a strong anti-immigration message, promising tighter border security in a country with Europe’s highest number of incoming asylum seekers per capita, and facing a sharp rise in crime by foreigners. It sealed 26 percent of the vote and a comfortable coalition partnership with Kurz’s OVP.

Top candidate of the People's Party (OVP) Sebastian Kurz attends victory celebration in Vienna, Austria, October 15, 2017

© Dominic Ebenbichler / Reuters

The losers

Number-on-number, the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPO) suffered no loss (the Greens bore the brunt of that), gaining 0.1 percent compared to 2013 (which did not translate into additional seats). The enormous blow it suffered came from the loss of coalition partner OVP, who decided to abandon the SPO’s pro-European, leftist agenda, resulting in a sharp turn to the right for the Austrian government.

Gains and losses

Austrian People’s Party (OVP): 62 seats (+15 from 2013)

Freedom Party of Austria (FPO): 51 seats (+11 from 2013)

Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPO): 52 seats (no change from 2013)

Germany

Germans went to the polls on September 24, 2017, to decide the composition of the 709-member Bundestag. What resulted was over five months without a government, as former allies drifted away from long-time Chancellor Angela Merkel and her liberal-conservative, pro-European Christian Democratic political alliance (CDU/CSU). The limbo eventually ended when the leftist Social Democratic Party (SPD) grudgingly agreed to re-enter a grand coalition with Merkel, paving the way for her fourth term as chancellor. Both parties were set back in the vote, however, resulting in gains for the right wing.

The rising right

Alternative for Germany (AfD), while by no means securing a majority, made a massive breakthrough, making it into the legislature for the first time. Its 12.6 percent (almost a threefold gain from 2013) came at the expense of CDU/CSU and SPD, as more Germans flocked to AfD’s anti-immigration, anti-Islamization, Euroskeptic agenda, disappointed by Merkel’s “open door” policy and the flood of asylum seekers it brought to the country.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) party congress in Hanover, Germany December 2, 2017 © Hannibal Hanschke / Reuters

The losers

While still emerging on top at the end of the day, both the CDU/CSU were hit hard. Merkel’s alliance ended up with 32.9 percent of the vote and the Social Democrats with 20.5 percent, each losing a fifth of its seats.

Gains and losses

Alternative for Germany (AfD): 94 seats (+94 from 2013)

CDU/CSU: 246 seats (-65 since 2013)

Social Democratic Party (SPD): 153 seats (-40 since 2013)

The Netherlands

The 150-member Dutch House of Representatives ended up a pretty diverse place after the March 15, 2017 election. Right-wingers were among the biggest gainers, including the one-man party of hardline Euroskeptic Geert Wilders.

The rising right

Party for Freedom (PVV), run by Geert Wilders, came in second with 13.1 percent of the vote at the expense of Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s ruling party. Like many in this list, Wilders is a staunch opponent of unhindered immigration, the growing influence of Islam in Europe, and the political clout the EU has over individual countries. Wilders’ support had flagged back in the 2012 election, but his message proved relevant enough when the European migrant crisis began in 2015, propelling him back up in the polls again.

FILE PHOTO: Geert Wilders © Yves Herman / Reuters

The losers

The most striking loss hit the center-left Labor Party (PvdA), which, with only 5.7 percent support, suffered the biggest defeat in the history of Dutch elections. From second-largest party in 2012 it fell to near-obscurity with just nine seats.

Mark Rutte’s People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) was set back by about a fourth of its seats after two elections with solid gains, ending up with 21.3 percent and the PVV breathing down its neck.

Gains and losses

Party for Freedom (PVV): 20 seats (+5 from 2012)

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD): 33 seats (-8 from 2012)

Labor Party (PvdA): 9 seats (-29 from 2012)

Hungary

The right wing has been in power in Hungary since Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s party Fidesz won a sweeping victory in 2010. The Hungarians are heading for a new poll in April 2018, and things are still looking good for the right.

The rising right

Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance, Orban’s conservative, center-right, Euroskeptic party, actually dipped in popularity in 2014, falling from 2010’s stellar 52.73 percent to 44.87 percent. Opinion polls show that support for Fidesz had been flagging, falling to below 40 percent, until 2015 and the unprecedented influx of Middle Eastern refugees into Europe.

FILE PHOTO: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban © Laszlo Balogh / Reuters

One of the most crowded land routes lay through Hungary, and Viktor Orban took a decidedly hardline stance against it, pushing back against EU-wide refugee quotas and building border barriers to limit illegal arrivals. This stance appeared to resonate well with the Hungarian public, resulting in a steady rise in Orban’s popularity. As of late February 2018, polls projected 52.9 percent in Fidesz’s favor – an even higher result than the 2010 landmark.

The losers

After the crushing defeat of 2010, the center-left, pro-European Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) scrambled to contest the 2014 vote, forming the Unity political alliance with four other liberal parties. Together, they only mustered 25.57 percent support, which was only a slight gain from what MSZP had achieved alone, and still almost 20 percent short of Fidesz. The alliance was soon disbanded. MSZP’s projections for 2018 look grim as well, with polls indicating under 12 percent support, and seven percent each for two of its closest-running Unity partners.

Gains and losses

Between the Unity’s brief existence and the 2012 constitutional reform, which cut the number of parliament seats in half, tracking changes in representation can be a challenge. Here are the 2014 numbers compared to 2010:

Fidesz: 133 seats out of 199 (a decrease compared to 263/386 in 2010)

Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP): 58 seats out of 199 together with Unity partners (a gain compared to 59/386 in 2010, but that was as MSZP standing alone)

Poland

Poland switched over to the right in October 2015, when conservative Law and Justice (PiS) surged to defeat the Civic Platform, reversing the government-opposition balance. This ultimately resulted in a rift with the EU which could now cost Warsaw its European Parliament voting rights.

The rising right

Law and Justice (PiS) has been steadily gaining votes since its creation in 2001 by the brothers Kaczynski. In 2015 it swept to power with 37.58 percent of the vote, almost doubling its seats in the Polish Sejm from the 2011 numbers. Not only is the Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, a PiS member, but the President Andrzej Duda also hails from the party (although he has been officially independent since his election in 2015), giving the right significant clout in deciding Poland’s course. Duda’s approval rating stands at 72 percent, a record only broken by one other Polish leader before. PiS is also enjoying a continued rise in popularity, with February 2018 polls projecting a 43 percent result in the next election.

FILE PHOTO: Leader of Law and Justice party Jaroslaw Kaczynski © Agencja Gazeta/Slawomir Kaminski / Reuters

PiS-led Poland has been fighting back against EU-enforced quotas on accepting refugees, only reluctantly agreeing to let in about half of the required number. It also earned the EU’s ire with a controversial 2017 judicial reform, which gives the parliament and the justice minister power to appoint Supreme Court judges. This has led to the European Commission initiating proceedings into stripping Poland of voting rights in the European Parliament. PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski has slammed the movement as overreach and an intervention in Poland’s internal affairs.

The losers

The liberal, pro-EU Civic Platform (PO) won 24.09 percent of the vote in 2015, a whopping 15 percentage-point drop since 2011, neatly reversing positions with PiS and going into opposition. As of February 2018, its standing in opinion polls has slid even lower, dipping below 20 percent.

Gains and losses

Law and Justice (PiS): 235 seats (+101 from 2011)

Civic Platform (PO): 138 seats (-59 from 2011)

Sweden

Sweden has two right-leaning forces, both currently in opposition: The Alliance headed by the center-right Moderates party, and the much more pronounced Swedish Democrats, operating alone.

The rising right

Swedish Democrats bagged 12.9 percent of the 2014 vote, more than doubling its influence in the national legislature. They are pushing for economic and political independence from the European Union, but perhaps the most relevant part of their message is that Sweden must not accept any more immigrants. The country is home to the violent crime hotbed of Malmo and the highest sex crime rates in Europe, which some critics link to mass immigration. The Swedish government has acknowledged that its refugee-accepting capacity has hit its limit.

FILE PHOTO: Sweden Democrats party leader Jimmie Akesson © Anders Wiklund/TT News Agency / Reuters

The losers

Sweden’s center-left ruling coalition, the Lofven Cabinet, is a minority government, with has 37.9 percent of popular backing across two parties. Their support remained virtually unchanged from 2010 to 2014. The Alliance, four parties with a combined 39.43 percent, lost about a fifth of its support. The Moderates, leading the alliance, have since abandoned their previously liberal stance on migration, calling for border controls, reduced welfare and stricter family reunification rules. They are now also floating the idea of uniting with the Swedish Democrats, previously shunned by other parties, to topple the minority government in the September 2018 election.

Gains and losses

Swedish Democrats: 49 seats (+29 from 2010)

Lofven Cabinet: 138 seats (+1 from 2010)

Moderates: 141 seats (-32 from 2010)

Switzerland

Switzerland last elected its 200-seat National Council and 46-seat Council of States in October 2015. The vote resulted in gains for both of the country’s right-leaning forces: the center-right Liberals and the more hardline People’s Party.

The rising right

Swiss People’s Party won 29.4 percent of the votes, breaking a 50-year record for the number of National Council seats held by any one party. Its key message includes a reduction of involvement in international blocs including the EU and NATO, and tougher immigration controls.

FILE PHOTO: A poster of Swiss People's Party (SVP) demanding to deport criminal foreigners in Zurich, Switzerland

© Arnd Wiegmann / Ruptly

The Liberals gained 16.4 percent, landing the third-largest representation. While standing for the integration of immigrants, they are opposed to Switzerland’s EU membership, instead supporting individual, two-sided agreements.

The losers

No single party suffered a dramatic setback – the 2015 vote chipped away a little at everyone except the People’s Party and the FDP. Their main rival, the left-wing Social Democrats, managed not to lose too much ground, remaining in second spot with 18.8 percent and only surrendering two seats.

Gains and losses

Swiss People’s Party: 70 seats (+11 from 2011)

FDP.The Liberals: 46 seats (+4 from 2011)

Social Democrats: 55 seats (-2 from 2011)

Denmark

Denmark’s 2015 general election witnessed the biggest rise for the country’s most right-wing party, and the biggest fall for the minority ruling party.

The rising right

The Danish People’s Party came in second with 21.1 percent of the vote, almost doubling its presence in the legislation. Its policies include preserving the Danish national identity by limiting multiculturalism and assimilating non-Western migrants. It wants Denmark to keep its own national currency and preserve its sovereignty from overreaching EU power.

Danish People's Party (DF) leader Kristian Thulesen Dahl at an election party in Copenhagen, Denmark, June 18, 2015

© KELD NAVNTOFT / SCANPIX DENMARK / AFP

The losers

The biggest loss was suffered by Venstre, the centerpiece of the ruling center-right coalition of Denmark. It came in third with 19.5 percent.

The center-left Social Democrats remained in opposition despite gaining the most votes at 26.3 percent.

Gains and losses

Danish People’s Party: 37 seats (+15 from 2011)

Social Democrats: 47 seats (+3 from 2011)

Venstre: 34 seats (-13 from 2011)

France

France differs from the rest of this list in that the right wing failed to make significant gains in the legislature in the 2017 vote. Instead, the same year’s presidential election brought to prominence a singular right-wing politician.

The rising right

Marine le Pen, the notorious leader of the hardcore right-wing National Front, ran for president in April and May 2017. Her agenda combined all of the staples of the European right, including Euroskepticism, economic nationalism, and anti-immigration. She outraged the liberal media by meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a time when Moscow remains the West’s go-to bogeyman.

FILE PHOTO: National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen © Gonzalo Fuentes / Reuters

In spite of all these factors, or perhaps thanks to them, Le Pen secured over 21 percent of the vote in the first round, right behind Emmanuel Macron and his 24 percent. Both proceeded to the run-off, where Macron managed to beat Le Pen with the consolidated backing of 66.1 percent against 33.9 percent. While not a victory in itself, it certainly sent a message: right-wing sentiment is creeping across Europe, upheaving the political landscape.

Sri Lanka Declares State of Emergency as Sectarian Violence Erupts

By Sara Shayanian  

A state of emergency in Sri Lanka prompted the deployment of police officers and soldiers to civilian-populated areas, after clashes between Muslim and Buddhist communities. File Photo by M.A. Pushpa Kumara/EPA-EFE

UPI -- Sri Lanka declared a state of emergency Tuesday after violence erupted between Sinhalese and Muslim communities.

Officials said soldiers will be deployed to civilian areas for ten days, and a curfew was put in place.

Sinhalese - a people originally from northern India, now forming the majority of the population of Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka's government condemned recent arson attacks and riots in the central district of Kandy -- which damaged some places of worship, residences and businesses. Similar violence occurred last month when mobs set fire to Muslim-owned businesses and a mosque.

"The government also condemned the hate and mischievous targeting the Muslim community in particular and another as well, with the clear objective of creating among communities and inciting violence," officials said in a statement.

"The government urged for total cooperation from all citizens irrespective of any communal, religious differences to build a nation that is stable, peaceful and the progressive where diversity is respected."

Tensions flared in the country after a group of Muslim men were accused of killing a Buddhist man. The body of a 24-year-old Muslim man was later found in the town of Digana.

Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe tweeted Monday that the government would not hesitate to take action against the violence.

"As a nation that endured a brutal war we are all aware of the values of peace, respect, unity & freedom," Wickremesinghe said.

Alan Keenan, a Sri Lanka specialist with the International Crisis Group, said radical Buddhist groups -- who make up 75 percent of the population -- have targeted Muslims with "a significant degree of regularity" in the last five years.

"One of the key underlying elements is the sense that many Sinhalese and Buddhists have is that Sri Lanka is a Sinhalese and Buddhist island and other community, Muslims and Tamils, are here on the sufferance of the majority," Keenan said.

Sounds like Burma! Peace preaching Buddhists in Asia are seeming to become much more violent in their quest to hold on to historical lands in the face of increasing numbers of Muslims - the religion of Peace. Don't you just love irony?

Populist Parties Surge in Italian Election - Not Good News for EU

EU - listing a bit more to starboard

By Hilary Clarke and Euan McKirdy, CNN

(CNN) Populist parties have gained ground at the expense of establishment voices in Italy's parliamentary elections, which produced no clear winner as votes were being counted in the early hours of Monday.

The anti-establishment Five Star Movement is projected to have gained the most votes by a single party, while a center-right coalition looks set to hold the most seats in the country's senate.

According to state broadcaster RaiNews24, Five Star Movement led by 31-year-old Luigi di Maio is projected to gain over 32% of the vote, still short of the 40% needed to form a government.

Based on early vote count, the result looks like a win for the center-right coalition brokered by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, which collectively is projected to hold the biggest share of the vote -- 35.5%.

The result, which is comprised of Berlusconi's Forza Italia, Matteo Salvini's far-right League and the neo-fascist Brothers of Italy, means it will have the most seats in parliament, but 4% short of the 40% needed to avoid a hung parliament.

Berlusconi's Forza Italia is projected to receive 14%; the xenophobic and populist League, formerly known as the Northern League, also is expected to win 16%.

Berlusconi, a multi-billionaire, is currently not eligible to be Prime Minister because he has been convicted of tax fraud.

Poor showing for ruling party

The result is a blow for another former leader, Matteo Renzi, whose center-left group, comprised of his Democratic Party and the liberal More Europe party could only muster 23% between them.

The poor showing comes despite the ruling party projected to get the second-largest share of votes, 19%, for an individual party. Renzi, a center-left reformer, stepped aside in 2016 after the failure of a controversial constitutional referendum,

Italian political leaders seemed to be waiting for more results before weighing in on social media, with only the League leader Matteo Salvini tweeting "My first word: THANK YOU."

Bad news for EU unity

The poll is being closely scrutinized by European leaders who are concerned by the increasingly euro-skeptical sentiment and fearful of any instability in the Eurozone's third-largest economy.

If projections are accurate, the result means that Italy could be plunged into months of further political deadlock that could have broader implications for Europe -- both the League and the Five Star Movement are anti-EU parties.

One of the main issues in the election has been the surge in undocumented immigrants entering Italy, one of the main entry points into Europe from migrants from Africa and Asia.

The narrative around immigration took a darker turn after a man linked with neo-fascist political parties apparently went on a shooting rampage targeting African migrants in the town of Macerata. The incident fueled serious political debate about how the country is reconciling its fascist past.

Sweeping change

The populist parties' gains in the polls were not lost on US President Donald Trump's former strategic adviser Steve Bannon, who was in Rome to observe the elections.

Bannon said in an interview with Italy's Corriere della Sera newspaper that an alliance between the anti-immigrant League party and the populist Five Star Movement was "the ultimate dream."

"This election is crucial for the global populist movement" he said, saying it was an issue of "sovereignty" for Italians opposed to immigration.

Another far-right politician, France's Marine Le Pen, tweeted that the projected results signaled an anti-EU sentiment in the southern European country.

"The European Union is going to have a horrible evening," she said in the post.

Final results are expected at 2 p.m. local time (8 a.m. ET). The real work will begin once all the final votes are through and negotiations begin for a coalition.

Italy's Election has Potential for Cataclysmic Outcome, Watchers Worry

By Jonathon Gatehouse, CBC News 

Forza Italia leader Silvio Berlusconi, centre, flanked by Fratelli D'Italia party leader Giorgia Meloni, left, and Northern League leader Matteo Salvini during a meeting in Rome on Thursday. (Alessandro Bianchi/Reuters)

Italy election unease

In the 73 years since the end of the Second World War, Italy has had 65 governments.

So you would think the world would be a little more blasé about the outcome of this Sunday's national elections.

They are, after all, likely to result in yet another "pizza parliament" and a hard-to-manage coalition government — either the centre-right option controlled by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, or the centre-left option under the ruling Democratic Party and another former PM, Matteo Renzi.

Police battle students at a rally opposing neo-fascists in Milan on Feb. 24, ahead of the March 4 election. Thousands of police have been deployed for protests in Rome, Milan and other Italian cities, tasked with preventing clashes during an election campaign that has increasingly been marked by violence. (Matteo Bazzi/Associated Press)

Both of which could be joined, or toppled, by the anti-politics Five Star Movement led by Luigi di Maio, a 31-year-old college dropout who has never held a full-time job.

Leader of Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), Luigi Di Maio, may be a deciding force in terms of which party forms a coalition government. (Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images)

But there are a remarkable number of potentially cataclysmic outcomes being predicted by the pundits:

The return of fascism. Immigration and the migrants trying to reach southern Italy by sea have been a focal point of the campaign, and far-right parties like Brothers of Italy have taken a Trumpist "Italy First" approach. Another, Forza Nuova, marches around giving the old straight-armed salute. And Benito Mussolini's granddaughter, Alessandra, has been busy campaigning for Berlusconi's Forza Italia party.

A strong result by anti-European Union parties, like the far-right Northern League, which could in turn drag down the euro. Or even lead to Italexit.

Leader of the Democratic Party and former PM Matteo Renzi

A big win for Vladimir Putin. Berlusconi and the Russian president are buds. The Northern League thinks sanctions against the Kremlin hurt the Italian economy. And the Five Star Movement has traditionally been unenthusiastic about NATO, and may be benefiting from Russian-funded Twitter bots and trolls.

Further widening of Italy's already gaping rich-poor divide. Thirty per cent of the population -- almost 18 million people -- are already judged to be at risk by the national statistics agency, and the economy shows little sign of improving.

The most likely scenario?

After a brief period of business-as-usual chaos, yet another election.

Terrorist ‘Teacher’ Found Guilty of Grooming ‘Army of Children’ to Attack London Landmarks

It's absolutely shocking that this went on in London for 5 years

A self-styled teacher and supporter of Islamic State has been found guilty of trying to create an “army of children” more than a hundred-strong to help carry out a wave of terrorist attacks across London.

The defendant, 25-year-old Umar Haque was convicted of preparing acts of terrorism between March 25 and May 18 last year. Among his intended targets were iconic British landmarks including Big Ben, the Queen's Guard and Heathrow Airport.

Haque subjected up to 110 children between the ages of 11 and 14 to beheading videos and other violent militant propaganda under the guise of teaching Islamic Studies, the court heard.

Despite the fact Haque had no teaching qualifications, he had access to 250 young people over five years at two schools through his job as an administrator. Among the schools where he taught, was the fee-paying Lantern of Knowledge Islamic school in Leyton, and Essex Islamic Academy, also known as Ripple Road Mosque, in east London.

Police believe he potentially tried to radicalize 110 children. “His plan was to create an army of children to assist with multiple terrorist attacks throughout London,” said Dean Haydon, head of the Metropolitan Police’s Counter Terrorism Command. “He tried and he did, we believe, radicalize vulnerable children from the ages of 11 to 14.”

The children were forced to re-enact last year’s deadly Westminster attack and were trained to build up their strength. “He tried to prepare the children for martyrdom by making them role-play terrorist attacks. Part of that role-playing was re-enacting attacking police officers,” Haydon said.

Haydon said the children were sworn to secrecy and did not tell their parents, as they had been “paralyzed by fear.” Haque threatened that they would suffer the same fate as those in the militant videos he showed them. Thirty-five of the affected children are now undergoing long-term safeguarding measures involving social services and other authorities.

Haque first came to the attention of authorities at Heathrow Airport in 2016, when terrorist-related material was uncovered on his phone and he became the target of police and an MI5 investigation.

"We decided to intervene early and arrest him for what we thought was his longer-term aspirational attack plan and we then uncovered other offenses regarding the radicalization of children," Commander Haydon told Sputnik.

Prosecutors said that the defendant planned to use guns and a car packed with explosives to strike targets such as Big Ben, the Queen’s Guards, Westfield shopping center, banks, and media stations.

Haque was found guilty at London’s Old Bailey Court of a number of offences including preparing terrorist acts, having previously pleaded guilty to four charges. As he was dragged from the dock he shouted: "You will clearly see Islamic State establish itself in the Arabian peninsula and that droughts will affect Europe and America."

He will be sentenced at a later date. Two other men, Abuthaher Mamun – a 19-year-old who also taught at the mosque and 27-year-old Muhammad Abid – were convicted of assisting Haque.

Following the verdict, the UK Charity Commission confirmed that a statutory inquiry into the Essex Islamic Academy is underway. The inquiry opened in October 2017 but was not made public for fear of prejudicing the trial. An inquiry into Lantern of Knowledge has also been launched, which will be commencing on February 17.

Should these Islamic Schools be permitted to continue teaching when they allow extremists to radicalize the children? Should any Islamic schools be permitted to continue in the UK? How do they help integration? How do they make Britain safer?

Keeping the Fires Burning: Poland's Government Cultivates a Siege Mentality to its Benefit

Poland's conservative government is very popular in Poland, not-so-much elsewhere. I agree with their refusal to take more Islamic immigrants and for standing up to the EU in that regard. I also agree that they were victimized by the Nazis in WWII just as France was. But France had a powerful and courageous underground that fought the Nazi occupation; I'm not aware that such existed in Poland, if it did, it should be raised in profile.

But France also had those who collaborated with the Nazis; some because it was the best thing to do for France, and some because it was expedient and opportunistic. Some in France outed Jews and sent them on their way to... Poland! No doubt, some in Poland also cooperated with the Nazis for their own benefit. This cannot be swept under the rug.

There is also the matter that antisemitism seems to have infiltrated the Polish government. While they argue that they were not responsible for the genocide of millions of Jews, their recent actions have all the earmarks of antisemitism thereby undermining their attempts to whitewash their image.

Ruling Law and Justice party is polling just under 50% approval, way up from last election in 2015

By Don Murray, CBC News 

Members of the Solidarity trade union in Warsaw protest against EU objections to a new law by Poland's right-wing government lowering the retirement age. Relations with the European Union have been tense. (Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images)

How do you douse the fires of controversy? You light a new blaze right next to it. Or perhaps two.

That seems to be the approach of the Polish government in the wake of the controversy unleashed by a new law criminalizing the use of words like "Polish death camps" to describe the Holocaust and the death of six million Jews during the Second World War.

The death camps situated in Poland were not Polish, the government says, but Nazi. To say otherwise is now to break the law in Poland.

International criticism was swift

The World Jewish Congress, in addressing the law, said it had set off a "firestorm of ill will." The new Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, tried to deflect the criticism but only made things worse when he referred to "Jewish perpetrators" who had been guilty, along with others, of Holocaust crimes.

The Polish government backpedalled, suggesting the new law was in a sort of state of suspended animation while the country's constitutional court looked at it.

But to keep the flames burning, the government has put an animal rights bill before Parliament that would effectively ban the kosher slaughter of meat for religious Jews in the country and for export.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says anti-Polish sentiment around the world has been gaining power because Poles haven't reacted enough. Now it's reacting.

(Thomas Kienzle/AFP/Getty Images)

And, lighting another fire, Poland's senior senator, Stanislaw Karcewski, sent out an open letter telling Poles abroad to document any "slander" of their nation and report it.

"Please document and react to all anti-Polish hostility, expressions and opinions that harm us. Notify our embassies, consulates and honorary consuls of any slander affecting the good reputation of Poland," Mr Karczewski's letter said.

The intensity of the reaction to these moves may have surprised Poland's  governing Law and Justice party, but not overly so. It sees the outside world as hostile.

"Anti-Polonism around the world has been gaining in power because of a lack of reaction from Poland and the weakness of this reaction for the last 10 years." Those are the words of Prime Minister Morawiecki in the wake of the recent uproar.

Polish trade unionist Lech Walesa with a crowd of workers in Zyrandow, Poland, on Dec. 18, 1981. A heroic figure at the time, Walesa and his peers have lately been described by Law and Justice party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski as 'Poles of the worst sort' who served foreign interests. (Keystone/Getty Images)

And one of the authors of the Holocaust bill, deputy justice minister Patryk Jaki, welcomed the fight. "There comes a time when our country needs catharsis," he said.

None of this has hurt the country's leadership in the polls. On the contrary, more than half of voters say they are satisfied with the president and the prime minister and those numbers are climbing.

And the ruling Law and Justice party, profiting from a booming economy and increased social welfare payments to constituents, is polling just under 50 per cent approval. That's way above the 35 per cent it won in elections in 2015.

This right-wing Polish government cultivates a siege mentality.

To be fair, it actually is under siege — from its big political brother, the European Union. Poland is a member, one of 28, of the EU, and with a population of 38.5 million, it's a major player.

It's also a difficult player.

Law and Justice party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski's core conviction is that the entire Polish elite after the fall of communism in 1990 betrayed the country, a failure characterized by 'post-communist pathologies.'

(Janek Skarzynski/AFP/Getty Images)

The present government has refused to take its quota of refugees agreed to by the EU in 2016. The country, it believes, must remain Catholic and white.

It has also taken aim at its own court system after moving quickly to bring to heel the country's public television networks. They are now run by party loyalists.

The ruling party first set out to replace the country's highest judges with its own nominees. It radically lowered the retirement age for supreme court judges to 65, which would remove 40 per cent of them. It also moved to take control of the judicial council that appoints judges.

Threat of sanctions

Ministers say the legal system is too slow, with judges overpaid and infected with ideas from the past.

These moves alarmed the EU. It has taken Poland, along with Hungary and the Czech Republic, to court for refusing to respect the agreement on refugees. And for the first time the European Commission has invoked Article 7 of the EU constitution against Poland.

It argues Poland is failing to uphold the democratic norms it agreed to when it joined in 2004.

On Feb. 27, the commission renewed its threat of sanctions — the loss of voting rights and possibly European subsidies. That could be major, since Poland is the biggest EU beneficiary with a total of $100 billion in subsidies scheduled between 2014 and 2020.

"The clock is ticking," the German European Affairs Minister Michael Roth said. "The EU is very concerned about the rule of law situation."

The Polish government seems much less concerned. "Europe has run out of gas," Prime Minister Marowiecki told the German magazine Der Spiegel in February.

In the next breath he insisted Poland doesn't want to imitate Britain by leaving the union. It simply wants a more decentralized, less intrusive EU. And he offered no concessions.

That's because it knows it has an ally, Hungary, which has said it's ready to veto any attempt to penalize Poland.

The Polish government also believes it's on a mission, directed by Law and Justice party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

Kaczynski's core conviction is that the entire Polish elite after the fall of communism in 1990 betrayed the country.

'Treason in their genes'

The last 28 years have been, in his words "a failure" characterized by "post-communist pathologies."

The men and women who led the country, including Lech Walesa, Poland's first post-communist leader, were "Poles of the worst sort" with "treason in their genes."

They set up a para-democracy serving foreign interests, he believes. The EU is a Trojan horse serving those interests. The judges his government wants to get rid of are infected with these pathologies.

The Polish Holocaust law was born from the same drive to correct the past. Poland, in the eyes of its government, was a "victim nation" and its reputation is spattered with unthinking association with death camps.

"He who controls the past controls the future," George Orwell once wrote ironically in the book 1984. It's a dictum Poland's ruling party takes completely seriously.