Erdogan's Ottoman Empire Ambitions Suffering from His Own Eroding Base

Ajit Sahi

It is easy to understand Erdogan's desperate attempt to stoke religious sentiments by converting the Hagia Sophia museum into a mosque. With this decision, he is merely trying to deflect attention from Turkey's worsening economic situation over the last several years which is now bringing him electoral defeat after electoral defeat.

In fact, Erdogan is today politically at his weakest since first winning power in 2003. His party, the AKP, has been steadily losing support among the voters. Last year, his party was twice defeated in the mayoral election in Istanbul, Turkey's biggest and most populous city. When the first election saw the AKP candidate lose by a slim margin, Erdogan simply refused to accept that decision and forced his hand-picked election authorities to call a second election. The reelection, held three months after the first, saw the AKP lose by a decisive and massive margin. Erdogan's party also lost elections in many other cities.

There is no doubt that Erdogan has more support in Muslims outside of Turkey, who likely see in him the closest figure who can return a pan-Muslim (and pan-Islamic) rule like the Ottoman Caliphate once used to be, than in his own country. Like Narendra Modi, Erdogan, too, has tried to control independent pillars of democracy, from the judiciary to the central bank. Erdogan made his son-in-law the country's finance minister in 2018, and the economy has gone worse since then.

Last month, Turkey had an inflation rate of 12%, which is most certainly an under-assessment. Turkey's currency, the Lira, has fallen 13% against the US dollar this year. Last year, the Lira had fallen by 20% against the USD, and 20% the year before, in 2018. Whereas Erdogan led a massive economic expansion program from 2003, the picture is now far less rosy. In 2008, Turkey's share of the world's economy was 1.2%. Today, it is 0.89%.

Unemployment has been persistently high in Turkey. The government claimed this week that unemployment rate has fallen to 12.8% in May, which, though in itself high, is still underreporting. Unnerved by the coronavirus, Erdogan forbid businesses from sacking employees while allowing unpaid leave. So millions sitting at home without any income are counted as "employed".

In fact, the number of employed persons dropped by about 2.6 million people during March-May this year compared with the same period last year. The overall employment rate declined by nearly 5% to 41%. Worryingly, the youth unemployment rate, including people ages 15 to 24, rose 1.2% hitting 24.4% in April, the Turkish Statistical Institute said yesterday.

At the macroeconomic level, Turkey is steeped deep in debt. The government and the private corporations together owe nearly half a trillion dollars in debt. Turkey's overall GDP is only slightly higher at USD770 billion. With a falling economy, it is becoming harder for both the government and the private sector to service debt.

Across industry, margins of profit have sharply dropped. Investment has been continuously drying up. Businesspeople are postponing expansions. Even farming has hugely suffered under Erdogan.

That is why, like Modi, Erdogan has been muzzling free press, putting journalists and activists in prison, purging universities of independent-minded academicians, accusing every opponent of being a "Western plant".

Many non-Turkish Muslims think Erdogan is the chosen global leader for all Muslims. For now, however, Erdogan is just trying to save himself in Turkey, and all he can think of is turning a church-turned-mosque-turned-museum into a mosque in order to revive his support.

This First Nations Woman Refuses to Let Ottawa Help Hide Her Band's Finances

Charmaine Stick won her court case to force Onion Lake Cree Nation to make public the finances of the chief and band council

Charmaine Stick of the Onion Lake Cree Nation.Screen grab

Special to Financial Post
By Todd MacKay

It’s a bit odd for a happy dance to break out after a court ruling about financial reporting, but when Charmaine Stick got the decision from her lawyer, she held hands with her kids and did a little jig.

“This is a victory for all First Nations people out there who’ve been fighting for transparency and accountability,” said Charmaine. “In our culture, you know transparency and accountability is first and foremost, especially when you’re in leadership.”

Onion Lake Cree Nation was given 30 days to publish financial disclosures online as required by The First Nations Financial Transparency Act, according to a Saskatchewan Court of Queen’s Bench ruling released on June 15. The band’s lawyers are appealing, but Charmaine is confident that the decision will stand. She will then find out how much her chief and council are paid and what’s happening with her community’s finances. The ruling came after Charmaine partnered with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation to launch the court application last fall.

The First Nations Financial Transparency Act is simple: It requires First Nations to publish salaries and expenses for chief and council as well as basic financial documents online — the kind of information the rest of us can get with a Google search. The overwhelming majority of First Nations follow the law, but Onion Lake is one of six bands that have never complied. The previous Conservative government withheld non-essential funding from those bands, but the new Liberal government suspended all enforcement. 

Charmaine’s victory enforces the legislation and for her it’s a very personal victory. The stay-at-home mom went on a 13-day hunger strike to demand accountability from her leaders during the summer of 2014. They told her she’d never get anywhere. She now has judicial validation.

The most fascinating parts of this ruling are the arguments Onion Lake left out. Rather than contesting matters of fact, Onion Lake asked the court to stay Charmaine’s application until other court proceedings conclude. Justice B.A. Barrington-Foote rejected the stay application.

The minister can leave grassroots citizens like Charmaine to ask courts to enforce the law, while the government does nothing, or she can help

“There is no evidence before me as to the political or economic reasons why Onion Lake has refused to provide and post the specified information,” he wrote.

Opponents of The First Nations Financial Transparency Act often raise vague concerns that transparency causes economic harm, but hundreds of First Nations communities have disclosed that information and it’s obvious those fears are unfounded.

Another omission was even more conspicuous by its absence.

“Curiously, Onion Lake did not defend this application on the basis of the constitutional issues,” wrote Barrington-Foote.

In earlier legal battles, Onion Lake argued The First Nations Financial Transparency Act is unconstitutional. However, it failed to raise those arguments in relation to Charmaine’s application. In fact, those arguments have been on hold.

“Despite the passage of almost two and a half years since the action was commenced (by Onion Lake to challenge the constitutionality of the act), discoveries have not yet been scheduled,” wrote Justice Barrington-Foote.

It seems Onion Lake raised constitutional arguments as stalling tactics.

Charmaine’s victory puts pressure on Indigenous and Northern Affairs Minister Carolyn Bennett. The minister can leave grassroots citizens to ask the courts to enforce the legislation while the government does nothing. She can weaken the legislation to darken this newfound transparency. Or she can enforce the legislation and strengthen it with new protections such as an auditor general for First Nations communities.

But for Charmaine, future legal and political struggles can wait, because right now she’s celebrating, along with grassroots First Nations people across Canada.

Way to go Charmaine. You're a hero.