European parliamentary elections: What
a right-wing surge could mean for the EU
Polls show that Europe is facing a potential shift to the right in elections set for June 6-9, when millions of EU citizens will vote to elect new members of the European Parliament, a body crucial for shaping the bloc’s policies. With far-right parties likely to win greater influence, the vote could significantly affect political dynamics within the EU and its policies abroad.
As the world’s second-largest democratic vote after India, the European elections have the power to reshape the political landscape across the continent and beyond. From June 6-9, approximately 400 million EU citizens will head to the polls to elect new members of the European Parliament (MEPs).
The 720 legislators in the new parliament will have the power to shape policies on climate, migration, industry, defence and security. But they will also vote on what should be prioritised in the EU budget, which can be essential to policies like providing aid for Ukraine.
Once elected, MEPs will join supranational parliamentary “groups” according to ideology (greens, socialists, centre-right, far-right, etc.). The two largest parliamentary groups are usually the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D). But right-wing parties have been making significant inroads and are expected to do well in 2024, with the far-right Identity and Democracy party possibly becoming the third-largest group in the European Parliament.
A coalition of centre-right Christian democrats, conservatives and right-wing MEPs could thus be on track to hold a majority for the first time.
Foreign Policy
The influence that the European Parliament has on foreign policy is overshadowed by the European Council, which is made up of leaders from the 27 members states and has the final say on foreign policy. It is up to member states to decide jointly on sending munitions to Ukraine or to agree on imposing EU sanctions against Russia, for example.
“MEPs can vote on resolutions and political groups can put out calls to try and push something in a certain direction, but as such they do not have much competence on foreign policy,” says Sebastien Maillard, associate fellow of the Europe programme at international affairs think-tank Chatham House.
That does not mean the European Parliament is powerless on foreign policy, however. And as one arm of the EU’s budgetary authority, it has a say on EU spending priorities.
If the assembly sees a large shift to the right after the elections in June, calls for the EU to supply military assistance to Ukraine or humanitarian aid to Gaza could dwindle.
Political groups setting the agenda in the next European Parliament are likely to maintain their current stance on Ukraine. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Western states have backed military, financial and strategic aid for Kyiv.
But with a growing number of right-wing MEPs likely to join the assembly this year, Europe's staunchly pro-Ukrainian stance may begin to falter, given that many on the right are sympathetic to Russia.
National parties may also weaken their backing for Ukraine as a response to the shift in voter attitudes in the European elections; if voters opt for more pro-Russian MEPs, European leaders may be less staunch on the decision to back Ukraine.
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Brexit champion Farage to run in UK election,
further threatening Tory prospects
Nigel Farage, who helped champion Britain's departure from the European Union, said on Monday he would stand as a candidate in next month's election and will lead the right-wing Reform Party in a major blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Issued on:
The surprise U-turn by Farage, now a TV host, will boost his movement's profile and challenge Sunak's Conservatives for the support of right-leaning voters at a time when the governing party is already badly trailing the Labour Party in the polls.
Farage, 60, had previously said he would not stand in the July 4 vote in order to help Donald Trump fight the U.S. election later this year. But Farage said he changed his mind because he felt guilty not standing up for people who had become disillusioned with politics and had always backed him.
"We are going to be the voice of opposition, and I tell you what, I have done it before, I'll do it again, I'll surprise everybody," Farage told a news conference, saying it was a fait accompli that Labour would win but that he wanted to position Reform as its main opponent.
He said he would lead a "political revolt" in Britain because "nothing in this country works anymore", citing problems with public services such as healthcare and roads.
Although Farage has stood unsuccessfully for parliament seven times he is still one of the most influential British politicians of his generation, putting pressure on a succession of prime ministers to take tougher positions on the EU and on tackling immigration.
Selling Brexit
Shunned by the British political establishment and backed by Eurosceptic financiers, Farage helped sell Brexit to millions of voters in England and Wales who felt ignored by the main Conservative and Labour parties.
Although he was educated at an expensive school and worked as a commodities trader, he has cultivated an image of an anti-establishment figure. He is routinely pictured with a cigarette in one hand and a pint of beer in the other.
Farage, who has survived testicular cancer and a plane crash, will also take over as leader of Reform, replacing Richard Tice, who said before Farage took the stage the party wanted a way to "turn on the rocket boosters" to the election campaign.
Divisive and charismatic, Farage has previously made comments that his political opponents have called racist. Farage appeared in front of a poster during the Brexit campaign showing lines of migrants under the slogan "Breaking Point" and last month said Muslims did not share British values.
This is racist? Truth is racist? Good grief France24, you are hopelessly far-left.
At the last general election in 2019, Farage's party decided not to contest seats held by the Conservatives, then led by Boris Johnson, to avoid splitting the pro-Brexit vote.
Polls suggest the opposition Labour Party is on course for victory this time, with the Conservatives staring at one of the worst results in their history.
Support for Reform runs at about 10% nationally, giving the party the third highest vote share, polls show. But under Britain's winner-takes-all system, the party had not been expected to win any seats.
A poll earlier this year forecast the Conservatives would win Clacton with Reform coming third. One betting company said Farage had a 40% chance of winning the seat after his announcement.
Under pressure, Sunak has already tried to win over voters tempted by Reform with policies such as tax cuts for pensioners, the reintroduction of national service and his plan to send illegal asylum seekers to Rwanda.
Asked on Monday if he was worried about Farage entering the contest, Sunak said a vote for Reform would help Labour.
(Reuters)
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British PM Rishi Sunak vows to cap
immigration visas ahead of July election
The ruling Conservative party announced plans on Monday for new annual caps on work and family visas to cut immigration after the opposition laid out its plans for the key election issue.
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The plan laid out by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is predicted to lose to Labour's Keir Starmer in the July election, would involve a new cap on the number of visas that would be set by parliament each year.
Immigration is a highly contentious topic this election with net migration levels soaring to 685,000 last year, a figure that both main political parties have said is too high.
While lower than the figure in 2022, the level of net migration last year was still around three times higher than in 2019, when the Tories won the last election with a promise to slash migrant numbers.
Over the weekend, Starmer set out Labour's plans to cut regular migration by banning "bad bosses" who violate labour laws from bringing foreign workers to the country, and by requiring employers to prioritise training Britons first.
With a head-to-head debate due on Tuesday where Starmer and Sunak will face off on key issues for the first time during their campaigns, the prime minister's new policy seeks to set his party apart from Labour.
"We have taken bold action to cut the number of people coming to this country. The plan is working but migration levels are still too high, so we are going further," Sunak said in a statement.
"The Conservatives are the only party that is willing (to) take the bold action needed to cut immigration figures," he added.
The annual cap, which will progressively be lowered each year to cut migration numbers, will not affect foreign students and seasonal workers.
More than 300,000 work visas were given in the year ending March 2024, which is more than double the number granted in 2019, according to official statistics.
The Tory government has introduced new regulations this year to target regular immigration, including barring international students and social care workers from bringing dependents, and hiking the minimum salary for skilled worker visas.
While the tightened regulations led to a huge decline in the number of health and social care visa applications in May, according to interior ministry figures, care providers have warned that the sector is struggling to fill tens of thousands of vacancies.
Labour's shadow home minister Yvette Cooper dismissed the proposed policy as a "meaningless announcement".
The government has also targeted irregular migration through its flagship scheme to send failed asylum seekers to Rwanda, which Sunak has admitted will not be implemented before the election.
(AFP)
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