Middle East Madness > Turkey fighting to save democracy, Erdogan fighting for Caliphate dream - 3 stories, 4 videos

 

Erdogan appears to be fighting for his political life here, but more so, for his ambitious dream of rebuilding the Ottoman Empire. 

Riots break out at Ankara university campus after Erdogan rival detained

Riots broke out at the campus of Ankara's Middle East Technical University as students protested against the detention of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

Thousands have been protesting in major Turkish cities for a second night in a row as Imamoglu, President Erdogan's main political rival, called for judges to take a stand against the Turkish government's misuse of the courts. 

FRANCE 24's Jasper Mortimer reports from Ankara.

Thousands protest arrest of Istanbul mayor 

Ekrem Imamoglu had been detained on charges of corruption and alleged terror links

People wave flags and chant slogans during a protest against the arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. © Getty Images / Chris McGrath

Thousands of people took to the streets of Istanbul on Wednesday to decry the arrest of the city's mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, who is viewed as the main political rival to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in elections scheduled for 2028.

Imamoglu, one of the key figures in the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), was among a hundred people detained earlier in the day on charges of corruption and alleged links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is considered a terrorist organization by Ankara. The mayor was taken into custody just days before his official nomination as CHP’s presidential candidate.

Following Imamoglu’s arrest, the Turkish authorities imposed a four-day ban on demonstrations, closed down several roads in Istanbul and put restrictions on social media platforms.

However, it did not prevent protesters from taking to the streets, as huge crowds gathered outside Istanbul's police headquarters, City Hall, the main office of the Republican People's Party, and other locations.

The demonstrators carried Turkish national flags and portraits of Ekrem, chanting anti-government slogans and demanding the mayor’s release.

“We came here to support the mayor. They arrested him unjustly,” one of the people in the crowd told Reuters. Another demonstrator complained to AFP that “we are living in a dictatorship.”

There have been reports of minor clashes between the protesters and riot police, with Reuters publishing a video showing the officers using pepper spray to disperse a crowd outside Istanbul University.

Imamoglu wrote in a post on X before his arrest that “the will of the people cannot be silenced through intimidation or unlawful acts,” vowing to continue to “fight for fundamental rights and freedoms.”

During a press conference, CHP’s leader Ozgur Ozel called the mayor’s detention “a coup” and accused Erdogan of being afraid to lose to Imamoglu in the election.

Turkish Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc said later that Ozel’s comments were “extremely dangerous and incorrect.”

Erdogan rival arrested days before becoming presidential candidate

The country’s justice system is “impartial and independent” and because of this “linking investigations and cases initiated by the judiciary to our president is, at best, presumptuous and inappropriate,” the minister insisted.

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Turkey arrests 37 for 'provocative' social media posts over Istanbul mayor's arrest

By Doug Cunningham

Turkey arrested 37 people arrested for social media posts deemed "provocative" after the arrest of opposition leader Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival who was about to become a presidential candidate before his arrest. File Photo by Chris Kleponis/UPI | License Photo

March 20 (UPI) -- Turkey on Thursday arrested 37 people for social media posts deemed "provocative" following the Wednesday arrest of political opposition leader and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

Turkey's Interior Ministry said in a statement that the so-called "provocative posts" were allegedly made "within the scope of the crime of "Incitement to Commit a Crime."

"A total of 261 suspicious account managers, 62 of whom were abroad, were identified as having made these posts," the ministry said.

"Following the coordinated work of our Cyber Crime Presidency and Security Department, 37 suspects were caught and efforts to catch the other suspects are ongoing."

Related

• Erdogan's government arrests Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu in Turkish political crackdown
• Turkey's opposition party scores key local election wins
• Cease-fire halts decades-old conflict between Turkey, Kurds

The ministry said a total of 18,647,269 posts were made on X. Of those the government determined that 66% were from named accounts and 34% were bot accounts.

The ministry did not provide any examples of the allegedly criminal posts.

"We as a nation must stand against this evil. This is my call to my nation...The day has come to speak out," a post on Imamoglu's X account Thursday said.

The post called upon the Turkish judiciary to stand up against the use of the legal system to carry out a crackdown on political opposition.

"You must stand up and take precautions against this handful of colleagues who are ruining the Turkish judiciary, disgracing us to the whole world and destroying our reputation," the post said. "I trust the Great Turkish Judiciary. You cannot and must not remain silent."

People opposed to Mayor Imamoglu's Wednesday arrest as well as the arrests of 106 other people in the crackdown on political opposition say his arrest is a "coup."

Opposition demonstrations are planned even though the government has banned protests for four days as part of the political crackdown.

Imamoglu's opposition political party still controls Istanbul's government even though he is in custody.

In Istanbul, loudspeakers at metro stations played some of Imamoglu's speeches. One excerpt heard over the speakers said, "I promise you with my honor that I am going to win this fight."

University students have protested, but so far not in large numbers compared to Istanbul's 16 million population.

Among the student protesters' chants are a common one heard in Turkey, "We are not scared, we won't be silenced, we will not obey."

According to critics of Erdogan's government, the controversial arrests in this political crackdown are the most clear-cut democracy violations the government has ever carried out.

The controversy has also impacted Turkey's already-troubled economy with markets dropping Wednesday on news of Imamoglu's arrest.

Istanbul economist and consultant Arda Tunca told CNBC, "Turkey has already been in decline, but this is a political free fall. Today is history and a new dimension in Turkey's breakaway from democracy."

Turkish Magazine Calls for Revival of CALIPHATE Amid Hagia Sophia Conversion, Gets Slammed for Peddling 'Unhealthy Debate'

For several years now I have been accusing President Erdogan of having the ambition to rebuild the Ottoman Empire with himself as Caliph. Recommissioning the Hagia Sophia as a Muslim mosque seems to be part of that plan. This magazine article could also be a testing of the waters to see what kind of reaction there was. Don't be too confident in the immediate response, Erdogan will be watching the secondary responses to see where support for the Caliphate is coming from.

Islam - Current Day - Bible Prophecy Fulfilled Today? High Profile Muslim Fired

Could this very day be the fulfillment of the prophecy - "But when you see the ABOMINATION OF DESOLATION standing where it should not be..."?

The controversial Gerçek Hayat cover. Twitter/@aDilipak

A Turkish pro-Islam magazine is in hot water after bringing the cause of a caliphate back to life with the cover story of its latest issue. The Ankara bar association has accused it of calling for an insurrection.

The Turkish legal body filed a criminal complaint against Gercek Hayat magazine, asking prosecutors to investigate it. It alleged that the magazine's editor-in-chief, Kemal Ozer, and columnist Abdurrahman Dilipak, have instigated hatred and called for an armed rebellion against the Turkish state. 

At the center of the accusation is the latest issue of the magazine, published on Monday, which features a cover stating: "Get together for caliphate. If not now, when? If not you, who?" An interview with Dilipak, a veteran Turkish conservative journalist, is one of the lead stories in the edition.

"Get together for caliphate. If not now, when? If not you, who?"

A caliphate is a state dedicated to the cause of Islam, seeking to be a unifying and defending force for all Muslims. The word had received plenty of negative attention in recent times since the terrorist group Islamic State claimed the title for itself.

Historically, four major caliphates existed, the latest being the Ottoman Empire. Modern Turkey was founded by Kemal Ataturk on the ruins of this fourth caliphate as a modern secular republic that had cast away the outdated institutions of its predecessor.

Arguing for revival of a caliphate is a political hot-button topic in Turkey, so the Gercek Hayat publication was met with skepticism even from the conservative side. Spokesman for the ruling AK Party, Omer Celik, said the magazine was seeking "unhealthy polarization" by questioning Turkey's founding principles.

Some outrage came even before the issue was published, and was based on a preview of the magazine's cover tweeted by Dilipak. Prominent Turkish journalist Ismail Saymaz said on Sunday that Turkey was not a country "to be ruled by a handful of radicals," and that the people behind the Gercek Hayat issue "are not even aware of what kind of fire they were playing with."

Ozer, the magazine's editor-in-chief, said critics of the story were misinterpreting it. "Our journal demands that the countries of Islam come together, just as Europe has come together and established a union, just as others have made similar ones. Our call has nothing to do with any country," he said. The release of the issue didn't seem to appease critics, however.

The Caliphate cover story and the furor that followed comes on the back of Turkey's decision to convert the Hagia Sophia, one of its national treasures, back into a functioning mosque. Originally constructed as a Christian church, it was converted into an Islam house of worship after Constantinople fell to the Ottomans. Ataturk transformed the building into a museum in 1935.

Erdogan's Ottoman Empire Ambitions Suffering from His Own Eroding Base

Ajit Sahi

It is easy to understand Erdogan's desperate attempt to stoke religious sentiments by converting the Hagia Sophia museum into a mosque. With this decision, he is merely trying to deflect attention from Turkey's worsening economic situation over the last several years which is now bringing him electoral defeat after electoral defeat.

In fact, Erdogan is today politically at his weakest since first winning power in 2003. His party, the AKP, has been steadily losing support among the voters. Last year, his party was twice defeated in the mayoral election in Istanbul, Turkey's biggest and most populous city. When the first election saw the AKP candidate lose by a slim margin, Erdogan simply refused to accept that decision and forced his hand-picked election authorities to call a second election. The reelection, held three months after the first, saw the AKP lose by a decisive and massive margin. Erdogan's party also lost elections in many other cities.

There is no doubt that Erdogan has more support in Muslims outside of Turkey, who likely see in him the closest figure who can return a pan-Muslim (and pan-Islamic) rule like the Ottoman Caliphate once used to be, than in his own country. Like Narendra Modi, Erdogan, too, has tried to control independent pillars of democracy, from the judiciary to the central bank. Erdogan made his son-in-law the country's finance minister in 2018, and the economy has gone worse since then.

Last month, Turkey had an inflation rate of 12%, which is most certainly an under-assessment. Turkey's currency, the Lira, has fallen 13% against the US dollar this year. Last year, the Lira had fallen by 20% against the USD, and 20% the year before, in 2018. Whereas Erdogan led a massive economic expansion program from 2003, the picture is now far less rosy. In 2008, Turkey's share of the world's economy was 1.2%. Today, it is 0.89%.

Unemployment has been persistently high in Turkey. The government claimed this week that unemployment rate has fallen to 12.8% in May, which, though in itself high, is still underreporting. Unnerved by the coronavirus, Erdogan forbid businesses from sacking employees while allowing unpaid leave. So millions sitting at home without any income are counted as "employed".

In fact, the number of employed persons dropped by about 2.6 million people during March-May this year compared with the same period last year. The overall employment rate declined by nearly 5% to 41%. Worryingly, the youth unemployment rate, including people ages 15 to 24, rose 1.2% hitting 24.4% in April, the Turkish Statistical Institute said yesterday.

At the macroeconomic level, Turkey is steeped deep in debt. The government and the private corporations together owe nearly half a trillion dollars in debt. Turkey's overall GDP is only slightly higher at USD770 billion. With a falling economy, it is becoming harder for both the government and the private sector to service debt.

Across industry, margins of profit have sharply dropped. Investment has been continuously drying up. Businesspeople are postponing expansions. Even farming has hugely suffered under Erdogan.

That is why, like Modi, Erdogan has been muzzling free press, putting journalists and activists in prison, purging universities of independent-minded academicians, accusing every opponent of being a "Western plant".

Many non-Turkish Muslims think Erdogan is the chosen global leader for all Muslims. For now, however, Erdogan is just trying to save himself in Turkey, and all he can think of is turning a church-turned-mosque-turned-museum into a mosque in order to revive his support.

Russian Communists Prepared to Abandon Atheism - Delicious Irony

Lenin would be rolling in his grave, if he had one: Russian Communists back plan to put 'God' in constitution

Gennady Zyuganov © Sputnik / Vitaly Belousov

By Jonny Tickle

It's not so long ago that they were known as the "Godless Communists." Which means it still comes as a surprise that the party has no objection to the idea of including a reference to the man upstairs in Russia's constitution.

A century on from the Bolshevik revolution, things have come a long way. Russian and other Soviet Communist officials once reveled in their promotion of state atheism, so present leader Gennady Zyuganov's reasoning has also raised a few eyebrows.

Far from being the ‘Opium of the People,’ Zyuganov said that Communism is actually derived from Christianity. Leaving no doubt that party founder Vladimir Lenin would be to rolling in his grave – if he had one.

“When I studied the Bible, in the gospel of the Apostle Paul ... there was the main slogan of Communism. He who does not work does not eat.” he explained. “Actually, in many ways, the moral code of a builder of Communism is built on the Bible.”

While Orthodox Patriarch Kirill and the rest of his church surely welcome the sentiment, they may also dwell on the fact that the Soviet-era Communist party brutally suppressed Christians and murdered thousands of clergy.

Although Zyuganov’s beliefs are very far from Marxism and traditional communist doctrine, his colleagues in the State Duma weren't hugely surprised by his views. This isn’t the party leader’s first flirtation with religion – he once called Jesus Christ the first communist on earth.

Before the establishment of the Soviet Union, Russia was a profoundly religious country. The integration of the Orthodox Church into the government meant that Lenin considered them an organ of the bourgeoisie. Thus, the revolutionary leaders adopted an official atheist policy and, after decades of propaganda, religion in the Soviet Union was absent from mainstream thought.

The break-up of the USSR led to faith being thrust back into the limelight within Russia, and many former staunchly Communist Russians began to turn to Christianity. With over 80 percent of the modern Russian population believing in a God, it's not a shock to see products of the Soviet system simultaneously promoting God and Communism.

There is no confirmation yet if God will be included in the new Constitution. A working group is currently designing all the proposals, and a confirmatory national vote is due to be held on April 22, 2020 – Lenin’s 150th birthday.

U.S. Recalls Ambassador to Zambia After Dispute Over Gay Rights

By Don Jacobson

Zambian President Edgar Lungu told U.S. officials he would no longer work with the American diplomat.

File Photo bu Harish Tyagi/EPA-EFE

(UPI) -- The United States has recalled its ambassador to Zambia after he waded into a dispute over gay and lesbian rights with the president of the southern African nation.

The U.S. State Department confirmed Monday it has recalled diplomat Daniel Foote after it was told Zambian President Edgar Lungu would no longer work with him.

Saying they were "dismayed" by Lungu's stance, U.S. officials conceded Foote's position in Zambia was "no longer tenable" after the American envoy last month criticized 15-year prison sentences handed down to two gay men convicted of having sex. Sexual relations among gay Zambians, even consensual, is outlawed.

The department said there are no immediate plans to send another diplomat to Zambia, Bloomberg reported.

"Despite this action, the United States remains committed to our partnership with the Zambian people," a State Department spokesperson said, emphasizing that the United States "firmly opposes abuses against" lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex persons.

Zambian Foreign Minister Joseph Malanji first registered displeasure with Foote last month after the U.S. ambassador said he was "horrified" at the long prison terms imposed on the gay men.

Malanji said the government strongly disagreed with Foote's view, and concluded that his questioning Zambian courts "is tantamount to questioning the Zambian Constitution."

Historian Unearths Evidence that Istanbul Directed Armenian Genocide

New documents suggest the Armenian genocide was both sanctioned and assisted by leaders of the Ottoman Empire in Istanbul

By Brooks Hays

Armenian civilians, escorted by armed Ottoman soldiers, are marched to a nearby prison.

Photo by Wikimedia Commons

(UPI) -- Between 1914 and 1923, during and after World War I, hundreds of thousands of Armenians living in Turkey were systematically rounded up and murdered. Thousands more were forced to flee their homes. Some estimates put the death toll at more than 1.5 million.

Now, researchers say newly discovered documents suggest the Armenian genocide was both sanctioned and assisted by leaders of the Ottoman Empire in Istanbul.

The fact that the Armenian genocide happened is well-accepted within academic circles. However, the Turkish government has continued to deny the culpability of their predecessors.

"The Armenian diaspora is trying to instill hatred against Turkey through a worldwide campaign on genocide claims ahead of the centennial anniversary of 1915," Turkey's president, Recep Erdogan, said in 2015. "If we examine what our nation had to go through over the past 100 to 150 years, we would find far more suffering than what the Armenians went through."

Erdogan's sentiments aren't without the support of the vast majority of the Turkish population. As the New York Times reported in 2015, a poll conducted by the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an Istanbul research organization, fewer than one in ten Turks believe the government should label the atrocities genocide and apologize.

"Turkish government officials continue to use the same argument, the argument that the Ottoman government never had the intent," Taner Akçam, an Armenian genocide expert and history professor at Clark University in Massachusetts, told UPI. "They accept that there were casualties and some massacres, but they claim the Ottoman government was not able to control the remote areas and that some Kurdish tribes or bandits or some other group, they committed these kinds of crimes."

What was missing, Akçam said, was a "smoking gun" linking the atrocities to the Ottoman government. That's exactly what Akçam found.

"This new evidence is a major blow against Turkish denialist arguments," Akçam said.

His discovery suggests the genocide was indeed carried out on periphery, not by rogue agents and bandits, but by provincial governors. These governors were in communication with and assisted by leaders in Istanbul.

"This shows the radicalization process started in the provinces," Akçam told UPI.

The evidence, a series of telegrams transcribed, decoded and signed by Turkish officials, was discovered among a slate of new documents released into the Ottoman archive, a collection of historical documents in Istanbul, organized by the government and made available to researchers.

The newly discovered letters feature the first unambiguous use of the terms "extermination" and "annihilation" by Ottoman officials, both among the provinces and in Istanbul. Analysis of the signatures confirmed several of the transcribed telegrams were authored by Bahaettin Şakir, head of the para-military Special Organization and one of the architects of the Armenian Genocide.

Though the plan to exterminate all of the Armenians living in Turkey began as a provincial idea, the new evidence suggests Istanbul was eventually convinced to back the genocidal approach.

In addition to the documents retrieved from the Ottoman archive in Istanbul, Akçam also discovered similar letters -- transcribed telegrams -- that were used as evidence in tribunals organized by the postwar Ottoman government.

"There were 63 different trials and more than 200 defendants," Akçam said. "The materials from these court procedures went missing. Government officials never made these court proceedings available to researchers."

Researchers only knew about these tribunals from reports written by daily newspapers in Istanbul. A few of the verdicts were also published by the Ottoman government. But some of the documents from these tribunals ended up in the private archive of a Catholic priest in Armenia.

Among the tribunal documents, Akçam found transcribed telegrams using the same coding system -- a series of Arabic letters and numerals to represent words and suffixes -- found among the letters unearthed from the Ottoman archive.

"I went to the Ottoman archive, I discovered that this four digit coding system was the same for both sets of telegrams," he said. "The authenticity cannot be disputed, this was the major discovery."

The transcribed telegrams provided further evidence of communication between those carrying out the genocide in the provinces and military and political officials in Istanbul, including messages that Akçam characterized as "killing orders."

As to why these revealing documents were publicly released by a government intent on denying its predecessors culpability, Akçam guesses officials simply didn't read them thoroughly. The documents in the archives were summarized by officials before being released, and the summaries of the newly discovered telegraphs mention nothing of the details relating the Armenian genocide.

Akçam said his discoveries, summarized in the Journal of Genocide Research, will further solidify the truth of the Armenian genocide. It's a truth he hopes will soon be accepted by the Turkish government.

According to Akçam, the genocide has implications for the political situation in modern Turkey.

"Turks and the Turkish government has the same problems today with Kurds as the Ottomans had with Armenians in the past," he said. "Armenians were making demands for legal and social equality. The Kurds are making similar demands today."

As a result, Akçam said, the Kurds have been labeled as a security threat and the Turkish government has attempted to suppress these democratic demands.

"Without acknowledging historical wrongdoings, Turkey cannot establish a democratic future," Akçam said.

According to the historian, reconciling with the record of the Armenian genocide is essential for improved relations between Turkey and its neighbors.

"Speaking regionally, if you continue this policy of denialism, this means you have the potential to repeat the same policy against your neighbors," Akçam said. "This is why many of Turkey's neighbors consider the Turkish government a security threat. Without reconciling history, peace will not be achievable in the region."

Sultan Erdogan One Step Closer to Becoming Caliph of Turkey

Erdogan wins 1st term as president ‘under new system’

As I mentioned yesterday in Nil Köksal's piece, I don't believe Erdogan would leave anything to chance, so this win was to be expected. We can also expect him to use his executive authority to eliminate any meaningful opposition, that would mostly mean non-Muslim hardliners, that might remain after having incarcerated most of them. 

Once he's consolidated himself as de facto Caliph of Turkey, will he turn his attention to reviving the Ottoman Empire?

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan leaves the voting booth at a polling station in Istanbul, Turkey on June 24, 2018.

© Umit Bektas / Reuters

Incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won the majority of votes, the head of the electoral board said. This would mark the second consecutive term for Erdogan, but the first one under “a new system.”

With over 97.2 percent of votes counted, the head of Turkey's High Electoral Board (YSK) says Erdogan has secured more than 50 percent of the votes needed for the victory.

In the parliamentary election, his AK Party is also in first place with over 45 percent. The pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) will also enter the parliament after passing the 10 percent threshold, according the board's head, Sadi Guven. Turnout was at 87 percent for both polls, preliminary data shows.

Erdogan’s closest competitor, Muharrem Ince, has secured over 29 percent of the vote. His Republican People’s Party (CHP) placed second with nearly 21 percent.

"The Turkish people have elected Erdogan as Turkey's first president/executive president under the new system,” Turkish government spokesman Bekir Bozdag said.

While delivering a statement on his own, Erdogan also said that the preliminary results clearly indicated his victory, as over 95 percent of votes were counted. He called for leaving aside the “tensions" of the election period and promised there will be no back paddling on the “success” he achieved. The Turkish opposition, meanwhile, claimed that there will likely be a second round of elections.

Today’s polls are the first since Turkey switched to a presidential system of governance after the April 2017 constitutional referendum. The plebiscite effectively split Turkish society in half, as the amendment package passed by a close margin, securing 52 percent of the vote.

The victory allows Erdogan to further consolidate political power and implement the constitutional reforms. The powers in question include the abilities to pick cabinet ministers from outside of the legislature, pass laws by decree, single-handedly declare a state of emergency and launch extraordinary elections. The post of the prime minister is also set to be abolished.

The Turkish opposition, however, sees such changes as a power grab, which effectively destroys the country’s century-old parliamentary democracy. Erdogan’s closest competitor, Ince, vowed that he would lift the state of emergency within 48 hours if elected president and reverse all the constitutional reforms afterward.

Erdogan counters that view, saying “Turkey is staging a democratic revolution.” 

“With the presidential system, Turkey is seriously raising the bar, rising above the level of contemporary civilizations.”

Drastic changes in Turkey’s political system followed a botched coup attempt in July 2016. Erdogan accused his late ally and now nemesis, US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, of masterminding the coup. The cleric has firmly rejected the accusations.

Following the failed coup, Turkey has been under a state of emergency for nearly two years and has seen a widespread crackdown on alleged supporters of Gulen. Around 160,000 people have been detained, and thousands of public servants and soldiers have been fired.

Could Turkey's Erdogan Era be Ending?

I seriously doubt that Sultan Erdogan has left any possibility to chance.

But I defer to Nil who is very knowledgeable when it comes to Turkey.

Snap election gamble could cost Erdogan, 

as weekend vote expected to be close

Nil Köksal · CBC News 

This weekend's election could lock in a new presidential system for Turkey 

One that President Tayyip Erdogan has pushed for. 

It is a fight for Turkey's future.

So much is at stake in Sunday's presidential election that the country's electoral board reports nearly half of the three million Turks living outside the country have already marked their ballots. It is a record turnout.

In Toronto, lineups snaked around the Turkish consulate for three days of advanced voting. Ekrem Alpaydin had the Turkish flag wrapped around his shoulders. He sees only Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the current president, in Turkey's future.

"He's the best leader in the world — seriously, honestly," Alpaydin said. "My leader is strong."

Others in the voting line rolled their eyes, with one shouting, "He's a f---ing dictator!"

Ezgi Ulkuseven wouldn't reveal who she was choosing, but said, "I'm not supporting Erdogan, I can tell you that."

"I think a lot of people are angry about the way things are in Turkey right now, so [this vote] could change a lot of things."

Much of the anger is tied to Turkey's troubled economy, the country's involvement in the Syrian war and the reality of housing millions of refugees.

The country is also still under a state of emergency nearly two years after the deadly attempt to topple Erdogan's government. In the ensuing crackdown, more than 150,000 people have either lost their jobs or are in prison awaiting trial.

There are still questions about whether the coup was a real attempt to topple Erdogan, or whether it was staged and used as pretext to arrest thousands of his political opponents. 

Whatever the election result, it will be life-altering for the country's nearly 80 million people and have lasting ramifications for Turkey's neighbours and allies.

Canada is already a popular safe harbour for Turks from the recent tumult. The number of Turkish asylum seekers in Canada quintupled in 2017. Thousands of others are coming as students, permanent residents or investors.

What's at stake?

This weekend's vote could lock in a new presidential system for Turkey — one that Erdogan has pushed for.

It has been billed as similar to the U.S. presidency, but critics worry it will have fewer checks and balances than Turkey's parliamentary system, and will write a blank cheque for an already powerful leader. After 15 years leading the country, Erdogan could win at least another decade in power.

But this time, Erdogan is up against some of the strongest opponents he has ever faced.

Meral Aksener, in red, is one of the founding members of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party,

and now leads Turkey's Iyi (Good) Party. (Jeff Mitchell/Getty Images)

Some are emulating his cadence, his shout and populist touch while promising significant change — and at the top of the list is relaxing the grip he's held on freedom of expression.

Erdogan's recent anti-West, anti-EU rhetoric has rattled relationships with the U.S. and Europe, fueling fear that the West could lose a key, calm friend in the region.

Four of the Turkish parties running in the election are willing to cobble together a coalition — despite the political and ideological chasms between them — because they share the singular goal of ending the Erdogan era.

Erdogan's opponents

Muharrem Ince is seeing a remarkable swell of support as head of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Ince's popularity has clearly swayed Turkish media.

Out of fear of or outright support for Erdogan, opposition voices usually get minimal play. Now, media outlets are carrying Ince's events and inviting him into their studios for live interviews — although Erdogan is still getting the bulk of airtime.

Ince is a former teacher, and one of his most colourful proposals is to turn Erdogan's extravagant 1,150-room presidential palace into an education centre.

Muharrem Ince, the leader and presidential candidate of Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party,

has garnered large crowds for his campaign rallies. (Ali Ege/AFP/Getty Images)

Selahattin Demirtas, the leader of the People's Democratic Party (HDP), is campaigning from his prison cell. He's been there since 2016, accused of supporting terrorism.

Charismatic and, at 44, the youngest of the candidates, Demirtas made big gains in the 2015 election, passing the threshold to enter parliament. Soon after, Erdogan began alleging Demirtas was a supporter of the PKK, the Kurdish militant group behind a deadly insurgency in Turkey since the 1980s. It is an allegation Demirtas and the HDP have always denied, insisting it is politically motivated.

Meral Aksener, a sharp-tongued nationalist and one of the founding members of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), is leading a new party, IYI, which promises a new future for Turkey. Savvy social media targeting of young Turks has been a key part of her campaign.

Temel Karamollaoglu is a UK-educated former engineer leading the small Saadet (Felicity) Party, which is attracting more religious voters disillusioned with Erdogan's leadership.

The issues

The economy is one of the issues that initially helped propel Erdogan to power, and now it is what could hurt him most.

After years of economic growth and success under Erdogan, the reality now is a critically low lira, rising inflation and unemployment, particularly among young people. Nearly 11 per cent of people in the country are out of work, and recent numbers show nearly 20 per cent unemployment among people aged 15-24.

Supporters of Selahattin Demirtas watch the presidential candidate of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party speak via video from a prison cell. (Yasin Akgul/AFP/Getty Images)

At a recent election rally, Erdogan said rising refrigerator sales in Turkey were a sign of how well the economy was doing. Opponents seized on the moment — it was clear proof, they shouted, that Erdogan is out of touch.

Turkey's complicated relationship with its Kurdish population is also a defining factor in this vote. While Turkey is still locked in conflict with the PKK — a group internationally recognized as a terror organization — Erdogan enjoys high support among conservative Kurds.

Turkey's role in Syria and the three and a half million Syrian refugees now in Turkey are factors swaying voters, too.

In Toronto, student Yagmur Teze bristled at those issues, even as she talked about freedom for Turkish dissidents and minorities.

"Scholars, doctors, political leaders — everyone who is against [Erdogan] is now in jail," she says. "Those people are now guaranteed rights to vote."

Turkish officials said this week that 30,000 Syrian refugees are eligible to vote.

Pollsters are warning the final tally will likely be close. There are already plans for a potential second round of voting.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Nil Köksal, CBC News

Nil Köksal is the host of World Report, CBC's flagship national radio news show. She begins her mornings with more than a million loyal listeners. She recently returned from her post as CBC’s foreign correspondent in Turkey.

Venezuela's Precipitous Descent into Autocracy

2 political figures killed as Venezuela holds

unpopular vote for new assembly

President Nicolas Maduro vows to go after political foes

after election with aim to rewrite constitution

The Associated Press 

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro greets supporters in Caracas on Saturday.

(Miraflores Palace/Handout via Reuters)

Gunfire has killed a candidate in Venezuela's controversial election for a new assembly tasked with rewriting the country's constitution, as well as an opposition activist, officials said Sunday.

Jose Felix Pineda, a 39-year-old lawyer described as a popular candidate for the Constituent Assembly, was shot in his home in Bolivar City on Saturday night, a tweet from the country's public ministry said.

A group of people broke into his residence and "fired several shots," it said.

Ricardo Campos, a youth secretary for the opposition Democratic Action party, was shot and killed during a street protest in the same city early Sunday, said Henry Ramos Allup, a deputy in the National Assembly and the party's national secretary general.

Two other men were shot and killed during a protest on Saturday night in the town of Chiguara in Merida State in the country's northwest, Venezuelan newspaper El Universal reported.

The violence came before voting began in an election held after four months of political upheaval, which has left about 100 people dead and thousands injured and detained.

President casts pre-dawn vote

President Nicolas Maduro asked for global acceptance on Sunday as he cast an unusual pre-dawn vote for an all-powerful constitutional assembly that his opponents fear he'll use to replace his country's democracy with a single-party authoritarian system.

Accompanied by close advisers and state media, Maduro voted at 6:05 a.m. local time — far earlier and less publicly than in previous elections.

In one of the latest clashes between protesters and the government, a 61-year-old nurse was shot and killed by men accused of being pro-government paramilitaries during a protest at a church, close to the school where Maduro voted.

Maduro and his socialist administration deny links to violent paramilitaries and say the political opposition is responsible for the violence that has left at least 113 dead and nearly 2000 wounded in four months of protests.

"We've stoically withstood the terrorist, criminal violence," Maduro said. "Hopefully the world will respectfully extend its arms toward our country."

Venezuelans living in Bogota, Colombia, demonstrate against the constitutional assembly promoted by President Nicolas Maduro's government. The sign reads, 'Out with Maduro, no more dictatorship.' (Jaime Saldarriaga/Reuters )

The opposition is boycotting Sunday's vote, contending the election has been structured to ensure Maduro's socialist party continues to dominate; all 5,500 candidates for the 545 seats in the constituent assembly are his supporters and the vote's success is being measured by turnout.

The government is encouraging participation with tactics that include offering social benefits like subsidized food to the poor and threatening state workers' jobs if they don't vote.

'Hoping for housing'

Opinion polls say more than 70 per cent of the country is opposed to Sunday's vote and by mid-morning, turnout appeared light in a dozen sites visited by The Associated Press, with dozens or hundreds of voters lining up at polling sites that saw thousands by the same time in previous elections. Some were frank about their motivations for voting: staying in the government's good graces to receive aid.

"I'm here because I'm hoping for housing," said Luisa Marquez, a 46-year-old hairdresser.

Others said they were there out of conviction that the constitutional assembly would help the government fend off what they called an international capitalist conspiracy to undermine Venezuela's socialist system with the help of the domestic opposition.

Communist paranoia, apparently, stems from socialist paranoia.

"The crisis, the shortages of food and medicine, that isn't the government's fault," said Luis Osuna, a 42-year-old private bodyguard. "Those who are attacking us to kill us with hunger and blame the government are the same enemies the government's always had."

Once one of Latin America's wealthiest nations, Venezuela has spiraled into a devastating crisis during Maduro's four years in power, thanks to plunging oil prices and widespread corruption and mismanagement. Inflation and homicide rates are among the world's highest and widespread shortages of food and medicine have citizens dying of preventable illnesses and rooting through trash to feed themselves.

The special assembly being selected Sunday will have powers to rewrite the country's 1999 constitution but will also have powers above and beyond other state institutions, including the opposition-controlled congress.

Opponents have 'prison cell waiting' 

While opinion polls say a vast majority oppose him, Maduro made clear in a televised address Saturday evening that he intends to use the assembly to govern without limitation, describing the vote as "the election of a power that's above and beyond every other. It's the super power!"

He said he wants the assembly to strip opposition legislators of their constitutional immunity from prosecution and indicated he is eager to prosecute many more members of the opposition parties that control a handful of state governments along with the National Assembly, providing one of the few remaining checks on the power of the socialist party that has ruled this OPEC nation for nearly two decades.

A demonstrator looks on during a rally against Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas on July 28, 2017. (Andres Martinez Casares/Reuters)

"The right wing already has its prison cell waiting," the president said. "All the criminals will go to prison for the crimes they've committed."

And the number one crime in Maduro's eyes is, not supporting Maduro.

Saying the assembly will begin to govern within a week, Maduro said its first task in rewriting the constitution will be "a total transformation" of the office of Venezuela's chief prosecutor, a former government loyalist who has become the highest-ranking official to publicly split from the president.

There is no room in Maduro's Venezuela for an honest bureaucrat.

The Trump administration has imposed successive rounds of sanctions on high-ranking members of Maduro's administration, with the support of countries including Mexico, Colombia and Panama.

Vice-President Mike Pence promised on Friday that the U.S. would take "strong and swift economic actions" if the vote went ahead. He didn't say whether the U.S. would sanction Venezuelan oil imports, a measure with the potential to undermine Maduro but cause an even deeper humanitarian crisis here

Maduro's supporters on the Supreme Court set off the protests and clashes between police and demonstrator when they tried to strip the National Assembly of its powers in April.

The opposition has organized a series of work stoppages, as well as a July 16 protest vote that it said drew more than 7.5 million symbolic votes against the constitutional assembly. It called Saturday for roadblocks to start before dawn Sunday and a mass march on Caracas' main highway.

"A new stage in the democratic struggle starts tomorrow," Julio Borges, the president of the National Assembly, said at a news conference called by Democratic Unity, a coalition of some 20 opposition groups. "This new stage will need more courage ... street protests will get stronger."

This deplorable situation will certainly get much worse before it gets better; if it ever gets better.