"I am the Way, the Truth, and the Life"

Father God, thank you for the love of the truth you have given me. Please bless me with the wisdom, knowledge and discernment needed to always present the truth in an attitude of grace and love. Use this blog and Northwoods Ministries for your glory. Help us all to read and to study Your Word without preconceived notions, but rather, let scripture interpret scripture in the presence of the Holy Spirit. All praise to our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ.

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Showing posts with label succession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label succession. Show all posts

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Peaceful Transfer of Head-of-State in Autocratic Cuba

Raúl Castro's departure ends decades of
family rule in Cuba
By Daniel Uria 

Fidel Castro (L) and brother Raul, then the leader of the Cuban Armed Forces, are seen in Havana, Cuba, on December 21, 1988. Thursday, Raul Castro stepped down from the Cuban presidency -- marking the first time anyone but the two siblings have occupied the post since 1976. UPI File Photo | License Photo

UPI -- For the first time in decades, someone outside the Castro family has assumed the presidency of Cuba, as Raúl Castro stepped down Thursday.

Cuba's election commission on Wednesday nominated First Vice President Miguel Díaz-Canel as the only candidate to succeed the 86-year-old Castro as the island nation's next president.

Castro originally intended to step down from the presidency on Feb. 24, but Cuba's National Assembly voted in December to extend the legislative term to Thursday, saying damage from Hurricane Irma delayed the process.

Confirmed by the National Assembly's 605 deputies, Díaz-Canel became president Thursday morning. He has said he will stick close to the Communist Party ideals of his sibling predecessors.

"I believe in continuity," he said. "I think there always will be continuity."

New leadership

Díaz-Canel represents a new generation of Cuban leadership, which for decades has only known rule under Raúl Castro and his older brother Fidel Castro -- the latter overthrowing the prior government on New Year's Day 1959, after a six-year revolutionary insurgency.

"This will be the first time that you have in power as president someone who was born after 1959, after the Cuban revolution, somebody who was not part of the historic struggles of the 1950s to overthrow the [Fulgencio] Batista dictatorship," said Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.

While Díaz-Canel will take over the role occupied by the Castros for decades, Raúl Castro will maintain his role as the head of the country's Communist Party until 2021 and will remain in charge of the Cuban armed forces.

Fidel Castro died in 2016.

"Given the fact that the Constitution of Cuba states that the Communist Party is the leading sector of society and that there is no room for any other political party, Raúl Castro will still remain a very powerful figure," Duany said.

University of Miami political science professor Michael Touchton said the transfer of power is an attempt to renew the Cuban Revolution from an internal perspective, and allow the Castro brothers' children -- and a new generation of other leaders -- to move into positions that will allow them to one day continue the family dominance under the island's Communist party regime.

"By extending beyond the immediate Castro family, at least symbolically, it suggests that this is not a personalistic dictatorship," Touchton said. "Communist Party membership, ideology, loyalty and service are important and Diaz-Canel has all of those credentials."

Diaz-Canel was named first vice president of Cuba in 2013, an early signal that he might become the heir to the Castro presidency, following years of service in the Communist Party.

"This guy's been loyal, he's made a few calls for reform, but very few recently," Touchton said. "He was moderate, in no way fomented dissent from his position and he's been there for a long time."



Rocky U.S. relations

The transfer of power in Cuba is complicated by a simultaneous shift in the United States, as President Donald Trump has looked to roll back many of former President Barack Obama's efforts to normalize diplomacy with the Caribbean island nation.

"Since the Trump administration took office, there has been less warmth in the relationship and actually quite a lot of hostility," Duany said.

In November, a year after he was elected, Trump implemented more restrictive regulations on American travel to Cuba to forbid Americans from engaging in business with 180 entities identified by the State Department as having ties to Cuban military, security or intelligence agencies.

The Trump administration also permanently scaled down staff at the U.S. Embassy in Havana after officials divulged that 24 embassy employees were victims of "sonic" attacks, which left mysterious symptoms -- including mild traumatic brain injury, permanent hearing loss, loss of balance, headaches and brain swelling.

Authorities still aren't sure what happened, but the attack indicated that years of frosty relations between Havana and Washington could continue.

Trump's policies have led many observers in Cuba to believe the Obama-era efforts to thaw what had been substantially poor diplomatic relations, and the former president's moves to relax sanctions, are being pushed aside.

Additionally, since becoming first vice president, Diaz-Canel has adopted a hard-line stance on Cuba-U.S. relations, more in line with that of Fidel Castro, who ruled Cuba during the tumultuous 1960s and was a key figure in events like the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) and Cuban trade embargo (1961), which continues today.

"There's an argument internally for hard-liners to retain control and a hard-line approach to Cuban-American relations to be the dominant diplomatic strategy and policy choice on the island," Touchton said.

Touchton added Diaz-Canel isn't likely to fulfill the expectations of observers both inside and outside Cuba, who believe the change in leadership could result in reforms of civil liberties and political rights on the island.

"What happens in Cuban domestic policy colors Cuban relations with the United States because it offers hard-liners in the U.S. government ammunition for strengthening sanctions, undoing the Obama-era reforms and returning to the status quo, pre-Obama," he said.

The Castro legacy

While Castro will hand the reins of the presidency to someone beyond his family Thursday, experts say the Cuban landscape will continue to be shaped by the brothers' decades of dictatorial Communist rule.

Born in 1926 in Biran, Cuba, to a wealthy farmer, Fidel Castro grew up to study politics and at the age of 32 led a revolution to overthrow Batista's regime. He became Cuban prime minister in 1959 after the New Year's Day coup.

In 1961, the United States formally ended diplomatic relations with Cuba and backed a group of some 1,500 CIA-trained Cuban exiles to invade the Bay of Pigs -- with the intention of ending Castro's communist regime. The Cuban fighters were defeated by Castro's army, largely because U.S. President John F. Kennedy refused to provide air cover for the armed exiles.

In October 1962, the United States discovered the Soviet Union was building missile installations in Cuba -- which would open the island's capability to conduct a nuclear strike on the United States. Kennedy decided to blockade the island with Navy warships, which lasted for a month, until the Soviet nuclear stash in Cuba were dismantled.

During the crisis, some U.S. forces were set to defense condition, of DEFCON, 2 -- one of only two times in U.S. history that alert level was reached. Many scholars contend that the crisis marked the closest point the world has come to nuclear war.

Fidel Castro assumed the post of Cuban president in 1976, in addition to his role as Communist Party first secretary, and drove the island nation to become a one-party Communist state bent on ending years of government corruption he said operated under the Batista regime.

In 1980, Castro opened the Mariel Harbor in Cuba to 125,000 Cuban citizens who sought life in the United States. The Mariel Boat Lift, as it became known, landed a sizable Cuban population on the shores of Miami, including thousands of dangerous criminals who'd been released by Castro from Cuban prisons.

Cuba-U.S. relations were further strained in November 1999, following a lengthy custody battle between the Cuban father of 5-year-old Elian Gonzalez -- the lone survivor of a group who'd attempted to reach the United States by boat -- and the boy's relatives in Florida.

Fidel Castro served as Cuba's president until he abdicated power to his brother Raúl Castro in 2008, following years of declining health. Raúl Castro acted as president during the last two years of his brother's tenure and served two more five-year terms.

Fidel Castro lived for eight more years after leaving Havana's government and died on Nov. 26, 2016.

During their rule, the Castros placed tight restraints on Cuba's private sector and prohibited many citizens from owning computers, cellphones and other technology and running many types of private business.

While Raúl Castro helped modernize the nation during his decade as president, he also stymied Cuba's growing private sector by again limiting contracts for private businesses and continued to control information by making Internet access prohibitively expensive for the average citizen.



Thursday, November 16, 2017

Too Long in Coming, but What Now, After the Coup in Zimbabwe?

The coup that should have happened 15 years ago has finally ended the bloody reign of Robert Mugabe. The thought of his wife succeeding him was too much, even for the military. But is there a plan from here? Or was it just about getting rid of the Mugabes - because, I'm OK with that!

Zimbabwe: Key players as the country enters new chapter
CBC News 

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and his wife Grace wave to supporters in Harare on Feb. 23, 2014. Any plans for Grace Mugabe to one day succeed her husband as president have seemingly been dashed. (Philimon Bulawayo/Reuters)

Zimbabwe has been thrown into uncertainly after 37 years of rule by Robert Mugabe, who reportedly has been confined to his home compound in Harare since Tuesday in the wake of the military takeover.

Here's what you need to know about some of the key players as the situation unfolds in the country in southern Africa.

​Robert Mugabe

Mugabe is not the longest running of the several African leaders who have maintained an iron grip on power — that would be Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea. But Mugabe is the most prominent, having been a figure of international attention dating over a half-century as he helped lead a movement against oppressive colonial rule in southern Rhodesia.

​Mugabe on the surface and in the first half of life drew comparisons to Nelson Mandela. Both were educated at Fort Hare University in South Africa and jailed for years — 11 in Mugabe's case — while opposing white minority rule in their countries. 

They were also celebrated throughout Africa for empowering, black-led movements, but comparisons ended after Zimbabwe won independence from Britain in 1980 as power corrupted the former teacher Mugabe.

Mugabe took office as the country's first prime minister and preached the need for a "broadly based" coalition to Western media at the time after being democratically elected. But he oversaw the brutal crushing of would-be opponents and rival ethnic groups, predominantly in Matabeleland. Government forces were accused of killing thousands of civilians.

While the country's economy was stable enough through those years of political turmoil, it has swooned since the late 1990s.

Around 2000, violent seizures of thousands of farms owned by white people began, causing agricultural production to plunge. A land reform program was supposed to take much of the country's most fertile land and redistribute it to poor blacks, but Mugabe instead gave prime farms to ZANU-PF leaders and loyalists.

Food shortages have followed, along with a number of alarming economic indicators: hyperinflation, an abandoned currency and rampant unemployment.

On Thursday, Zimbabwe's state-run newspaper published photos of Mugabe, now 92, meeting with army Gen. Constantino Chiwenga and officials from southern neighbour South Africa, leading to speculation as to the way forward.

Grace Mugabe

Now 52, she has been a controversial figure in her own right for extravagant spending in a country with significant poverty and unemployment, and for assault allegations from incidents the past decade in Hong Kong and South Africa. She escaped charges both times due to diplomatic immunity.

Born in South Africa, she met her husband while working in the Zimbabwean government as a secretary. They have three children. She also has a son from a previous relationship.

President Robert Mugabe and wife Grace leave the Kutama Catholic Church on Aug. 17, 1996 after exchanging their wedding vows. The couple were traditionally married shortly after the death of Mugabe's first wife Sally.
(Howard Burditt/Reuters)

On the political front, she leads the so-called Generation-40 faction of the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front party.

Over the years, she has moved to amass allies and marginalize rivals for the eventuality of her elderly husband's death. It was expected she would be appointed to the vacant vice-president's post at a special congress meeting in the coming weeks after the recent sacking of Emmerson Mnangagwa as vice-president.

"So I have said to the president: 'You can also leave me in charge,"' she said at a rally just days before the military stepped in. "'Give me the job and I will do it very well because I am good. I can do a great job.'" 

And she's humble, too.

It's not an unfamiliar development. In the paranoid style that has reflected Zimbabwean politics — Mnangagwa earlier this year claimed he was poisoned at a Zanu-PF party gathering — Grace Mugabe in late 2014 accused then VP Joice Mujuru of plotting to kill her "Gaddafi-style," referring to the  public death of the longtime Libyan dictator.

One month later, Mujuru was tossed from the party and position for disloyalty.

Grace Mugabe's current whereabouts have been a subject of speculation, given the properties the Mugabes own outside the country. 

Emmerson Mnangagwa

​Mnangagwa, one of two vice-presidents, was dismissed on Nov. 6, leading to the chain of events that has seen the military take control. The longtime ally had "exhibited traits of disloyalty," Robert Mugabe said at the time.

In other words, he wouldn't agree to Mrs Mugabe taking over after Mr Mugabe's demise.

Mnangagwa fled the country, reportedly to South Africa, and vowed to fight "tooth and nail" to return. 

"This party is not personal property for you and your wife to do as you please," he said in a statement after his ouster.

Emmerson Mnangagwa is shown on Aug. 25, 2015 while serving as one of the country's two vice-presidents. Mnangagwa promised to fight 'tooth and nail' after his ouster and may be part of a coalition going forward with Morgan Tsvangirai. (Philimon Bulawayo/Reuters)

Known as the Crocodile, with his supporters called the Lacoste group, he has reportedly been welcomed into the fold of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.

Mnangagwa has long been tapped to be a potential successor as president and was reportedly the choice as leader of the plotters of an unsuccessful coup in 2007. He was selected as a vice-president in 2013, but the faction within the party led by Grace Mugabe pushed for months behind the scenes to oust him.

Were he to assume power as president, it would not represent a break from the past.

Like Mugabe, he was jailed for many years related to violent activities undertaken by the Zimbabwe African National Union during the 1960s fighting white rule in what was known as Rhodesia. A lawyer, he has held a number of positions within the government and ZANU-PF party since Mugabe seized power in 1980.

Thousands of citizens died in repressive violence and crackdowns under his watch as national security minister in the 1980s. But to many in the country, a role for a limited time for Mnangagwa — who is in his early 70s — would be more palatable than continued Mugabe rule, which has been characterized by economic woes that include massive unemployment and a worthless currency.

Gen. Constantino Chiwenga

​Chiwenga's news conference on Nov. 13 was a sign for astute watchers of the region that a change of some sort was potentially afoot in Zimbabwe.

A veteran of the struggle to free the country from British rule dating back to the early 1970s, the army commander publicly criticized what he saw as one-sided internal ZANU-PF

Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) Cmdr. Constantine Chiwenga said the military was prepared to 'step in,' a threat that was carried through in short order.
(Aaron Ufumeli/EPA-EFE)

"The current purging, which is clearly targeting members of the party with a liberation background, must stop forthwith," he said.

Chiwenga said the army was prepared to "step in," without being specific as to what that entailed.

That question was partially answered hours later when armoured personnel carriers were seen nearing the capital of Harare. Soon, military leaders appeared on the state television network and it was announced that Robert Mugabe was confined to his home.

Morgan Tsvangirai

Tsvangirai, 65, was prime minister of Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2013, and is now president of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). 

He has returned to Zimbabwe this week from South Africa, where had been receiving treatment for cancer.

He called on longtime foe Mugabe to resign in a news conference on Thursday.

Zimbabwe's Morgan Tsvangirai of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change is seen after receiving medical attention for being beaten in March 2007. (REUTERS)

Tsvangirai is a former trade unionist who formed the MDC in 1999, a party that quickly made gains in parliament.

Cancer has been just the latest of his trials. He has arrested several times over the years and suffered a beating from police in 2007 over what was deemed an illegal prayer meeting. Mugabe said he "deserved" the beating because he had violated laws.

He was charged with treason, and ultimately acquitted in 2004, after the notorious Montreal-based international lobbyist Dickens and Madson, working on behalf of Mugabe, passed along a videotape from a December 2001 meeting in which Tsvangirai takes part in a discussion of the "elimination" of Mugabe.

Tsvangirai led after the first round of presidential elections in 2008 over Mugabe, but then scores of his supporters were killed or injured, compelling him to bow out of the running before the next round.

A compromise was reached where he served as PM, but when the arrangement ended, Mugabe, not for the first time, blasted Tsvangirai as an "ignoramus."

Tsvangarai couched his comments on Thursday as being motivated by what's best for the future of the country.

"It was never a personal issue," he said. "I disagreed in the manner he [Mugabe] managed elections, I disagreed in the manner he conducted government business."

About the prospects of a transitional government Tsvangarai said "if we are approached to negotiate such a process, we will participate."