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Fyodor Lukyanov: Russia has made a breakthrough with NATO
At least in the current state of tensions, both sides now know where they stand
By Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
FILE PHOTO. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Russian Deputy Defence Minister Colonel-General Alexander Fomin and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Of Russia, Alexander Grushko attend the NATO-Russia Council in Brussels, Belgium on January 12, 2022. © Getty Images / NATO
The rapid descent of Russia’s relations with the West seems to have only just started, but has already shown something of a silver lining. The standoff over NATO expansion could arguably be a blessing in disguise, as it very swiftly removed the layer of hypocrisy with which these relations have been thickly coated. The varnish was a mix of two-facedness, double-talk and self-delusion, with a fair share of ideological dogma. The quantity of the ingredients in the recipe was a matter of taste, but the mix remained mostly the same.
When Moscow chose not to mince its words any longer, it produced quite a shock. Suddenly, it made little sense and served no purpose to continue weaving politically correct narratives with more meaningless statements. The cladding fell off the building, revealing its underlying structure – one where at least both sides can see the state of decay for what it is.
This deteriorating state of bilateral ties has produced a few curious findings. The most interesting of them is that NATO’s expansion over the past 25 years has done nothing to make the bloc stronger as a political or military power. In terms of military capacity, it has welcomed a number of countries that have very little to contribute to the joint force but, at the same time, enjoy equal privileges as to the assistance they can receive according to the charter. In political terms, the situation is even more complicated.
NATO has expanded to the point where its members have fallen out of sync on the subject of threats. Indeed, it is hard to think of a threat that would be of equal concern to, let’s say, Canada and Portugal, Lithuania and Greece, or Turkey and Iceland. NATO’s long-term search for a unifying mission that could replace the Cold War agenda has remained fruitless due to such diversity of interests among its member states. As long as the situation on the global scene remained calm, the disagreements were addressed by way of discussions from summit to summit and a lot of red tape. When it came to the bloc’s involvement on the ground (in Yugoslavia and further afield), there was always a group of nations that took the lead while the rest provided symbolic support.
When post-Cold War geopolitics took a turn towards conflict with post-Soviet Russia, it seemed that this had finally provided the solution to NATO’s decade-long search for a mission. Things had come full circle, just gone back to the old track. However, it didn’t and couldn’t work that way anymore. The ‘new old’ adversaries depend on each other these days a lot more than they did during the Cold War era. The Moscow-NATO standoff concerns those same states that fall under the bloc’s enlargement policy, which aims to serve as a foundation for European security. It’s the very same policy that was an outcome of the Cold War and affected its losers, including the post-Soviet republics and Europe’s post-Socialist states. NATO’s security guarantees say the entire bloc is ready to oppose Russia if called on to do so by its Eastern Europe member states – or at least that’s the way it should be.
However, this is where the diversity of interests comes into play as a factor, as too many member states don’t consider such a situation an imminent threat to themselves, even when they choose to formally back the cause. For them, whatever happens in Eastern Europe is too far away and rooted too deep in a history they’re not a part of, so why take on the risk? This lack of alignment among member states is nothing to worry about in quiet times, but in times of trouble, NATO needs to take a stand – and all the more so now those states seeking protection from alleged Russian aggression are publicly demanding proof of the bloc’s promised solidarity. It can’t go back on its promises publicly without undermining its own foundations.
In other words, when NATO formulated its enlargement policy, it never really expected the security guarantees it extended to be called in by anyone in the long run. When it comes to a real crisis and the bloc’s leading powers start talking war, lots of allies stop seeing the fun in the entire affair and begin thinking along the lines of ‘do we really need this?’ If that happens when a NATO member state calls for help, what can be said of pleas for help from non-members, even when the massive propaganda had them thinking they were just a step away from being on board?
A recent incident in which the German navy chief had to resign over some remarks he didn’t word too carefully while on a visit to India reveals a lot about the situation. The doubts he expressed over the growing standoff made sense, which means he can’t possibly have been the only one to have had them. Rather, it was a question of priorities and national interests. Why add fuel to the conflict with Russia when the world is changing, and the change is no longer in favour of Europe or Germany, while China is rising as a new powerful and not necessarily friendly force on the global scene? It makes even less sense given the challenging social and economic situation, so why bother making it even worse by severing ties with a key energy supplier and an important economic partner?
Over the decades, NATO has undergone a peculiar transformation. During the Cold War, the bloc spoke very firmly of its readiness to engage the Communist threat while it never had to actually do so. As a result, it developed a very positive image. Later, it departed from its militaristic rhetoric and began promoting itself as a tool for stability and political transformation. The paradox was that it then had to finally do some military duty – in Yugoslavia, then in Iraq and Libya. Given that, all the talk about NATO policies being strictly defensive no longer had a leg to stand on. Now it has arrived at a point where some of its scared allies are asking it to use force and prove itself as a military organisation – however, it isn’t too keen to oblige, it seems.
Russia’s recent moves have forced NATO to give up rhetorical exercises and begin revisiting its objectives and interests, as well as to test the limits of how far it would be willing to go – in real terms, not as a PR stunt. And that’s already a breakthrough.
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Portugal re-elects socialist prime minister as far-right gains ground
By Adam Schrader
António Costa, Prime Minister of Portugal and leader of the Socialist Party (PS), celebrates the victory in the 2022 legislative elections, Lisbon, Portugal on Monday. More than 10 million voters living in Portugal and abroad were called to vote Sunday. Photo by Miguel A. Lopes/EPA-EFE
Jan. 31 (UPI) -- Socialist Prime Minister António Costa won re-election to his third consecutive term during the general election in Portugal on Sunday as the new far-right party Chega took ground in the country's Parliament.
The Socialist Party won about 41.7% of the vote, giving them an absolute majority in Parliament for the first time since taking power six years ago, the Portugal Resident reported. The party now controls at least 117 seats in the 230-seat Parliament.
"The Portuguese have confirmed that they want a Socialist Party government for the next four years," Costa said after his win, according to Politico. "They want stability, certainty and security."
The Social Democratic Party, the country's center-right party, held on to second place with 27.8% of the votes -- the same share earned in the 2019 general election, Politico reported.
Chega, which was founded in 2019 by André Ventura, increased its share of the vote from 1.3% in 2019 to 7.2% in 2022 after taking votes from the right-wing CDS-People's Party. With its share of the votes, Chega secured 12 seats in Parliament -- up from just one in 2019.
The growth of the far-right party serves as a sign that it could be a future force in Portuguese politics.
"This is bittersweet. I'm happy with Chega's growth," Ventura told Politico. "[But] António Costa will stay on as prime minister."
Ventura told the Portugal Resident that his party would serve as the opposition to Costa's government because the Social Democratic Party "hasn't done its job."
"It won't be that cuddly opposition," he said. "Everything will be different in Parliament. There will be [a party] telling the truth."
The last time that the Socialist Party had an absolute majority was during the government of former Prime Minister José Sócrates from 2005 to 2011, which was the target of high-profile corruption investigations.
The other party to make gains during the general election was the Liberal Initiative, another new party founded in 2019. The Liberal Initiative, which is a pro-business liberal/libertarian party, earned 5% of the vote share.
Fortress Europe - Fencing out the migrants
Paris - With Poland starting work on a 353-million-euro ($407 million) wall along its frontier with Belarus, we look at other border barriers that have sprung up across Europe, particularly since the migrant crisis of 2015.
- Greek-Turkish border -
In 2012, Greece built two three-metre tall barbed wire barriers along 11 kilometres (seven miles) of its frontier with Turkey, which has previously been mined.
Greece became the main point of entry into the European Union for migrants when its economy collapsed after the financial crisis of 2009. Many crossed the River Evros, which forms a natural barrier along much of the 150-kilometre-long border.
In 2020, after Turkey "opened the doors" for migrants to enter the EU, Athens begins building an "impenetrable" 40-kilometre (25-mile) extension to the barrier, which was completed in August.
Greek soldiers also guard a one-kilometre-deep military zone along the border, interspersed with towers and surveillance equipment.
Graphic of the barrier Poland is building along its border with Belarus
- Bulgarian-Turkish border -
In 2014 Bulgaria put up a 30-kilometre barbed wire fence along its border with Turkey as migrants flock there to avoid the perilous Mediterranean Sea crossing.
Four years later the fence is extended to cover almost all of the 259-kilometre border.
Map of border walls in Europe
- Hungary-Serbia, Hungary-Croatia barriers -
During the 2015 migrant crisis, as more than a million people fleeing wars and poverty try to reach Europe, barriers spring up across the Balkan route to stop them.
Hungary's populist government, led by Viktor Orban, throws up a four-metre, 175-kilometre barbed wire fence along the frontier with Serbia before building another, 120 kilometres long, along Hungary's border with Croatia.
- Slovenia-Croatia border -
In the weeks that followed, Slovenia closed off nearly a third of its 640-kilometre border with Croatia with barbed wire. It has since built a fence along parts of the route near towns and tourist areas.
- Greek-North Macedonia border -
In November 2015, with thousands of migrants crossing its southern border through fields around Gevgelija, Skopje built a three-kilometre metal barrier to slow them. Another followed further to the west near Medzitlija and a third near Lake Dojran in the south east. Between them they now cover more than 32 kilometres.
- Austria-Slovenian border -
Austria put up an anti-migrant barrier on part of its border with Slovenia in December 2015, the first within the Schengen area, where they are no passport checks.
Another smaller one follows on the Brenner Pass with Italy. Both have since become overgrown with vegetation and breached with gaps for walkers, wildlife and local farmers.
- France's Calais fences -
France built about a dozen kilometres of formidable "anti-intrusion" walls and fences around its northern port of Calais and the entrance to the Channel Tunnel to stop migrants crossing to Britain.
Most migrants now try to cross the Channel in small boats, with a record 1,185 attempting the crossing one day in November 2021.
- Spain: Ceuta and Melilla -
The Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla on the northern Moroccan coast are Europe's only land border with Africa. Both are surrounded by kilometres of fences and barbed wire, with charities repeatedly criticising the use of razor wire around Melilla.
Factfile on the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Mellila
By Florence De Marignan
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