Note: I am not defending Bashar al-Assad here; he is a butcher and a murderer. I am defending truth and sanity, neither of which is evident on the world stage right now.
The mess
Trump, May, Macron and other world leaders and ex-world leaders like Tony Blair are itching to teach Assad a lesson by risking war that would involve Russia and Iran. They seem to be in an extreme hurry to inflict their knee-jerk, emotional response before anyone even investigates to determine if it actually even happened.
That's how they responded to Khan Sheikoun and a year later they still can't definitively link a chemical attack to Assad. Assad would know that another chemical attack would result in a considerably more damaging response. He just isn't that stupid that he would provoke such a response especially just days after Trump mused about pulling troops out of Syria. That would have been a major win for Assad; only an idiot would have given the US an excuse to change their minds. An idiot, or an enemy!
There are still several rebel groups fighting in Syria against Assad. Some are supported by the USA, some by Saudi Arabia, some by Turkey, and possibly Israel, although I have seen no evidence or even suggestions of that. But Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel would all like to see the US stay in Syria. They would prefer Syria in a state of war rather than in a state of peace with Iran as a close ally. Iran is already rebuilding schools in Syria, Islamic schools, teaching Iran's version of Islam - Twelver Shia.
The term Twelver refers to its adherents' belief in twelve divinely ordained leaders, known as the Twelve Imams, and their belief that the last Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, lives in occultation and will reappear as the promised Mahdi. According to Shia tradition, the Mahdi's tenure will coincide with the Second Coming of Jesus Christ (Isa), who is to assist the Mahdi against the Masih ad-Dajjal (literally, the "false Messiah" or Antichrist). - Wikipedia
In reality, the Mahdi is the antichrist, or, at least, the False Prophet of Revelations, and will be destroyed when Jesus returns. Regardless of what you believe, Iranian leadership believes the 12th Imam is set to return soon and it is their responsibility to create absolute chaos in the world to set the stage. Former President Ahmadinejad was quite out spoken in this belief. His successor is less vocal about it but almost certainly believes the same thing, just as the Ayatollah does.
Who is responsible?
So, you can easily see why Turkey and Israel might not want such an influence on their borders. Iran is attempting to spread their influence elsewhere in the Middle East including Yemen. The proxy war they are fighting there puts them right on the border of Saudi Arabia, and the Kingdom does not like it much.
So, there are at least 3 major countries who do not want peace to break out in Syria, plus a number of rebel groups, any of which would prefer the Americans to remain and even become more destructive of Assad's forces.
They are all losing right now and, I'm sure, would do anything to reverse that trend. If that means gassing a few of their own women and children, well, that's a sacrifice they are willing to pay. Palestinians have been doing that for decades. Besides, they would be considered martyrs for Mohammed; why deprive them of that?
There are other possibilities, perhaps more remote, but I can't help but wonder if Deep State is involved in this. Deep State, I believe, represents many very wealthy manufacturers - vehicles, planes, weapons, etc., who found out way back in WWI that war is extremely profitable. Their influence is profound in most western governments and in NATO. This is not a conspiracy theory! Learn the influence that global industrialists had on WWII. They gleefully made vehicles, airplanes, ships, and weapons for all sides of the war. Hitler could never have accomplished his sweep of Europe without their help.
Whomever is behind the apparent use of chemicals in Douma, they are playing Trump, May, Macron and others for the fools they are. There is no moral imperative to punish someone who did nothing to deserve it; in fact, it is morally reprehensible.
It is very disappointing that Tony Blair has learned nothing from the fiasco in Libya and the disaster Khadaffi's murder had on both Libya and Europe with the hundreds of thousands of migrants crossing the Sahara through Libya. I used to like Tony Blair. I used to think he was reasonably intelligent. Now I just wonder if he is on drugs.
The consequences
As much as I hate the fact that Iran is involved in Syria, they have a right to be there having been invited by the legally elected government. Russia is also there by invitation and has, not only a right, but an obligation to be there as an ally. All other countries and rebel forces in Syria have no right to be there, including the USA.
If Trump attacks Syria again, as he did after Khan Sheikoun, only even more viciously, Russia and Iran have every right to respond. They might respond by attempting to shoot down American missiles, or they might respond by destroying bases from which planes or missiles are launched. This certainly means casualties! And, God forbid, they would attack Navy destroyers or submarines for launching cruise missiles. Then there would be serious casualties and the US would certainly respond in kind.
The sensible thing
The sensible thing would be to investigate the incident thoroughly and investigate it with the idea of not just proving it was a Syrian Army action, but that it was not a false flag operation intended to provoke a stupid, knee-jerk reaction by the west.
It is hard to believe that the west is that stupid. But there is always the possibility that they aren't that stupid but are just hoping their citizens are.
The WHO and the OPCW are both trying to get boots on the ground in Douma and Russia has guaranteed the OPCWs safety. Any western response prior to their preliminary reports would be nothing short of insane.
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