Italy's Election has Potential for Cataclysmic Outcome, Watchers Worry

By Jonathon Gatehouse, CBC News 

Forza Italia leader Silvio Berlusconi, centre, flanked by Fratelli D'Italia party leader Giorgia Meloni, left, and Northern League leader Matteo Salvini during a meeting in Rome on Thursday. (Alessandro Bianchi/Reuters)

Italy election unease

In the 73 years since the end of the Second World War, Italy has had 65 governments.

So you would think the world would be a little more blasé about the outcome of this Sunday's national elections.

They are, after all, likely to result in yet another "pizza parliament" and a hard-to-manage coalition government — either the centre-right option controlled by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, or the centre-left option under the ruling Democratic Party and another former PM, Matteo Renzi.

Police battle students at a rally opposing neo-fascists in Milan on Feb. 24, ahead of the March 4 election. Thousands of police have been deployed for protests in Rome, Milan and other Italian cities, tasked with preventing clashes during an election campaign that has increasingly been marked by violence. (Matteo Bazzi/Associated Press)

Both of which could be joined, or toppled, by the anti-politics Five Star Movement led by Luigi di Maio, a 31-year-old college dropout who has never held a full-time job.

Leader of Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), Luigi Di Maio, may be a deciding force in terms of which party forms a coalition government. (Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images)

But there are a remarkable number of potentially cataclysmic outcomes being predicted by the pundits:

The return of fascism. Immigration and the migrants trying to reach southern Italy by sea have been a focal point of the campaign, and far-right parties like Brothers of Italy have taken a Trumpist "Italy First" approach. Another, Forza Nuova, marches around giving the old straight-armed salute. And Benito Mussolini's granddaughter, Alessandra, has been busy campaigning for Berlusconi's Forza Italia party.

A strong result by anti-European Union parties, like the far-right Northern League, which could in turn drag down the euro. Or even lead to Italexit.

Leader of the Democratic Party and former PM Matteo Renzi

A big win for Vladimir Putin. Berlusconi and the Russian president are buds. The Northern League thinks sanctions against the Kremlin hurt the Italian economy. And the Five Star Movement has traditionally been unenthusiastic about NATO, and may be benefiting from Russian-funded Twitter bots and trolls.

Further widening of Italy's already gaping rich-poor divide. Thirty per cent of the population -- almost 18 million people -- are already judged to be at risk by the national statistics agency, and the economy shows little sign of improving.

The most likely scenario?

After a brief period of business-as-usual chaos, yet another election.

Italy's Anti-Corruption Five Star Movement Facing Allegations of... Corruption

Corruption is Everywhere - even in ***** Italy

Five Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio speaks during a political rally in Naples, Italy, on February 12, 2018.

© Ciro De Luca / Reuters

After fighting against corruption, Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement has a lot to answer for. Around 10 of its MPs have apparently been busted for running a scam to dodge €1 million in financial obligations.

MPs for the party have an obligation to pay half of their salaries into a fund which helps small- and medium-sized businesses. The donations were founded on Five Star's belief that Italian politicians are overpaid.

But actions speak louder than words, and it appears the actions of some 10 lawmakers didn't exactly match up with their commitments. That's according to an investigation by the television program Le Iene (The Hyenas), which airs on a TV station owned by right-wing political rival and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

The report said that instead of doing their part, the MPs simply drew up bank orders for the money to leave their accounts. This provided them with receipts to show party bosses, and the transfers also showed up on a website created for transparency. But once all that was done, they merely canceled the transfers and kept the money for themselves.

“We gave back €23 million [US$28 million], while the others pocketed every cent,” party leader Luigi Di Maio said, as quoted by Reuters. He added that he had personally contributed some €370,000 of pay or benefits, and vowed to "root out bad apples."

One MP has already suspended his Five Star membership following the revelation. Two others admitted to not paying enough, but later made up their contribution, according to party MP Barbara Lezzi, who said she was "shocked" and "devastated" to find that fellow party members hadn't given their fair share when she has "paid everything."

Meanwhile, Matteo Renzi, the leader of the ruling center-left Democratic Party and a former prime minister of Italy, accused Di Maio of leading a movement of "scroungers and fraudsters," while urging Italians not to vote for the party in next month's elections.

The Five Star Movement, which has recently enjoyed a surge in popularity, has campaigned on eradicating corruption from Italian politics. It is predicted to win 27 to 28 percent of the vote in the upcoming election on March 4, compared to 22 to 23 percent for the ruling Democratic Party.