Merkel and Allies Lose Votes but Hang on in German Elections as Right-Wing AfD Surges

Elections in 2 states - AfD virtually doubles vote count in one

and triples in the other

Journalists watch first exit polls following the regional state elections in Saxony and Brandenburg in Berlin

© Reuters / Fabrizio Bensch

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU and coalition partners SPD have managed to cling to power in two crucial state elections. However, these former strongholds have seen a surge in support for Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The states of Saxony and Brandenburg – once part of former Eastern Germany or DDR– have long been considered bastions of support for Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and the left-wing Social Democrats (SPD). However, parliamentary election results on Sunday have dealt another blow to the so-called ‘Grand Coalition.’

Saxony has been ruled by CDU prime ministers since the 1990s and is considered by some as the party’s spiritual home. However, the CDU saw its support drop to 32 percent on Sunday, down 7.4 points since the last election in 2014, according to an exit poll by German broadcaster ARD. While the party remains the largest in the state, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) came a close second, taking 27.5 percent of the vote on Sunday, up from 9.7 percent in 2014.

Europe Elects

@EuropeElects

Germany (Saxony regional election), FGW exit poll:

Age group: 18-29

AfD-ID: 22%

GRÜNE-G/EFA: 19%

CDU-EPP: 17%

LINKE-LEFT: 12%

SPD-S&D: 7%

FDP-RE: 7%

Brandenburg encircles Berlin, and has been ruled by the SPD since German reunification in 1990. The AfD’s hopes of surrounding the German capital were dashed on Sunday, but not by a wide margin. The SPD won 27.5 percent of the vote, ahead of the AfD's 22.5 percent. In 2014, AfD only managed to score 12.2 percent, while the socialists took just under 32 percent.

While campaigning in Branderburg, AfD invoked the spirit of 1989 to win votes, printing posters bearing the slogan “Wende 2.0,” referring to the German word for 'turnaround,' used to describe the collapse of East Germany. While the party made a name for itself by vocally opposing Merkel’s 'open door' immigration policies, it has also positioned itself as a champion of the relatively disadvantaged east, protesting the planned closure of coal mines and calling for urban regeneration.

While Merkel's Open Doors policy is being blamed here for the surge in AfD support, I think they are missing the point. Open Doors certainly gave rise to the AfD, but the surge in support in 2019 probably has more to do with the handling of migrants since 2015. The government, courts, police and media policy of not naming the nationality of criminals, and going extra easy on them in the courts, has given rise to far-right neo-Nazi groups, but has also caused great disillusionment among average Germans. How can you trust a government that seems to do more to protect criminals than honest Germans?