China's dwindling population

 

China’s marriages fell 7.5% in the first half of 2026. What does it spell for the economy?

Fewer weddings, rising divorces and plunging birth rates risk exacerbating the fallout from a rapidly ageing population

Sherry Wangin Beijing, South China Morning Post

Published: 3:00pm, 13 Aug 2026Updated: 6:46pm, 13 Aug 2026

China’s marriage registrations fell 7.5 per cent year on year in the first half of 2026, underscoring the demographic challenges authorities face as they step up efforts to encourage nuptials and childbearing.

Nearly 3.28 million couples in China tied the knot between January and June, down 264,000 from the same period last year, according to data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs on Wednesday.

Divorce registrations also rose 3.9 per cent to 1.38 million.

Marriage registrations are closely watched in China as they typically serve as a strong indicator of birth trends in the following year, with extramarital births still considered taboo in many parts of the country.

Last year, births fell to a record low of 7.92 million, down by about 10 million from the 2016 peak, as the country’s population declined for a fourth consecutive year.

In that time, India has taken over as the most populated country in the world. India is approaching 1.5 billion people while China's population is dropping toward 1.4 billion. The next most populated country is the USA with one quarter of China's population.

The nation’s shrinking and rapidly ageing population risks complicating Beijing’s efforts to sustain economic growth. Economists and demographers warn that a smaller workforce and fewer workers supporting retirees could weigh on productivity, raise pension and healthcare costs and prolong weakness in domestic demand.

Since last year, local governments have rolled out a range of policies to encourage marriage and reduce the financial burden of raising children, including extended marriage leave, cash rewards, consumption vouchers and fewer restrictions on where couples can tie the knot.

Those efforts helped drive an increase in marriage registrations to 6.76 million last year, but the latest decline suggests that rebound could be hard to sustain.

On Wednesday, demographer He Yafu wrote in an article published on social media that total marriage registrations in 2026 could fall to between 5.97 million and 6.37 million, and called for further policy support to curb demographic decline.

In an article published on Thursday, Chinese economist Ren Zeping attributed the persistent decline in marriages to high wedding and child-rearing costs, shifting mindsets among younger generations who view marriage as a constraint, improved pension and social security networks, and alternative emotional outlets like gaming and pets.

To counter the trend, Ren urged Beijing to lower housing, education and healthcare burdens, safeguard female employment rights and curb gaming addiction, describing children as “the new infrastructure” vital for China’s future.

Local authorities continue to provide financial incentives for childbirth and marriage. In July, a village in Foshan, South China’s Guangdong province, passed a measure offering newlyweds a 2,500 yuan (US$370) bonus, 3,000 yuan per newborn and preschool tuition subsidies, according to a village statement.

Similarly, Mingxi county in the eastern province of Fujian began offering a one-off 3,000 yuan cash reward to eligible newlyweds last month, along with birth subsidies ranging from 2,000 to 5,000 yuan per child, according to a local broadcaster.