"For the time will come when they will not endure sound doctrine; but wanting to have their ears tickled, they will accumulate for themselves teachers in accordance to their own desires, and will turn away their ears from the truth and will turn aside to myths." Northwoods is a ministry dedicated to refreshing Christians and challenging them to search for the truth in Christianity, politics, sociology, and science
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Wednesday, December 11, 2024
Syria - What's Coming Next? > Jihadis destroy Arab U, in Damascus; Coup's leader; Key questions answered
Unconfirmed reports suggest the new jihad group in Damascus as vowed to keep pushing all the way to Jerusalem. That would fit nicely into a 'Last Days' scenario. But will they? Will they purge Syria of Christians? Will there be endless factions fighting for control. Is Syria a God-forsaken country?
This recalls the old legend of the caliph Umar destroying the library of Alexandria: "If the books in this library disagree with the Qur'an, they are heretical," the crafty Umar said. "And if they agree with it, they are superfluous."
The story is almost certainly unhistorical, but it encapsulates the truth about a persistent attitude among some Muslims.
This is not a good sign!
Report on the coup's leader from just before Damascus
Ahmed Al Sharaa, an Islamist militant in his late 20s, moved back to Syria from Iraq in 2011 with six men and a monthly stipend of $50,000 from Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who would go on to become the world’s most wanted terrorist. His mission was to establish Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat Al Nusra.
Sharaa is now commanding thousands of men in an armed rebellion threatening to topple the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He’s better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
Born in the Saudi capital Riyadh to Syrian parents from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and raised in Damascus, Jolani said in an interview with PBS in 2021 that he was galvanized by the Second Palestinian Intifada (uprising) against Israel in the early 2000s and went on to become a jihadist in Iraq after the 2003 US invasion. His deep knowledge of Syria caught the attention of his commanders in Iraq as they were looking to expand their foothold in Syria during the country’s uprising.
Over the years, his influence grew despite his identity being kept under wraps. During television interviews, he never faced the camera directly and always covered his face in public appearances.
His public debut was in a 2016 video when he announced a split from Al Qaeda to create what he said was a Syria-focused anti-regime front with other local factions, called Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (the Front for the Conquest of the Levant), which later changed to Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), or the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant.
“This new formation has no relation to any external party,” he said at the time, distancing it from his radical Islamist past.
The split was strategic. The goal was to fend off attacks from world powers like the United States and Russia, both of which had intervened in the Syrian civil war to target Islamist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS. It was also the start of Jolani’s gradual transformation from the classic anti-West jihadist, to a more palatable revolutionary. He told PBS in 2021 that he had no desire to wage war against Western nations.
Western-style blazer
In the years that followed, Jolani replaced his jihadist camo attire for a Western-style blazer and shirt, established a semi-technocratic government in Idlib, which his group held control over, and promoted himself as a viable partner in regional and Western efforts to curb Iran’s influence in the Middle East. He conducted operations against ISIS including the 2023 high-profile killing of ISIS leader Abu Hussein Al-Husseini al-Qurashi.
“I believe that everyone in life goes through phases and experiences…As you grow, you learn, and you continue to learn until the very last day of your life.” he said when CNN asked about his transformation....
A Syrian Christian woman was stopped at a checkpoint in Damascus and told by Islamist rebels that women are no longer allowed to leave the house without a male guardian, and that hijab is now mandatory.
Syria is quickly becoming Afghanistan 2.0.
After more than five decades in power, the al-Assad dynasty in Syria was toppled on Sunday as President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia and rebels took the capital Damascus.
Assad’s departure brought to a dramatic close his nearly 14-year struggle to hold onto control as his country fragmented in a brutal civil war.
While the rebel coalition was made up of several factions, the group believed to be leading the offensive across Syria is the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS.
The group is also a listed terrorist entity in Canada, which Canadian officials describe as “an Islamist group in Syria whose purported primary objectives are overthrowing President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria followed by the creation of an Islamic state under Sharia Law.”
The group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani — which is alternately spelled as al-Jawlani and al-Jolani — broke ties with al-Qaida in 2016. The U.S. National Counterterrorism Center says the break occurred over “strategic disagreements.”
In 2017, the Nusrah Front merged with other anti-Assad groups in Syria to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Joseph Varner, deputy director of the Conference of Defence Associations, said for al-Golani, al-Qaida was too extreme.
“The point of departure has always been that they found al-Qaida and ISIS as being too violent and not interested in civil rights,” Varner said.
The U.S. State Department designated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization in 2018, a designation it holds to this day.
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What does Syria’s future hold after Assad regime is overthrown?
Who is Abu Muhammad al-Golani?
Al-Golani’s ties to al-Qaida stretch back to 2003, when he joined insurgents battling U.S. troops in Iraq. The Syrian native was detained by the U.S. military but remained in Iraq, according to the Associated Press.
During that time, an al-Qaida splinter group formed called the Islamic State of Iraq, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
In 2011, a popular uprising in Syria against Assad triggered a brutal government crackdown and led to all-out civil war. Al-Golani’s prominence grew when al-Baghdadi sent him to Syria to establish a the Nusrah Front.
The U.S. government has put a US$10 million bounty on him.
In 2013, the Associated Press reported that al-Golani had defied al-Baghdadi’s calls to dissolve the Nusrah Front and merge it with al-Qaida’s operation in Iraq, to form the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.
As he entered Damascus behind his victorious fighters Sunday, he dropped his nom de guerre and referred to himself with his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, the Associated Press reported.
“Syria deserves a governing system that is institutional, not one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions,” he said in an interview with CNN last week, offering the possibility HTS would eventually be dissolved after Assad falls.
“Don’t judge by words, but by actions,” he said.
Ferry de Kerckhove, former Canadian diplomat and former Canadian ambassador to Egypt, said western nations might have to sit down at the table with al-Golani.
“He has a bounty of (US) $10 million that the Americans have put on him. I don’t know how he’s going to be received in various palaces in Europe and the states, but I think they’ll have to cancel that one because he is clearly a leader,” de Kerckhove said.
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Syrians in Vancouver celebrate the Assad regime’s fall
What are the early signs?
Since breaking with both al-Qaida and ISIS, al-Golani has sought to distance himself from both groups.
Evren Altinkas, adjunct professor at the University of Guelph, said al-Golani identified not only the Assad regime, but also ISIS as his enemy.
“Al-Golani understood the fact that if he continues to insist on his original Salafist Islamist ideology, he may not get the full support of Western media and world public opinion,” he said.
Altinkas said al-Golani has been aggressively pushing a message of moderation.
“(He wants to) tell the world and tell to the regional countries that he is not as he was before, and he wants to create a united, stable democracy in Syria. But, of course, it will be under the guidance of the Islamic rule.”
De Kerckhove said the early signs from al-Golani are encouraging.
“His very first measure, which I admire, was to allow the government to continue to run the show,” he said, referring to HTS’s decision to allow Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir to remain in office.
While his past as a former extremist commander has worried some observers, many are watching for what he has said in recent times.
In a recent interview with CNN, al-Golani said they would assure Christians and other religious and ethnic minorities would enjoy rights in Syria after Assad was overthrown.
“He’s saying all the right things that would give you hope,” Varner said.
He added, “He’s a bit of a chameleon. He swore loyalty to Zarqawi (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) then to Baghdadi (Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi) and broke with both and formed his own organization. Now he’s trying to look like a statesman. He’s a guy that changes with the times.”
2:18
World leaders watch Syria closely as celebrations spill onto the streets
What comes next?
HTS has controlled Syria’s northwestern Idlib region since 2018.
Observes say it could be a precursor to how they would govern Syria.
“Based on the reports that we have been receiving from that region, they have been fair towards other groups within the region,” Altinkas said.
However, he added that it isn’t enough to ascertain how they would treat minorities over a larger area. Many minority-dominated areas saw people leaving for other parts of Syria or going abroad during the civil war, he said.
HTS, which Altinkas said is seen as being backed by Turkey,will also have to take control of the Kurdish-controlled northern parts of the country to avoid a further escalation of conflict.
He said, “I believe Syria is a potential powder keg for conflict and for more proxy wars in the upcoming months if al-Golani cannot achieve his goals by bringing together all these groups and establishing a democratic state with elections.”
2:00
Montrealers celebrate fall of Assad regime in Syria
Why did they succeed?
The civil war in Syria has been raging since before HTS was formed.
So how did HTS succeed in doing what rebel groups haven’t managed to do for 14 years?
Varner said it was a question of getting the timing right, with Assad’s allies occupied with other conflicts.
“The Russians are very busy with Ukraine. The Iranians were heavily distracted by what was happening to Hezbollah. And I think Hezbollah has been severely damaged,” he said.
“Those three things set the circumstances for the rebel forces to march on Damascus. The Syrian army didn’t want to fight. After 14 years, they didn’t want to play the game. All the chickens came home to roost and the government fell.”
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