A Far-Right Party is Poised for a Breakthrough in Spain's Elections for the First Time Since Franco

Vox is projected to win about 10 per cent of the vote

in Sunday's election

CBC News 

Spain's far-right party, Vox, appears to be headed for a major breakthrough in the country's parliamentary elections Sunday. 

Currently polls show that the party, lead by Santiago Abascal, could capture about 10 per cent of the vote. It's a significant development because the far-right hasn't won more than a single seat in Spain's national parliament since the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975.

But Spanish voters feeling the pinch of austerity measures are being drawn to Vox's anti-immigration messaging, joining other countries across Europe where citizens are turning to far-right populist parties. 

Edward Koning is an associate political science professor at the University of Guelph and he specializes in far-right politics in Europe. He spoke with Day 6 host Brent Bambury about what the election means to Spain's future. 

Here's part of that conversation.

Populist parties are rising in a lot of countries across Europe. Why would it be surprising that Vox is poised to win seats in Spain?

If you look at the what political scientists have to say about it they usually point out a couple of explanations. First, the fact that the history of Francoism doesn't really give a good taste to add to the ... extreme right experience. And second, that Spanish politics are being so dominated by controversy about nationalism versus separatism, and in particular the Catalonian and Basque issue, that voters don't really use immigration as an issue to make up their mind [about] which party they will vote for.

So it's not so much that they ... might not be concerned about immigration, but it's not really one that will determine their their vote for one party or another.

Vox banners hang from a bar in Brazatortas, on the edge of the Alcudia valley in central Spain. Spain is preparing

for its third parliamentary election in less than four years, and the far-right Vox party is projected to win seats.

(Bernat Armangue/The Associated Press)

Obviously that's been the situation since Franco. But what's happened in recent years that's adjusted the way people are thinking now?

Spanish politics are really in a state of turmoil and this is usually what we see that when anti-immigrant parties first do well. [It's] always in unusual elections; and these elections are really looking to be very unusual in Spain. 

First of all, there are socioeconomic conditions that are very unusual. The country is still struggling with the ... aftershock of the economic crisis and the austerity measures. The aftermath of the refugee crisis [has also] led to a ... quite significant increase in the number of asylum seekers that entered the country.

But then the political conditions are also very unusual. For one thing, there's still a constitutional crisis about the status of Catalonia. 

What you usually see in countries where anti-immigrant parties do well is that

there is a weird election where they establish themselves.

- Edward  Koning , professor or political science

And on top of that .. the message that populists always want to voice — which is, there is a corrupt and self-serving and politically correct elite that doesn't care about the interests of real ... Spaniards — seems particularly appropriate today.

On the one hand, you have the centre right party, the Partido Popular, which has been embroiled in a massive corruption scandal. This corruption scandal was so damaging to the party that the incumbent government had to step down.

The current prime minister is a man by the name of Pedro Sanchez who is basically everything that a populist likes to criticize. He has a PhD in economics; he's an intellectual. When he's asked about his opinion on immigration, he tends to answer in at least 10 sentences, with nice subordinate clauses.

So if you're a populist and you say the elites are either [corrupt] or don't care about the views of ordinary Spaniards, you have two very easy examples to draw from.

People walk past a billboard of Spanish Prime Minister and Socialist Party candidate Pedro Sánchez in Madrid, Spain. Appealing to Spain's large pool of undecided voters, top candidates on both the right and left are urging Spaniards to

choose wisely and keep the far-right at bay in Sunday's general election. (Andrea Comas/The Associated Press)

You study far right movements in Western Europe. Where does what's happening in Spain fit into the broader trend that you're seeing in that part of the world now?

What you usually see in countries where anti-immigrant parties do well is that there is a weird election where they establish themselves. And then once weird times are over say, so to say, when the conditions stabilize, these parties stick around because by that time they have familiarized the electorate with their presence.

They have established themselves as some sort of credible political player. They have built up some party organization, so they won't go away.

The timing is different because it requires one of those unusual elections.  For example in the Netherlands, where I'm originally from, it was the elections of 2002 that marked this type of watershed.

Since then the Netherlands have been marked by anti-immigrant politics quite significantly and so we can tell a similar story for almost every country where anti-immigrant parties have broken through.

So Spain fits in this story quite neatly.

Edward Koning is a professor of political science at the University of Guelph. He says once far-right parties establish themselves through unusual elections in Western Europe, they tend to stick around. (Submitted by Edward Koning)

That means if Vox wins only 10 per cent of the seats, as they're projected to in tomorrow's election, that's still very significant for Spanish politics going forward.

Absolutely. Yes. It will mean that it's unlikely that we will see this type of party disappear anywhere in the near future.

What you see sometimes is that new anti-immigrant parties are so poorly organized or so centred around one particular person that they kind of blow up once they have any type of responsibility, but that never actually leads to a permanent disappearance of these parties in general.

What instead you'll see that quickly another party will appear that learns from the organizational mistakes of its predecessor and then will secure the anti-immigrant vote in the subsequent elections.

So it's absolutely important because these kinds of parties will stick around. And the other reason why it's very important is that these parties always turn out to be quite influential although to varying degrees in different countries.

Peru Declares Emergency over Influx of Venezuelan Migrants

At least this massive migration is not a cultural assault like Islam migrating into Europe. But it is a lot for a relatively small and poor country to deal with. Venezuela's Maduro is almost completely to blame for his people deserting the country. The US is not without some fault here.

By Danielle Haynes

Venezuelan citizens arrive at the border with Peru, in Huaquillas, Ecuador, on Sunday.

Photo by José Jácome/EPA-EFE

(UPI) -- Peru declared a 60-day health emergency Tuesday as the country deals with an influx of thousands of Venezuelan migrants fleeing an economic crisis back home.

Health officials in Peru are worried about the spread of communicable diseases in the north as Venezuelans crossed the border ahead of new immigration rules. The two countries don't share a common border, but Peruvian authorities say more than 300,000 Venezuelans have immigrated to the country this year.

There are 400,000 Venezuelans living in Peru, 178,000 of which have permission to be there, Voice of America reported.

Peru started requiring passports for Venezuelans entering the country as of Aug. 25.

The International Organization for Migration and the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees said last week that more than 2.3 million Venezuelans are living abroad and more than 1.6 million have left the country since 2015. The U.N. agencies expressed concerns over Peru's new passport requirement.

"We recognize the growing challenges associated with the large scale arrival of Venezuelans. It remains critical that any new measures continue to allow those in need of international protection to access safety and seek asylum," U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said.

Peruvian Foreign Minister Nestor Popolizio told Radio Programas the government has asked the United Nations for assistance with the influx of Venezuelan migrants, Bloomberg reported.

Venezuela's economic crisis, exacerbated by a fall in oil prices, has caused basic goods, including food and medicine, to be in short supply, unavailable or unaffordable.

Millions at Risk as Famine Grips Parts of South Sudan

Otherwise fertile country disrupted by prolonged civil war,

economic crisis

The Associated Press 

A mother holds her child in a hospital ward in Juba, South Sudan, on Jan. 24. Roughly 5.5 million people in South Sudan are expected to be severely food insecure and at risk of death in the coming months. (Siegfried Modola/Reuters)

​Famine has been declared in two counties of South Sudan, according to an announcement by the South Sudan government and three UN agencies, which says the calamity is the result of prolonged civil war and an entrenched economic crisis that has devastated the war-torn East African nation.

The official classification of famine highlights the human suffering caused by South Sudan's three-year civil war and even as it is declared President Salva Kiir's government is blocking food aid to some areas, according to UN officials.

More than 100,000 people in two counties of Unity state are experiencing famine and there are fears that the famine will spread as an additional one million South Sudanese are on the brink of starvation, said the announcement.

"Our worst fears have been realized," said Serge Tissot, head of the Food and Agriculture Organization in South Sudan. He said the war has disrupted the otherwise fertile country, causing civilians to rely on "whatever plants they can find and fish they can catch."

Roughly 5.5 million people, or about 50 per cent of South Sudan's population, are expected to be severely food insecure and at risk of death in the coming months, said the report. It added that nearly three-quarters of all households in the country suffer from inadequate food.

If food aid does not reach children urgently "many of them will die," said Jeremy Hopkins, head of the UN children's agency in South Sudan. Over 250,000 children are severely malnourished Hopkins said, meaning they are at risk of death.

A UN peacekeeper from Ethiopia patrols a disputed area between Sudan and South Sudan on Dec. 14, 2016. When South Sudan fought for independence in 1998, the territory suffered from a famine spurred by civil war. (Albert Gonzalez Farran/AFP/Getty Images)

Drastic decline

It is not the first time South Sudan has experienced starvation. When it fought for independence from Sudan in 1998, the territory suffered from a famine spurred by civil war. Anywhere from 70,000 to several hundred thousand people died during that famine. But Monday's declaration of starvation is solely South Sudan's creation, and a UN official blamed the country's politicians for the humanitarian crisis.

"This famine is man-made,"said Joyce Luma, head of the World Food Program in South Sudan. "There is only so much that humanitarian assistance can achieve in the absence of meaningful peace and security."

Perhaps nowhere else has civil war caused such a drastic decline in South Sudan's food security than in Central Equatoria state, according to the report. Traditionally South Sudan's breadbasket, Central Equatoria has been hit by fighting and ethnically targeted killings that began in July 2016 and have displaced over half a million residents and disrupted agricultural production. As a result, more than a third of Central Equatoria's population is now facing crisis or emergency levels of hunger, according to the report.

A United Nations plane releases sacks of food during an airdrop close on Feb. 18. Tens of thousands of people have died since civil war broke out in 2013, and the UN warns that South Sudan is at risk of genocide. (Siegfried Modola/Reuters)

Fertile land

South Sudan's widespread hunger has been compounded by an economic crisis as well. South Sudan is experiencing severe inflation and the value of its currency has plummeted 800 per cent in the past year, which has made food unaffordable for many families. When The Associated Press visited the western town of Aweil in September, the price of food had risen ten-fold in the previous 12 months.

Although it is not as significant as the effects of war and inflation, some of South Sudan's hunger crisis is the direct result of the government's action. South Sudanese government officials have blocked or placed constraints on the delivery of food aid to areas of the country, according to a UN official who insisted on anonymity because of lack of authorization to speak to the media. On Monday, the UN agencies said that unimpeded humanitarian access "is urgently needed."

Tens of thousands of people have died since civil war broke out in December 2013, and the UN warns that South Sudan is at risk of genocide. Since fighting in the capital of Juba killed hundreds of people in July, the war has uprooted more than three million people.

South Sudan - a fertile land

UN officials have contested that hunger in South Sudan is even more shocking because of the country's fertile land conditions. During her farewell briefing in November as head of the UN mission, Ellen Loj said that South Sudan has the resources and climate to feed itself.

"When I am flying up country I am always surprised to see all that fertile land and there is not anything," Loj said. "You could feed yourself plenty and I hope peace will come to South Sudan."