Risk of 'extraordinary' coastal El Niño rises in Peru
A technical report issued Monday by the country's scientific commission known as ENFEN confirmed that the South American coast is facing abnormal ocean warming that could push temperatures to record levels.
The conditions significantly increase the threat of torrential rains, widespread flooding and severe damage to Peru's infrastructure.
According to ENFEN, the probability for September rose 10% from the 75% projected in late August. The probability of reaching extraordinary intensity falls to 82% in October, 78% in November, 70% in December and 59% in January. For February and March, the most likely scenario ranges between strong and extraordinary intensity.
ENFEN's scientific assessment, along with projections from consulting firms and economic groups under an extraordinary-intensity scenario, points to severe structural and biological consequences for Peru's fishing and agricultural sectors.
Economic projections estimate that Peru's extractive fishing sector could contract between 22% and 33.9%, putting tens of thousands of jobs at risk and disrupting normal fishing seasons, the newspaper El Comercio reported.
At the same time, warmer waters encourage the arrival of warm-water species, providing temporary relief for artisanal fishers but failing to offset losses in the industrial fishing sector.
Agricultural exports and regional food security could also suffer significant setbacks from the looming climate crisis.
Along Peru's northern and central coasts, air temperatures expected to remain well above normal during the Southern Hemisphere spring could affect flowering and yields of key crops including blueberries, mangoes, avocados and lemons. Agricultural output could fall by more than 6%, potentially pushing up prices for staple foods in 2027, according to reports by Infobae.
The situation is expected to worsen beginning in November with the arrival of torrential rains and flooding that could destroy irrigation infrastructure and transportation routes. In contrast, Peru's southern Andean highlands face a critical water deficit that threatens family farming and traditional livestock production.
U.S. shifts $52 million in military aid toward Latin America
This marks a shift in Washington's security priorities toward the Western Hemisphere.
The State Department notified Congress on Tuesday that it intends to transfer Foreign Military Financing funds from Slovakia, North Macedonia, Tunisia and Iraq to Panama, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, according to El País.
Foreign Military Financing provides U.S. funds that recipient governments can use to purchase American defense equipment, services and military training.
The State Department said the money would be used to combat "narco-terrorism," help secure the Panama Canal and reduce the recipient countries' dependence on military supplies from U.S. adversaries.
"These funds will prevent adversaries from establishing strategic footholds in our hemisphere," the department said, in an apparent reference to China's growing presence in Latin America.
The announcement followed Secretary of State Marco Rubio's trip last week to Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, where he promoted broader intelligence-sharing and coordinated security operations under the U.S.-led Shield of the Americas initiative.
Peru and Colombia joined the coalition during Rubio's regional tour, while Ecuador already was participating in its security framework. Panama also participates in the initiative.
During a joint appearance with Colombian President Abelardo De La Espriella, Rubio said the coalition was already becoming operational.
De La Espriella said Colombia would prioritize security cooperation, military modernization and the fight against transnational crime, according to the Colombian presidency.
Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori announced her country's entry into the coalition during Rubio's Sept. 10 visit to Lima, saying membership would allow Peru to receive intelligence more quickly and respond more forcefully to criminal organizations.
The reallocation comes as Washington is also intensifying pressure on Cuba. Although the State Department has not said the $52 million is directed against Havana, all four recipient countries participate in a regional security coalition that drew sharp criticism from Cuba when it was established.
President Donald Trump formally introduced Shield of the Americas at a March 7 summit in Florida. During the gathering, Trump said Cuba was in its "last moments" under its current political system and predicted that the island would have "a great new life," Diario de Cuba reported.
Trump also said he and Rubio were negotiating with Cuban authorities, although Havana disputed his characterization of the contacts. Trump has separately called Cuba "a failing nation" and described it as being on the precipice of collapse.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded by calling the coalition a "reactionary and neocolonial" initiative that threatened Latin American sovereignty.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez said it represented a "grave threat" to regional peace and accused participating governments of subordinating themselves to Washington, according to Diario de Cuba.
In a March analysis, the same Cuban outlet contended that the coalition reflected Cuba's increasing political isolation as more Latin American governments aligned themselves with Washington and distanced themselves from Havana.
The funding also could give Shield of the Americas greater operational capacity. Shortly after its launch, Chatham House noted that the initiative lacked dedicated resources for intelligence-sharing, joint exercises and the interception of illicit cross-border flows.
Because the four recipients participate in Shield of the Americas, the transfer could begin addressing that gap. However, Washington has not described the $52 million reallocation as an operation against Cuba or said the money will be used to intercept Cuban vessels, restrict Cuban intelligence activities or disrupt the island's overseas programs.
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