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Ukraine's fate is now tied to a tumultuous place:
the U.S. Congress
U.S. funding for Ukraine war is swept up in uncertainty,
but there are still 4 ways it could continue
Alexander Panetta · CBC News · Posted: Oct 05, 2023 1:00 AM PDT | Last Updated: October 5
U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office last month. The U.S. is overwhelmingly the top donor to Ukraine, but with Congress in limbo as Republicans search for a new House Speaker, it's not certain if that funding will continue. (Evan Vucci/The Associated Press)
The fate of Ukraine's war effort is now attached to an increasingly unpredictable place: the United States Congress.
The U.S. is overwhelmingly the top donor to Ukraine's self-defence and there's new uncertainty about whether that funding can continue.
That's because the House of Representatives is in limbo as Republicans search for a new leader following their unprecedented ouster of a House Speaker.
Whether the next House Speaker is as pro-Ukraine as the ejected Kevin McCarthy is by no means certain, as Republican support softens.
There are still several paths to delivering new aid. They range from parliamentary procedural manoeuvring, to political risk-taking.
None of these options is guaranteed to succeed, and none will happen immediately, all of which spells a period of extended anxiety in Kyiv as current U.S. funding will dry up over the fall.
Republican Kevin McCarthy has been ousted as the Speaker of the House of Representatives in an extraordinary showdown. Those who voted him out include Democrats and members of his own party.
Acknowledging these emerging jitters, U.S. President Joe Biden called world leaders earlier this week and also said he'll be delivering a speech on this topic.
"It does worry me," Biden said Wednesday of the suspension in funding.
He said he'll talk soon about potential short-term solutions. In the long run, he's appealing to the majority in Congress, which he says supports more Ukraine funding.
Biden's right — about three-quarters of U.S. lawmakers consistently vote for more Ukraine funds, and would undoubtedly back the president's request for $24 billion in additional funding.
But it's less clear that a vote will even happen. This may depend on the next Republican leader, and on the mood in the Republican Party.
Ukrainians react in Kyiv's Independence square on Oct. 1 during the minute of silence for soldiers killed during the war.
White House officials estimate current U.S. funding for Ukraine will last just a couple of months.
(Alex Babenko/The Associated Press)
The battlefield effects: Weeks or months
White House official John Kirby estimated current U.S. funding will last for about a couple of months and was more emphatic when asked whether Ukraine will be able to continue defending itself without American support.
"To be blunt … no," Kirby replied.
The U.S. has indeed supplied Ukraine with everything from medical bandages and goggles to tanks, missiles, drones, mine-clearing equipment, artillery and battlefield intelligence.
"The United States has unparalleled capabilities," said Mark Cancian, an expert on military budgeting at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and a retired marine and Defence Department official.
He offers a bleak assessment on what happens to Ukraine if that spigot is turned off.
In a few weeks, he says, it would be felt on the front lines. Equipment shortages would accumulate and get progressively worse. Eventually, he said, Ukraine would face pressure to negotiate a quick ceasefire under unfavourable terms.
President Joe Biden underlined U.S. support for Ukraine's fight against Russia as the country's president visited Washington for the second time since Russia invaded. But Volodymyr Zelenskyy does have some critics among Republicans, whom he tried to win over during his visit.
A retired U.S. Army colonel put it even more bluntly.
"It will guarantee defeat for Ukraine in this war and victory for Russia," said Gian Gentile, associate director of the Army Research Division in the Washington-area office of the U.S. government-funded RAND Corporation think-tank.
The Pentagon potentially still has several months worth of funding for Ukraine. But it's not so straightforward, as different programs exist and they're not funded equally.
In an email to CBC News, the U.S. military said it had zero funds left in a program that buys new weapons for Ukraine; $5.4 billion left to supply Ukraine with U.S. weapons; and insufficient funds, $1.6 billion, left for the U.S. to replace the weapons it sends Ukraine.
The situation in Congress
Ukrainians have ample reason to be watching next week when the House of Representatives meets to pick a new Speaker.
The Speaker wields huge power in deciding which bills come to the congressional floor for a vote, and which die on a shelf.
One aspiring Speaker is a vocal opponent of additional assistance for Ukraine, the populist partisan Jim Jordan of Ohio.
He's followed a trajectory similar to many in his party: in 2022, Jordan initially supported Ukraine funding, tweeting things like, "Pray for Ukraine. May God bless its brave citizens." And he praised Ukraine's president, but within months he'd become a critic and now gets the lowest possible score from a pro-Ukraine group that tracks congressional votes.
Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, is one aspiring Speaker who is a vocal opponent of additional assistance for Ukraine. He has noted the U.S. has bigger priorities at home. (Jacquelyn Martin/The Associated Press)
Jordan said Wednesday he opposes more funding for Ukraine, noting that the U.S. has bigger priorities at home.
"The most pressing issue on Americans' mind is not Ukraine — it is the border situation, and it is crime on the streets," he said.
In the other corner, there's rival Speaker candidate Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who has consistently voted for Ukraine funding while serving on McCarthy's leadership team.
It's worth noting that the last Speaker was emphatically pro-Ukraine. In his resignation news conference, McCarthy delivered an impassioned five-minute monologue comparing Vladimir Putin to Adolf Hitler and made clear his goal of supporting Ukrainian victory.
Moderate U.S. Republicans and Democrats approved a spending deal just hours before a government shutdown deadline on Saturday. The bill, presented by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has further infuriated hardline Republicans already seeking to push him from his post.
Yet even he'd been hesitant to bring up another vote.
Look no further than the events of this week to understand why. All it took was a small revolt by eight Republicans and McCarthy's speakership was over.
A Ukraine bill would trigger way more than eight naysayers, along with venom from some influential conservative commentators.
Nearly half of Republicans recently tried blocking future Ukraine aid, although most polls still show a clear majority backing U.S. efforts to arm Ukraine.
This creates a serious problem for Republican leaders, who have a five-seat majority in the House, and are in no position to risk triggering a revolt.
Just ask McCarthy.
Continue reading this article at "Four paths forward"
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As funding for the proxy war in Ukraine begins to dry up, America has found a unique way to allow the killing to continue. Anything seems better than talking to Putin about peace.
U.S. transfers 1.1M rounds of confiscated ammunition to Ukraine
By Darryl Coote
The United States this week transferred 1.1 million rounds of ammunition the U.S. Navy seized in the Arabian Sea in December. Photo courtesy of U.S. Justice Department
Oct. 4 (UPI) -- The United States transferred some 1.1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine that were confiscated in December while en route from Iran to militant groups in Yemen.
The transfer to Ukraine's armed forces was conducted Monday, U.S. Central Command said in a statement. But it comes at time when the future of U.S. backing for Ukraine's war in Russia may be in jeopardy by members of the Republican Party who are questioning future funds.
The munitions were seized along with rocket-propelled grenades and thousands of pounds of rocket-propelled-grenade propellant by U.S. Central Command naval forces from the flagless dhow Marwan 1 vessel in the Arabian Sea on Dec. 9.
U.S. officials said the weaponry was being transferred in violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2216 from Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to Houthi rebels who have been waging a civil war, with backing from Tehran, against the government since 2014.
Resolution 2216 was passed by the U.N. Security Council in April 2015 to impose sanctions on those accused of undermining the stability of Yemen.
Justice Department officials explained that the U.S. government filed a forfeiture action against the rounds in late March as part of its larger investigation into Iran's weapons-smuggling network.
The officials accused the network of being involved in trafficking advanced conventional weapons systems and their components by sanctioned Iranian entities, such as the IRGC, to support the Houthi rebels in Yemen as well as Tehran's other destabilizing activities in the region.
"The forfeiture complaint alleges a sophisticated scheme by the IRGC to clandestinely ship weapons to entities that pose grave threats to U.S. national security," the Justice Department said in a March press release.
The United States took ownership of the rounds on July 20, the department said.
"With this weapons transfer, the Justice Department's forfeiture actions against one authoritarian regime are now directly supporting the Ukrainian people's fight against another authoritarian regime," Attorney General Merrick Garland said Wednesday in a statement.
"We will continue to use every legal authority at our disposal to support Ukraine in their fight for freedom, democracy, and the rule of law."
"The Rule of Law"? Ukraine? Ukraine is not ready to join the EU because it is “corrupt at all levels of society”, Jean-Claude Juncker, the former European Commission president, has said.
At a commitment of some $44 billion in security assistance, the United States is by far the largest backer of Kyiv's defense against Russia's war. But Congressionally approved funds are dwindling and the Biden administration has called on the lawmakers to pass billions in supplemental assistance.
However, Ukraine funding has grown controversial in the United States and Europe, and funds for Kyiv present an obstacle over the weekend to pass crucial funding to prevent a U.S. government shutdown.
Ultimately, the 45-day stopgap resolution lacked any funds for Kyiv.
On Tuesday, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters that the U.S. coffers hold funding to meet Ukraine's battle needs "for just a little bit longer," but that Congress must act to ensure there is no disruption in U.S. support.
On Wednesday, State Department principal deputy spokesman Vedant Patel mirrored the comments of her Defense Department counterpart.
"We cannot under any circumstances allow America's support for Ukraine to be interrupted," he said. "A lapse in support for even a short period of time could make all the difference in the battlefield, and so this is something that we're going to continue to work closely with our partners in Congress on and continue to coordinate directly."
The Pentagon will do anything to avoid talking to Putin. And it doesn't matter how many hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are killed.
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