Climate Science is Corrupted - Award Winning Climate Scientist

By Timothy Ball, H. Sterling Burnett

Politics has corrupted climate science, with scientists in the field ignoring evidence a climate crisis is not occurring.

Editor’s Note: Timothy Ball, Ph.D., is a former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg in Manitoba, Canada, with a doctorate in climatology from the University of London, Queen Mary College, England. Much of his research has focused on the reconstruction of past climates and the impact of climate change on human history. Ball is also known for his academic and legal efforts to counteract what he calls the corruption of climate science. Ball was honored with the Lifetime Achievement in Climate Science award from The Heartland Institute at the 13th International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-13). 

Burnett: You’ve written books on climate science, including Slaying the Sky Dragon: Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory. What is the thesis of the book?

Ball: The original claim made was that global warming was inevitable due to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide from human activities, especially from industry. This hypothesis was based on the assumptions that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and that such an increase would result in a temperature increase.

The hypothesis ignored key facts. 

There are three main greenhouse gases: water vapor is 95 percent, carbon dioxide 4 percent, and methane 0.4 percent. 

The official position is humans produce water vapor but the amount is so small relative to the atmospheric total it is reasonable to ignore it. 

In every historic record, temperatures have increased prior to increases in carbon dioxide. Human production of carbon dioxide is within the error factor of estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from two natural sources: the oceans and rotting vegetation.

These facts, among others explored in my book, undermine the claim human carbon dioxide emissions are driving present climate change.

Burnett: You’ve written a book titled The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science, in addition to giving presentations on this topic at various ICCC events. What facts lead you to believe climate science has been corrupted?

Ball: Starting in 1998, the global temperature stopped increasing and began to decline slightly, despite the fact carbon dioxide levels continued increasing.

By 2004, the trends continued to contradict the assumptions. For example, the level of severe weather failed to increase.

In other words, the empirical evidence completely contradicted the hypothesis.

Instead of considering the null hypothesis, namely that carbon dioxide from humans was not causing warming, the claim was changed from human-caused “warming” to human-caused “climate change.” In fact, the null hypothesis was never even considered.

Most people think the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) examined all climate change. In fact, they were restricted by the definition given to them by the world Meteorological Organization (WMO) to only examining human causes. 

Why did WMO restrict research in anthropogenic causes? This was a political decision having nothing to do with science.

Water in all its forms is a critical part of the Earth and atmosphere systems, yet it is ignored.

There is insufficient data at the surface [of the Earth] to build an accurate computer model of global climate. The situation is even worse above the surface. All computer model predictions of the UN IPCC since 1990 have been wrong.

H. Sterling Burnett, Ph.D. (hsburnett@heartland.org) is a senior fellow at The Heartland Institute.

2016 Set to Become Hottest Year Ever Recorded, Meteorologists Say

“Another year. Another record,”

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said.

By Doug G. Ware


The World Meteorological Organization said Monday that preliminary data shows that 2016 is on track to become the hottest year ever recorded -- surpassing the previous high, set just last year. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo

GENEVA, Switzerland, Nov. 14 (UPI) -- Temperatures in 2016 are on track to make this year the hottest on record, a global collection of meteorologists said Monday.

The World Meteorological Organization released an evaluation report that said average temperatures this year are expected to top those recorded last year, when 2015 was listed as the hottest year ever seen.

"Another year. Another record," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement. "The high temperatures we saw in 2015 are set to be beaten in 2016.

There is no reasonable argument that can deny the global temperature is rising. That is obvious from many effects - ice coverage, glacial melt, storm intensities, warm blobs in the ocean, aside from the temperature measurements. That is important to me because I lack a lot of respect for the integrity of global temperature data.

That is a huge statement for me since I was responsible for some of the data that went into the Canadian Climate archives for many years. I spent many of the last several years of my career with Environment Canada's Meteorological Service fighting with head office to save the integrity of that very database, and I wasn't alone. I have an award on my wall honouring me for that fight. There was some limited success but for the most part the quality of data entering the Canadian Climate database deteriorated over the last few decades.

So, while I don't dispute the notion that global warming is happening, I question the accuracy of the measurements. 

I also question the cause that WMO is placing entirely on anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. They may very well contribute, but that has not been proven to my satisfaction. In fact, as Professor Murry Salby has displayed, in ancient history it is clear that maxima in CO2 in the atmosphere has followed maxima in global temperatures by 800 years.

"The extra heat from the powerful El Niño event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue."

This statement, however, can be challenged. Exactly what 'heat' is he referring to, the obvious equatorial water temperature anomaly associated with an El Nino? Because the temperatures over the past two years, if they have been as warm as is claimed, will result in the temperatures of lakes and even some ocean currents being above normal, possibly even record high. 

These temperatures will not return to normal just because El Nino stopped. Water temperatures take many months of above or below temperatures to respond significantly. Northern lakes will most likely remain warmer than normal at least until they freeze, which will probably occur a little later than normal this winter. That will affect land temperatures right into the early part of winter. Next year, however, will be very different indeed.

According to the WMO, preliminary information indicates that global temperatures were 1.2-degrees Celsius higher in 2016 than in pre-industrial levels. World temperatures between January and September have been about 0.88-degrees (C) above the average (14-degrees Celsius) from the 1961-1990 baseline reference period.

1.2 degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels. Pre-industrial times would be several hundred years ago. By the way, that's when all homes and offices would have been heated by wood or coal. So, that's not a terrifying rise in temperature. 

The hypothesis that greenhouse gasses would build-up over centuries to reach a possible critical breaking point is quite reasonable, though not proven. So, one would expect an acceleration in temperature rises as we appear to be experiencing. 

Conspiracy doubts?

However, the use of temperatures from the year of the strongest El Nino on record is flat-out fear-mongering and sensationalizing. If you ever doubted that there is an element of conspiracy in the global warming hysteria - this very article should dispel that doubt. No reasonable, responsible, and honest climatologist would ever make such a comparison.

"This would mean that 16 of the 17 hottest years on record have been this century," the WMO's statement said.

Meteorologists said El Nino weather patterns were responsible for some of the temperature spikes early this year, but noted that climate change indicators are also alarming.

"Concentrations of major greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to increase to new records. Arctic sea ice remained at very low levels, especially during early 2016 and the October re-freezing period, and there was significant and very early melting of the Greenland ice sheet," the organization said.

The WMO said the deadliest weather-related event so far in 2016 was Hurricane Matthew, a category 4 storm that pounded Haiti last month.

"Because of climate change, the occurrence and impact of extreme events has risen," Taalas said. "'Once in a generation' heatwaves and flooding are becoming more regular."

Taalas added that the WMO supports the Paris Agreement, reached this year to fight climate change, and said the pact "came into force in record time and with record global commitment."

2016 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years

This graphic compares the year-to-date temperature anomalies for 2016 (black line) to what were ultimately the seven warmest years on record: 2015, 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005, 2009, and 1998. Each month along each trace represents the year-to-date average temperature anomaly. In other words, the January value is the January average temperature anomaly, the February value is the average anomaly of both January and February, and so on. The average global land and ocean surface temperature for January–July 2016 was 1.03°C (1.85°F) above the 20th century average of 13.8°C (56.9°F)—the highest global land and ocean temperature for January–July in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.19°C (0.34°F).

The anomalies themselves represent departures from the 20th century average temperature. The graph zooms into the warmest part of the entire history.

Super El Nino has Passed its Peak, WMO Says

This year's El Nino is tied with 1997-98 for strongest on record, conditions could last into May

The Associated Press 

Calgarian Erik van Kuppeveld takes a break from reading and takes in the sunshine and 9C temperatures earlier February. Warm air from the Pacific as a result of El Nino has led to a warmer-than-average late fall and winter in much of Canada. (Larry MacDougal/Canadian Press)

Meteorologists see signs that the super El Nino is weakening ever so slightly, but they caution months will pass before people in Canada and the U.S. will feel it.

The World Meteorological Organization said late last week that El Nino has passed its peak based on specific temperature, wind, and atmospheric pressure conditions.

That's technically true, but Michelle L'Heureux, lead El Nino forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, said there's a few months lag time before the changes affect the Americas.

El Nino is the occasional but natural warming of the central tropical Pacific which, along with changes in the atmosphere, alters weather patterns worldwide. It often brings more rain to California and parts of the U.S. West and South, raises temperatures globally a bit, and causes droughts elsewhere in the world. In Canada, a balmy November and December in many parts of the country have been linked to this year's super El Nino bringing warm air from the Pacific.

In December and January, El Nino measurements showed it tied 1997-1998 for the strongest since records started being kept in 1950.


El Nino-like conditions into May

"It's still strong, but it has reached a peak value and it's starting its decline," said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Jason Furtado. "It's still there; it's not like we don't have El Nino anymore. We can still expect (El Nino) like conditions in March and April and even into May, as well."

Olivia Brown, left, and her friend Elizabeth Foster take the sun at Playa Del Rey beach in Los Angeles Friday, Feb. 12, 2016. A February of dry skies raises worries this El Nino may not be the drought-buster California needs.
(Nick Ut/Associated Press)

California Drought

Mike Halpert, deputy director of the climate prediction centre, said this El Nino hasn't brought drought-struck California as much moisture as previous strong El Ninos, but there are still two months to go to get significant rainfall.

With El Nino still kicking, NOAA forecast a spring that's wetter than normal throughout the U.S. South, much of the West and part of the East. Only the Great Lakes region and Pacific Northwest are forecast to be dry. It also predicts warmer than usual weather along the entire West Coast and most of the country north of Colorado, Missouri and Tennessee, with only Texas, parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico cooler than normal.


Look out for La Nina

The International Research Institute at Columbia University forecast that once this El Nino fades, there's a 50 per cent chance it will be followed directly by El Nino's flip side, a La Nina. La Nina often means droughts in parts of the U.S. Great Plains and Southwest with more rain in the Northwest. La Ninas often mean warmer winters in the U.S. Southeast and cooler winters in the Northwest.

A 50% chance? That's really helpful!

In the slide above are the changes in sea surface temperatures over the past 4 weeks. El Nino/La Nina reveals itself along the equator between South America and Indonesia. The blue in the eastern half of that zone indicates that the SSTs are cooling which means El Nino is in decline.