Russian-Led Organization Deploys Peacekeepers to Kazakhstan at Their Request

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Kazakhstan intervention sees Russia set a new precedent

Foreign actors may not have started the unrest, but they’ll play the deciding role in how it ends

By Fyodor Lukyanov,

the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.

Protesters take part in a rally over a hike in energy prices in Almaty on January 5, 2022.

© AFP / Abduaziz Madyarov

The sudden outbreak of violence in Kazakhstan has taken analysts and international observers by surprise. Now, the decision to deploy a regional peacekeeping force has become the latest major milestone for the post-Soviet space.

In the early hours of Thursday morning, the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which joins the armed forces of six former republics of the USSR, including Kazakhstan, announced that it would send a peacekeeping force to help maintain order as unrest spread across the vast Central Asian nation. 

This is the  first I have ever heard of this organization. But it changes the dynamics of NATO's efforts to recruit old Soviet countries. 

The move represents a blurring of the line between internal and external processes – the reasons that the Kazakh government is teetering on the brink of collapse are domestic in nature, and are related to the prolonged and increasingly weird transfer of power after the almost three-decades-long rule of veteran leader Nursultan Nazarbayev.

However, the street protests, which were sparked by fuel prices and have seen government buildings torched and troops surrender to demonstrators, have been immediately presented as an act of outside aggression on the part of foreign “terrorist groups.” From now on, it seems, the enemy always comes from the outside, even if it is actually inside. That claim gives formal grounds to declare the country is under attack and call in the CSTO.

This was not the case in the past, when similar recurring events were seen frequently in Kyrgyzstan, nor in Armenia three and a half years ago. Back then, the CSTO – Moscow mainly, but also the other members themselves – highlighted the internal nature of the unrest, saying there was no need for a foreign intervention.

However, this time it’s different, and the lines between foreign and domestic affairs are getting blurred across the globe. Several decades ago, liberals and human rights activists were the driving force behind the increasing confusion between home and abroad, advocating that national sovereignty could be set aside when human rights and freedoms were at stake. Today, the given justifications are about protection and preservation: a threat to the national security of the country in question and its neighbors justifies the intervention.

It is worth noting that, this time, the request for peacekeepers came from a government with undisputed legitimacy – even the protesters themselves have only publicly demanded the departure of Nazarbayev, who maintains a hold over domestic politics, and not the current president. This is what makes it different from the events of 2010 in Bishkek, when acting Kyrgyz president Roza Otunbayeva tried to call the CSTO in after his predecessor, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, was ousted by mass protests. 

Kyrgyzstan’s entire government system collapsed, which made any intervention highly questionable from a legal perspective. The legal grounds for the current decision are also stronger than those for the West’s so-called “humanitarian interventions” that resulted in toppling governments recognized at the international level, no matter how dubious their reputation.

In the future, we will probably learn more about how everything happened – the decision-making process in both Kazakhstan and Russia and who suggested involving the CSTO. For now, though, it’s clear that the Russian government chose to stay one step ahead instead of waiting for the kindling flame to turn into a blaze. This is the evolution of the approach used a year and a half ago in Belarus, when it was enough for President Vladimir Putin to warn that Russian forces were ready to intervene if the worsening domestic situation required it. This time, Moscow skipped the warnings and jumped straight into action, probably thinking that the Kazakh government might not hold out on its own.

But the lines must not fade away completely. The important question now is whether or not deploying the CSTO peacekeepers would spell the end of clan rivalry in Kazakhstan, as manifested by the “transition of power,” and instead lead to consolidation of power (and in whose hands?). Moscow has every chance to benefit from this, as it will now have a military presence in the state, central to its policy as a guarantor, whose actions might determine how the situation will unfold. This is similar to what happened in Armenia after the 2020 war. It’s only a temporary solution, but it provides an effective set of tools for the near future. 

Many analysts urge that Russia should follow the example of the US and the EU, approaching “all stakeholders,” placating the opposition and shaping the balance of power favorable to Moscow in key states, but they do not take into account the fact that each political culture has its own strengths and weaknesses. In reality, Moscow does not know how to do this – it never did – and when it tried, it always failed. The ideal scenario for Russia is to have a military safeguard there that could spare it the headache of having to deal with complex local political life. In other words, no matter who wins, they would have to act with Russian military presence in mind and not disregard the country’s long-standing partner altogether.

About four or five years ago, what we call the post-Soviet space entered a crucially important stage when these countries had to prove that they were fully functional sovereign states. Back in 1991, they were recognized as such simply because the USSR collapsed rather than for any other reason. While their respective comings of age took different forms, the wider context was the same, with significant interest both from Russia and the West, and some on the regional level, but to a lesser degree. External players fighting over the post-Soviet space became a destabilizing factor, but it lent a certain logic to the developments and made them part of larger international processes.

However, at a certain point, political heavyweights started losing interest in whatever was happening in the “new independent states,” as they were referred to in the 1990s. Amid global shifts, international powers became more and more focused on their own ever-growing list of problems. They didn’t exactly turn away from the former Soviet states, but they started spending much less of their time and resources on them. This goes for Russia too, even though it has a special status in this configuration, and it was looking for optimal forms of influence in the context of its shrinking sphere of interests.

So the political landscape in the former Soviet states has been shaped through internal processes that reflected the interactions between the various actors involved, the local political culture and social structure.

There is also the fact that a new political generation is entering politics across the post-Soviet space and in some cases challenging older leaders.

These changes are not brought about by external influence. Foreign players have to react to them, intervene or threaten to intervene, as they did in Belarus, adapt and try to make it all work in their favor, but the final result depends on how mature and efficient a country’s new social and political systems are rather than on any foreign patrons.

This is an acid test, and not all countries will pass it. Armenia’s case shows that the consequences for a nation can be dire (and it’s not quite over yet), even though the dominant idea there was that, some glaring problems aside, the country had a strong identity and could successfully mobilize its resources and survive when faced with an old adversary. Kazakhstan might also turn out to be an example of how a long-cultivated façade of success is actually hiding a deeply problematic and twisted core. And this case is definitely not going to be the last.

This is the first time Russia is using an institution it controls to pursue its own political goals. Until now, it seemed that such structures were purely ornamental. It’s clear that the CSTO peacekeepers deployed to Kazakhstan will be made up mainly of Russian troops. First of all, that guarantees an effective response. Secondly, while Kazakhstan can agree to have Russian troops on its soil, Armenian or, say, Kyrgyz forces are absolutely out of the question. Still, using the coalition brand gives Moscow more opportunities and additionally justifies the existence of this alliance. Time will tell whether any other CSTO member states will face a Kazakh scenario, but the precedent has been set. 

With Russia-US talks on security issues around the corner, this is a timely reminder that Moscow can make swift and unorthodox military and political decisions to influence the events in its sphere of interests. The larger this construct, the bigger the shouldered responsibility becomes, of course, including the responsibility for the developments in the countries where troubles are far from over. Of course, Moscow would have to deal with any fallout from these troubles anyway, and it’s easier to do so proactively and through a variety of tools at hand.

What is clear is that while branding the demonstrators foreign “terrorists” has allowed the Kazakh government to bring in heavyweight support from abroad, it has booted the conflict firmly into the international arena. It’s not yet clear what consequences this could have for the post-Soviet space, or for the world.

European Gas Crisis Spreads to Kazakhstan - Government Quits, State of Emergency, 8 Killed

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Kazakhstan declares state of emergency in several cities

as ongoing fuel price protests erupt

Fuel price increase that kicked in on Jan. 1 sparked tensions,

but autocracy has long stifled dissent

Thomson Reuters · 

Posted: Jan 05, 2022 9:27 AM ET

A view shows a burning police car during a protest following the Kazakh authorities' decision to lift price caps on liquefied petroleum gas in Almaty early Wednesday. (Pavel Mikheyev/Reuters)

Kazakhstan declared emergencies in the capital, main city and provinces on Wednesday after demonstrators stormed and torched public buildings, the worst unrest for more than a decade in a tightly controlled country that promotes an image of stability.

The cabinet resigned but that failed to quell the anger of the demonstrators, who have taken to the streets in response to a fuel price increase from the start of the new year.

An Instagram live stream by a Kazakh blogger showed a fire blazing in the office of the Almaty mayor, with apparent gunshots audible nearby. Videos posted online also showed the nearby prosecutor's office burning.

Earlier on Wednesday, Reuters journalists saw thousands of protesters pressing toward Almaty city centre, some of them on a large truck. Security forces, in helmets and riot shields, fired tear gas and flash-bang grenades.

The city's police chief said Almaty was under attack by "extremists and radicals," who had beaten up 500 civilians and ransacked hundreds of businesses.

This image grab from video shows protesters near an administrative building during a rally over a hike in energy prices in Almaty. Protesters stormed the mayor's office in Kazakhstan's largest city. (AFP/Getty Images)

A presidential decree announced a two-week state of emergency and nighttime curfew in the capital Nur-Sultan, citing "a serious and direct security threat to citizens." States of emergency were also declared in Almaty and in western Mangistau province, where the protests first emerged in recent days.

Authorities appeared to have shut the country off the internet as the unrest spread. Netblocks, a site that monitors global internet connectivity, said the country was "in the midst of a nation-scale internet blackout."

Government resigns

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev accepted the government's resignation on Wednesday following the protests, which have spread from the provinces to main cities since price caps on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) were lifted on New Year's Day.

Speaking to the acting cabinet, Tokayev ordered the price hikes reversed and new caps placed on the cost of other fuels.

The government said the regulated price was causing losses for producers and needed to be liberalized, but Tokayev acknowledged the move had been botched.

The unrest is the biggest test yet of Tokayev, 68, who took power in 2019 as hand-picked successor to Nursultan Nazarbayev, a former Communist Party boss who had become the longest-serving ruler in the former Soviet Union by the time he stepped down. Nazarbayev, 81, still retains substantial authority as head of the ruling party and chairman of the security council.

Kazakhstan's reputation for political stability under three decades of one-man rule by former leader Nazarbayev helped it attract hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment in its oil and metals industries, but the pandemic has led to economic pressures, as elsewhere.

Tokayev said on Wednesday he had taken over as head of the country's Security Council and promised to act with "maximum toughness."

Scores of injuries

Atameken, Kazakhstan's business lobby group, said its members were reporting attacks on banks, stores and restaurants.

The city health department said 190 people had sought medical help, including 137 police. City authorities urged residents to stay home.

The interior ministry said government buildings were also attacked in the southern cities of Shymkent and Taraz overnight, with 95 police wounded in clashes. Police have detained more than 200 people.

A video posted online showed police using a water cannon and stun grenades against protesters in front of the mayor's office in Aktobe, capital of another western province.

The size of the crowd in Almaty late Tuesday is shown. Police fired tear gas and stun grenades in a bid to break up an unprecedented thousands-strong march, with injuries to protesters and police reported. (Ruslan Pryanikov/AFP/Getty Images)

Kazakhstan has been grappling with rising price pressures. Inflation was closing in on nine per cent year-on-year late last year — its highest level in more than five years — forcing the central bank to raise interest rates to 9.75 per cent.

Some analysts said the protests pointed to more deep-rooted issues.

"I think there is an underlying undercurrent of frustrations in Kazakhstan over the lack of democracy," said Tim Ash, emerging market strategist at BlueBay Asset Management.

"Young, internet-savvy Kazakhs, especially in Almaty, likely want similar freedoms as Ukrainians, Georgians, Moldovans, Kyrgyz and Armenians, who have also vented their frustrations over the years with authoritarian regimes."

European and international election observers continually condemned the legitimacy of presidential elections in Kazakhstan under Nazarbayev, who regularly won with over 95 per cent of the vote. Voting irregularities and detentions of government opponents were also noted in the 2019 vote, which Tokayev won with a more modest 71 per cent total.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that Kazakhstan could solve its own problems and it was important that no one interfered from the outside, RIA news agency reported.

Russia's foreign ministry said it was closely monitoring the situation in its southern neighbour and counting on the "soonest possible normalization."

"We advocate the peaceful resolution of all problems within the constitutional and legal framework and dialogue, rather than through street riots and the violation of laws," it said.

The Latest > Eight police and military killed, over 300 injured in Wednesday’s violence so far, the Kazakh interior ministry says

Asian Geopolitics > Kazakhstan's Golden Man; Suu Kyi Charged With Election-Rigging; Armenia-Azerbaijan Fighting Resumes; Russia Called to Help

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Kazakhstan’s ‘golden man’ has a message for America

16 Nov, 2021 18:26

(L) Nursultan Nazarbayev © Kazakh Presidential Press Service / Handout via REUTERS;

(R) The Statue of Liberty in New York City, US, July 20, 2020. © REUTERS / Carlo Allegri

By Tara Reade, author, poet, actor and former Senate aide, author of Left Out: When the Truth Doesn't Fit In. Follow her on Twitter @readealexandra

For many Americans, the US will always be a place that others can only admire and envy. The harsh reality, though, is that not everyone is really hankering for the type of oligarchic democracy that has evolved in Washington.

The inability to judge others by anything but our own standards means we’ve often written off other countries and other ways of life. Worse still, our politicians have imagined a world in which ‘good’ must triumph over ‘evil’, and where those we disagree with are hell-bent on destroying our way of life. When the curtain is pulled back, however, it is easy to see how much bigotry is directed towards countries like Russia and others from the former Soviet Union, which don’t, in fact, want or seek a war with the West.

Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan

One filmmaker opening the door for people to look at things in a different light is Ukrainian-born Igor Lopatonok, now a US citizen living in California. Recently, I sat down with him on my podcast ‘The Politics of Survival’ to understand what drove him to produce movies like ‘Snowden’, about the eponymous whistleblower, ‘Ukraine on Fire’, and other productions along with Oscar-winning director Oliver Stone.

Their latest feature documentary, ‘Qazaq: History of the Golden Man’, was recently shown at the Asian World Film Festival in Los Angeles, detailing the life of Nursultan Nazarbayev, who governed Kazakhstan for nearly three decades after the fall of the Soviet Union.

According to Lopatonok, “we will destroy ourselves unless we have a balance of power.” The film, he argues, demonstrates how “emerging nations like Kazakhstan show the importance of Eurasian economic development to provide that balance.”

This is the kind of balance that his collaborator, Stone, gets endlessly panned for – approaching his interview subjects, who have included Russian President Vladimir Putin, with a neutral, non-typical Western lens. However, our discourse is so polarized that anything but outright hostility to leaders like Putin and Nazarbayev looks like sympathy.

‘Qazaq’ has been no different, with critics blasting it as fuel for Nazarbayev’s “cult of personality.” Stone hit back, telling the Guardian, “I’m not going to come over and lecture these people about how to run their country and how to run a democracy.” He added that he views Nazarbayev as something of a “tribal chief” managing a difficult country. “It doesn’t work [berating him]. Democracy barely works in the US.”

Lopatonok is also keen to rebut claims the pair are too soft on leaders who are decried as autocrats in the West, but went even further, arguing that “to call democracy the best way to govern is wrong historically and factually.” It is clear, he argues, that there are other ways “to resolve different views and conflicts peacefully, respect for human dignity, the freedom to act, speak and think freely, as long as it does not stop others doing the same, equality before the law, safe and secure community.”

“The US is failing on all five fronts,” he insists. “But I believe, and I got it from my interview with the first President of Kazakhstan, that people will be looking for a new way of governing now more than ever because of this failure,” Lopatonok said. “We can’t call the US’ form of governing a democracy.”

The 2020 US election campaign cost about $14 billion, becoming the most expensive election in American history. This money was spent, Lopatonok said, “to elect Joe Biden, who is unfit to be president of this country, this is a tremendous failure.”

So, while he denies his films are overtly sympathetic to one side of the argument, the Ukrainian-born director believes casting a light on how things are done elsewhere helps dispel the myths that prop up our own struggling systems. In his view, films like ‘Qazaq’ or ‘Snowden’ are important because “the reality we are given by the mainstream media is constructed by the media,” which is not, he claims, “reporting the news, but creating it. It has nothing to do with reality.”

That reality “is not black or white you; need the full picture. We want people to decide for themselves and develop their critical thinking.” Lopatonok said.

But as well as grappling with the legacy of Nazarbayev, who was one of the longest non-royal leaders of any country in the world, the film shows a fascination with Kazakhstan as a crossroads between East and West. The world’s largest landlocked country, it has become an increasing focus for investment and diplomacy, bordering both China and Russia.

In the opening shot, Stone and Lopatonok show the vast steppes from an eagle-eye view, before soaring over the futuristic capital of Nur-Sultan, itself named in honor of Nursultan Nazarbayev. Stone’s interview centers on the long-time former leader’s life, from childhood to his time in office, which saw him strike a careful balance between the great powers in the West and East. According to him, the country’s focus is on economic and social development, rather than playing geopolitical games.

In that, there’s something for us all to learn, and it’s hard not to hope that the American conversation moves away from and rejects the kind of neoliberal hysteria that has led to such hostility towards the eastern hemisphere. Suspicion can give way to a more objective view of other countries, if we want it to. And the US will only benefit from breaking free of its ingrained xenophobia.

Military junta charges ousted leader Suu Kyi with election-rigging

16 Nov, 2021 07:36

Aung San Suu Kyi in 2018. ©Franck Robichon / Pool via Reuters

Sixteen Myanmar ex-officials, including deposed State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, have been slapped with new charges related to the 2020 election by the Asian country’s military junta.

This week, 15 officials, including Suu Kyi, were charged with crimes related to the alleged rigging of the 2020 vote, , the national election body announced on Tuesday. Other targets of the accusations include ousted President Win Myint and the chairman of the election commission.

The November 2020 general election was won by Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). On February 1, the country’s powerful military, which ruled as a dictatorship before a shaky transition to a representative democracy a decade earlier, launched a coup, deposing the civilian government. The military claimed the election was rigged in favor of the NLD and against the party they supported. The NLD side denied the claims while international observers said the election was mostly free and fair.

Suu Kyi has been in custody since being overthrown. She is currently being tried for flouting Covid-19 restrictions during campaigning. She was also charged with a number of crimes, from illegal importing of radios to corruption and sedition. The 76-year-old, who spent years under house arrest, faces decades in prison, if convicted.

The military coup was met with resistance by NLD supporters, to which the junta responded with a crackdown. Observers who are critical of the military claim as many as 1,250 people have been killed and over 10,000 arrested over the months of confrontation.

Many lawmakers from the NLD formed a rival government, which in September declared a “people’s defensive war” against military rule. Suu Kyi refrained from commenting on the escalation.

Dozens of soldiers feared injured & killed in new

Armenia-Azerbaijan fighting

17 Nov, 2021 10:18

By Layla Guest

FILE PHOTO. © REUTERS/Aziz Karimov

Several Azerbaijani soldiers have been wounded or killed in the latest round of skirmishes on the country's border with Armenia, Baku's Ministry of Defense has claimed amid fears clashes will undermine a Moscow-brokered ceasefire.

In a press release issued on Wednesday, Azerbaijani military chiefs announced that seven of their troops had died during combat operations on the shared frontier as a result of what it has described as “Armenian provocations.” A further 10 servicemen were also reportedly injured in the fighting.

The Armenian side also announced it was dealing with an unknown number of casualties. The Ministry of Defense in Yerevan said on Wednesday that one of its servicemen had died, but revealed communication had been lost with a further two dozen, and that their fates are currently unknown.

According to the statement, Armenia has now lost a significant amount of its military equipment, including vehicles and armored carriers deployed to protect the border. Yerevan has also said two of its combat posts came under Azerbaijani control after a firefight.

Both nations have confirmed that the situation on the Azerbaijan-Armenian border has stabilized since reports of clashes on Tuesday. The defense ministers of both Yerevan and Baku held calls with their Russian counterpart, Sergey Shoigu, after fighting broke out in an effort to prevent tensions flaring further.

Shoigu called on the two former Soviet republics to put an end to any activities that risk exacerbating the situation. Moscow later announced that fighting had been paused.

Skirmishes broke out on Tuesday, with both sides accusing each other of the provocations. Yerevan alleged Baku’s troops had invaded its territory and captured several of its servicemen, as well as a handful of points across the frontier.

Azerbaijan, however, vows it was acting in self-defense, hunting for Armenian anti-tank weapons that purportedly shot at its posts over the weekend.

The incidents have created fears of a resumption in all-out conflict, which saw the two nations wage a short but bloody war last year over the disputed province of Nagorno-Karabakh, a de jure part of Azerbaijan historically controlled by the ethnic Armenian majority. Russia brokered a deal that saw an end to the fighting and deployed peacekeepers. The pact also forced Yerevan to sign over swathes of territory to Azerbaijan, including most of the lands held by Armenians since a bloody conflict in the early 1990s.

Russia obliged to defend Armenia in case of war with Azerbaijan – Yerevan

17 Nov, 2021 13:27

By Layla Guest

FILE PHOTO. Armenian soldiers take cover as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flies above the front line while troops hold positions on October 18, 2020, during the ongoing fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region.

© AFP / ARIS MESSINIS

After a series of firefights and fatalities reported on the country’s border with Azerbaijan, Armenia has said it expects Russia to step in and help prevent a return to all-out conflict that threatens the Moscow-backed ceasefire.

The secretary of the national security council, Armen Grigoryan, claimed that Azerbaijani forces had entered Armenian territory “as an act of aggression” on Wednesday. “In 1997, Armenia and Russia agreed to mutually help each other in such cases,” he said. “In this regard, we turned to Moscow.”

When asked to explain what kind of assistance Yerevan is requesting, the official said that it hopes to arrive at a resolution through diplomatic channels. If this is not possible, however, “then it is necessary to solve the problem by military means.”

Azerbaijan announced on Wednesday that seven of its servicemen died during combat operations and that 10 had been injured. Yerevan, meanwhile, has reported one fatality, but said that it had lost communication with 24 of its personnel, who are still unaccounted for.

The situation at the Azerbaijani-Armenian frontier has stabilized since reports of skirmishes on November 16, according to both sides. Russia’s Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu implored the two former Soviet republics to stop any actions which could worsen tensions. Moscow subsequently announced there had been a pause in fighting.

Both sides have both pointed fingers at one another for the latest clashes, with Armenia accusing Azerbaijan of invading its territory and taking numerous soldiers prisoner, as well as capturing installations on the border.

Azerbaijan has claimed that it was acting in self-defense, however, looking for Armenian anti-tank weapons that had allegedly shot at its positions across the frontier.

The clashes sparked concerns over a resumption of full-blown conflict, with both nations having fought a bloody war last year over the disputed province of Nagorno-Karabakh. The region is a de jure part of Azerbaijan, but has been run in recent years by the ethnic Armenian majority.

A Moscow-brokered deal ended conflict in the region and saw peacekeepers sent there. The agreement also required Yerevan to sign over a significant amount of territory to Baku, including most of the lands held by Armenians since a bloody conflict in the early 1990s.

Climate Change > China Reopens 53 Coal Mines; 80,000 Evacuated in China; Will Russia and Canada Benefit From Global Warming? Wildfires in Siberia; Drought Killing Kazakh Animals

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Chinese authorities restart 15 closed coal mines despite

president’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060

Last week they decided to open 38 more coal mines in Inner Mongolia

5 Aug, 2021 17:05

FILE PHOTO. A coal-burning power plant can be seen behind a factory in the city of Baotou, in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. © Reuters / David Gray

China’s National Development and Reform Commission has announced that 15 closed coal mines will restart production amid surging demand for power, despite President Xi Jinping’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.

The decision, announced in a statement on Wednesday, said 15 previously closed mines will be reopened, distributing more than 10 million tonnes of coal from its reserves to ensure the country can meet the power demand during the peak summer season.

Restarting production at the 15 mines in northern China follows a similar decision last week to reopen a further 38 mines in Inner Mongolia, with the total number of mines back in production having a combined annual production capacity of more than 110 million tonnes.

With China responsible for emitting a third of the world’s greenhouse gases, the decision to restart production at the coal plants comes despite a pledge by President Xi Jinping in September 2020 to make the country carbon neutral by 2060.

China is not the only country eyeing an increased reliance on coal; the Chinese mine reopenings come amid an ongoing discussion in Australia over the approval of an extension of the Vickery coal mine. The final sign-off on the expansion has been delayed pending a court challenge that claims the move would be in violation of Canberra’s pledge to tackle the harmful impact of climate change.

Australia is currently the world’s largest coal exporter and has, so far, refused to agree to meeting a zero emissions target by 2050. It currently ranks last out of 193 United Nations members for action taken to combat greenhouse gas emissions.

I can't help but think that if Canada reduced their carbon footprint to zero for the next 100 years, that it wouldn't make up for China's increase in next year alone. 

Environmentalists in Canada are very busy trying to prevent the country from producing and exporting natural gas which would be a great improvement over coal in China. This, along with a pending bankruptcy, is the consequence of spectacular stupidity.

More than 80,000 people evacuated from China’s Sichuan

 province as extreme rains trigger floods

9 Aug, 2021 08:54

More than 80,000 people evacuated from China’s Sichuan province as extreme rains trigger floods

The Fujiang River, Sichuan province, China (FILE PHOTO) © REUTERS/David Gray (CHINA)

More than 80,000 people have been evacuated from their homes by the authorities as Sichuan is hit by extreme rains, triggering floods, with nearly half a million people impacted across six cities.

On Monday, the authorities in Sichuan, China, told state-run news agency Xinhua that water levels across the province were dangerously high, prompting the evacuation of 80,794 people. 

The authorities said that more than 440,000 people had been impacted by the rains, with extreme rainfall being seen across the state. The highest recorded rainfall was in Qingshen in Quxian County, where 575mm (23in) of rainfall was recorded in just two days.

Alert warnings have been raised at 14 monitoring stations along the Fujiang, Jialing, and Qujiang rivers, officials told Xinhua. At one station, the water level exceeded the alert threshold by 1.47m (58in). 

On Saturday, state broadcaster CCTV said extreme weather in the southwestern province of Sichuan had already caused 250 million yuan ($38.57 million) in economic losses. It reported that 45 houses had been destroyed while 118 were severely damaged.

Photos and videos shared online show the extent of the damage, as floodwater ravaged towns and cities across the province. 

It's clear there will be winners & losers from global warming.

 Russia shouldn't be ashamed of standing to gain from a warmer world

Neither should Canada, but we are!

9 Aug, 2021 13:10

Broken ice on the Moscow River. © Sputnik / Konstantin Rodikov

By Artyom Lukin, an associate professor of international relations at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, Russia. Follow him on Twitter @ArtyomLukin

The West’s insistence that climate change will be terrible for everyone is just an ideology. In reality, as with all things, some people will gain and others will lose. Russia, it seems, could emerge in a far stronger position.

From mid-July to early August this year, my hometown of Vladivostok, in the country’s Far East, saw hot and rainless weather on a scale even the old-timers here had never seen before. In the day, temperatures hovered at just below 30C (86F), which, in combination with the humidity coming from the Pacific Ocean, made it an ordeal, especially for those who don’t have air-conditioning at home. The sea off Vladivostok warmed to 29С (84F), prompting warnings from scientists about the possibility of sharks swimming into the city’s bays.

Horror stories

The Far East is just one of the many Russian regions enduring abnormal temperatures this summer. In the Rostov region, in the south, a 41C (105F) heatwave led to power outages as residents turned on air-conditioners and fans. Yakutsk, the capital of the republic of Yakutia in Eastern Siberia, was blanketed by the smoke from huge wildfires, apparently induced by the unusually hot and dry weather in June and July.

Western media, led by its flagship newspaper the New York Times, predictably carried horror stories from Russia. According to those reports, the world’s largest nation faces the bleak prospect of being consumed by forest fires, while its housing and infrastructure will soon start to sink into the thawing permafrost. The not-so-subtle subtext of much of such reporting is that Russia probably deserves the climate-related calamities, as, “for years”, its leadership has rejected the fact that humans bear the responsibility for global warming.

It’s true that, until recently, the Kremlin, as well as the majority of Russian citizens, did not care about climate change, because they either didn’t believe in it or didn’t see it as something that could directly impact Russia. That has since changed. This year is shaping up to be the turning point. It has finally dawned on the country – both the political class and many ordinary citizens – that climate change is real, and we are already being affected.

There’s no doubt Vladimir Putin himself has begun to take climate change very seriously. In recent months, the president has repeatedly focused on the climate in his statements and public appearances. Meeting with the cabinet on August 5, he clearly stated that it was the cause of the recent wildfires and floods in the country. According to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, the pace of warming in Russia is 2.8 times that of the global average.

Silver linings?

Coming to terms with the reality of climate change and its enormous challenges doesn’t mean Russia should focus only on the threats, while ignoring the benefits it could bring, however. The climate-change narrative currently dominant in the West largely downplays these upsides, while emphasizing the potentially disastrous consequences of global warming. Ironically, just last December, the very same New York Times ran a long read on the potential benefits of global warming for Russia’s agriculture.

According to a study by the Institute of Geography at the Russian Academy of Sciences, in 1961, as much as 63% of Russia’s territory had climatic conditions deemed adverse for humans. By 2010, due to the rise in temperatures, the unfavorable zone had shrunk to 50% of Russia’s landmass.

More research, conducted by scientists at the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences and NASA’s Langley Research Center, concludes that global warming will make the climate of Siberia and the Far East more amenable to both life and agriculture. By the 2080s, scientists say, climates over Asian Russia, which makes up two-thirds of the country, are projected to get “much warmer and milder,” which could lead to a five- to seven-fold increase in the capacity of the territory to sustain a human population. This would result in a higher capacity for population density across the area, which is now sparsely inhabited, and make it more attractive for inbound migration.

A 2021 analysis by Princeton University economists predicts that, on average, world fundamental productivity will decline by 19% by 2200 due to rising temperatures. Brazil, Africa, India, Australia, and the Middle East will be the main losers, with declines in economic productivity of up to 60%. However, it will be a very different story in northern latitudes, including much of Russia. Parts of Alaska, northern Canada, Greenland, and northern Russia will see productivity double relative to what it would be without global warming.

Another recent study, authored by scientists from the United States, Canada, and Britain, looks at the areas that could become newly suitable for commercial farming as a result of climate change. They concluded that Russia and Canada had the greatest potential to become the globe’s new agricultural frontiers. Russia could add 4.3 million square kilometers (1.7 million square miles) of new farming land while Canada could add 4.2 million square kilometers (1.6 million square miles).

There is much more on this story on RT.

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Climate change frontline Yakutia: RT journalist joins firefighters

tackling months-long devastating Siberian wildfires

9 Aug, 2021 12:12

Russia is among the nations facing increasingly harsh natural disasters, such as the massive wildfires in the eastern Siberian region of Yakutia. An RT crew joined a group of firefighters doing their best to contain the blazes.

Yakutia is a sparsely populated part of Russia, prone to experiencing long periods of dry weather in summertime. This creates the conditions for massive and difficult-to-control wildfires. This year the threat emerged in mid-spring and, over the months, became quite devastating.

Despite all efforts to contain and douse the flames, some 37,000 square kilometers are affected at the moment. Several villages had to be evacuated before being obliterated. Many people living in parts of Yakutia and neighboring regions have also suffered from smoke inhalation and other hazards affecting their communities.

RT's Dmitry Pauk teamed up with a crew of firefighters in Yakutia, who said their resources have been stretched thin by the sheer size of the disaster. The larger fires, which pose a greater threat, get the priority allocations of manpower and equipment. Brigades dealing with smaller ones have to make the best of what they have.

The crew that welcomed the RT crew is really low-tech, walking on foot in search of smoke and using shovels and manual backpack pumps where necessary. This intensive effort is usually enough to tackle flames on the ground. But there is always the danger of fire spreading across treetops, where it is fanned by the wind, becoming a much bigger hazard.

The destruction from the wildfires can be felt far from Yakutia. This week officials in Yekaterinburg reported that smoke from the Eastern Siberian region had traveled all the way to the major city in the Urals, a 3,000-kilometer journey westward, with the winds.

The Russian emergencies ministry said on Monday it had sent more people and hardware to Yakutia. There are now 4,070 people and 585 pieces of heavy firefighting equipment deployed on the ground there. The military is lending a helping hand, too, sending trucks, military engineering vehicles and personnel to assist the civilian authorities.

Wildfires in Russia and other nations are becoming a bigger challenge, as climate change tends to make some natural disasters more serious with each passing year. California recorded the biggest single wildfire in the state's history last week. Greece and Turkey are each currently waging difficult battles against fires. 

Mass graves dug for horses in Kazakhstan as Central Asian steppe

hit by brutal heat wave, leaving wells and rivers running dry

9 Aug, 2021 11:33

Carcasses of animals lie on the ground outside the village of Tushchykudyk amid severe drought in Mangistau Region, Kazakhstan July 27, 2021. © REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev

International organizations are warning that months of severe drought in the former Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan are causing livestock to perish from hunger and thirst as supplies of food and water vanish in the sweltering heat.

A report by Reuters, published on Saturday, described how mass graves are being dug for hundreds of horses, farmed on the steppes for their meat and milk. One ranch owner, Gabidolla Kalynbayuly, told reporters that 20 of his steeds had already perished in the unseasonable heat this year, which has seen record-shattering temperatures in the Central Asian nation of up to 46.5 Celsius (115.7 Fahrenheit).

After months of sweltering weather, crops have failed and grass used to graze horses has virtually vanished. The drought has also left animals without food or water, while the price of hay and barley has shot up. At the end of July, the European Commission’s humanitarian aid watchdog agency warned that “minimum reserves of food and water are exhausted leading to the mass death of animals” in the west of Kazakhstan.

The government has imposed a six-month ban on the exports of both food and livestock, insisting that produce should stay at home while it struggles to meet demand and rescue the agriculture sector. In addition, the drought has sparked diplomatic tensions with neighboring Kyrgyzstan, which spans the mountains from which Kazakhstan's water sources flow. Kyrgyz officials have come under pressure to ban water exports in response to overall scarcity.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that his country is already seeing the effects of climate change, and being affected disproportionately by global warming. Putin explained that the average annual temperature for the past 44 years has been growing 2.8 times faster in Russia than the global average. “I have already spoken about this, and experts are well aware of this,” he said.

However, there are hopes that climate change could also bring positives to the world’s largest country, with vast regions currently too cold for agriculture thawing and opening up new opportunities for farmers to graze livestock. Analysts have repeatedly pointed to Russia as one potential winner from global climate change, against the backdrop of catastrophic predictions for the fate of much of the southern hemisphere.

Missing Flight MH370 - The Latest in Theories and Information

Below is a brief intro to an article by Jeff Wise, updating theories on the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. It's a fairly lengthy read but very interesting, entertaining and very well diagrammed. I highly recommend it.

In the year since the vanishing of MH370, I appeared on CNN more than 50 times, watched my spouse’s eyes glaze over at dinner, and fell in with a group of borderline-obsessive amateur aviation sleuths. A million theories bloomed, including my own.

The unsettling oddness was there from the first moment, on March 8, when Malaysia Airlines announced that a plane from Kuala Lumpur bound for Beijing, Flight 370, had disappeared over the South China Sea in the middle of the night. There had been no bad weather, no distress call, no wreckage, no eyewitness accounts of a fireball in the sky—just a plane that said good-bye to one air-traffic controller and, two minutes later, failed to say hello to the next. And the crash, if it was a crash, got stranger from there.

My yearlong detour to Planet MH370 began two days later, when I got an email from an editor at Slate asking if I’d write about the incident. I’m a private pilot and science writer, and I wrote about the last big mysterious crash, of Air France 447 in 2009. My story ran on the 12th. The following morning, I was invited to go on CNN. Soon, I was on-air up to six times a day as part of its nonstop MH370 coverage.

Find the rest of the article here.