Bavaria Election: Merkel's Conservative Allies Humiliated

Exit polls show CSU losing majority it has long enjoyed

as far-right AfD, and far-left Greens, makes gains

The Guardian
Kate Connolly and Josie Le Blond in Berlin

The Bavarian leader, Markus Söder, reacts to his party’s worst election result for six decades.

Photograph: Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images

Angela Merkel’s conservative partners in Bavaria have had their worst election performance for more than six decades, in a humiliating state poll result that is likely to further weaken Germany’s embattled coalition government.

The Christian Social Union secured 35.5% of the vote, according to initial exit polls, losing the absolute majority in the prosperous southern state it had had almost consistently since the second world war. The party’s support fell below 40% for the first time since 1954.

Markus Söder, the prime minister of Bavaria, called it a “difficult day” for the CSU, but said his party had a clear mandate to form a government.

Among the main victors was the environmental, pro-immigration Green party, which as predicted almost doubled its voter share to 18.5% at the expense of the Social Democratic party (SPD), which lost its position as the second-biggest party, with support halving to less than 10%.

Annalena Baerbock, the co-leader of the Greens, said: “Today Bavaria voted to uphold human rights and humanity.”

Andrea Nahles, the leader of the SPD, delivered the briefest of reactions at her party’s headquarters in Berlin, calling the results “bitter” and blaming them on the poor performance of the grand coalition in Berlin.

The anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland, which entered the national parliament for the first time after a federal election last year, repeated the feat in Bavaria – once considered to be off-limits – and will enter the regional parliament for the first time having secured about 11% of the vote.

Katrin Ebner-Steiner of the AfD told jubilant party supporters she would spend the next five years “representing your strong voice” at a time when Germany and Bavaria were in a “dreadful state” over migration. “We’re cut from a different wood from the bloodless mainstream parties,” she said, promising to “fight for victory not for us, but for Bavaria”.

The Free Voters, a regional protest party, is also likely to enter parliament, having secured a historic 11.5%. Its leader, Hubert Aiwanger, said shortly after the result that he had called the CSU leadership to start coalition negotiations.

Turnout, at 72.5%, was at its highest level for almost 40 years, thanks in part to the clement weather, in part to the historic nature of the vote.

The CSU, the sister party to Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), has ridden for decades on a ticket of folksy beerhall rhetoric and pledges to protect the heimat (homeland), combined with the drive for economic success – often referred to as “laptop and lederhosen”.

Merkel did not react to the results, but the CDU’s general secretary, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, called them “bitter … but not surprising”, citing the governmental infighting of recent months. She said the party would urgently consult before a state election in Hesse in two weeks’ time. “We need to address the issues which are burning under people’s fingernails,” she added.

At the previous election in 2013, the CSU secured 47.7% of the vote, compared with 62% at the height of its popularity in 1974.

The party more or less took for granted its dominant position as the standalone leader in Bavaria, but its power base started to erode with the demise of the mainstream political landscape across Germany and elsewhere in Europe.

However, the dramatic slide in the CSU’s fortunes coincided with the arrival of about 1 million refugees to Germany in the summer of 2015 through Bavaria, causing uncertainty and some xenophobia.

The CSU leadership under Söder and the party leader, Horst Seehofer – who is also the federal interior minister – did its best to blame the growing sense of instability in Bavaria on Merkel’s refugee policy.

In an effort to tackle the backlash against Muslim refugees, it introduced a law requiring classrooms and public buildings to hang the crucifix and ban the full-face Islamic veils.

The fallout over the refugee crisis and disputes between Seehofer and Merkel over how to control Germany’s border have almost led to the collapse of her fragile coalition.

But in the weeks running up to the election, successive polls showed the CSU’s hardline stance and its near-success in causing the government’s collapse had prompted a haemorrhaging of voters to other parties.

The CSU’s dismal result leaves in doubt the political futures of both Söder and Seehofer.

Speaking on Sunday evening, Seehofer said the party would “draw the necessary consequences” from the poor result over the following weeks, but did not refer to his or Söder’s futures.

The forthcoming makeup of the Bavarian government is unclear, although the Greens have signalled their willingness to enter a coalition with the CSU, which in turn is uneasy about such an alliance. Statistically, the CSU could also form a government with the Free Voters, with whom they have considerably more in common.

Reacting to the vote, Thomas Steinleitner, a baker from the town of Deggendorf who abandoned the CSU for the first time, said the party had lost touch with its supporters.

“They just repeated what the AfD said, and I don’t identify with them any more. The CSU and CDU – all the big parties – it feels like they work together with industry, but us normal people are not important to them,” he said.

This is an aberration for recent elections in the EU. The positioning of AfD in the state parliament is overshadowed by the dramatic doubling of the Greens and the decrease in seats for the CSU. Basically, Bavaria has rejected Seehofer's attempts to move it to the right in regard to immigration and Islamization, and the state has politically shifted a little to the left. This is not a good thing for Germany.

Bavaria, Germany

Germany’s Seehofer Offers to Resign in Migration Clash with Merkel

Germany’s Seehofer offers to resign as CSU leader & interior minister

in migration clash with Merkel

© Michaela Rehle / Reuters

Bavarian CSU leader and Interior Minister Horst Seehofer said he was ready to resign from both of his government posts, due to severe disagreements with Chancellor Angela Merkel over Germany’s migration policy, local media report.

While Seehofer, who has spearheaded the opposition to Merkel’s approach to tackling immigration problems, has not officially submitted his resignation, sources at a closed Christian Social Union presidency meeting told German media that he had made such a proposal and that some party members were trying to change his mind.

A CSU press conference planned for Sunday night has, meanwhile, been cancelled, with Seehofer reportedly planning to make a final attempt at reconciliation with Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union on Monday.

According to reports, Seehofer sees few options for the CSU: Either to stand firm on the immigration dispute and risk undermining the ruling coalition, or to back down and damage the party’s credibility, reports Spiegel editor Melanie Amann. As a third option, the CSU leader reportedly offered to leave his post, possibly in an attempt to boost party members' support of his strategy.

Seehofer had previously warned that, unless Merkel came up with a satisfactory EU-wide solution to dealing with migrants, he would use his power to make sure that asylum-seekers who applied for asylum in states other than those where they’d first entered, would be turned away at the border.

Despite Seehofer wishing Merkel "much luck" ahead of her meeting with other EU members last week, his party has so far failed to approve the extremely vague immigration "compromise," which would ban Brussels from forcing states to set up migrant processing centers.

Ealier, Merkel said she believed the compromise was in line with the requirements of the CSU. "The sum of all we've agreed is equivalent to what the CSU wants – that's my personal view, but the CSU must decide for themselves," she said, as quoted by Reuters.

"It is also sustainable and in accordance with the European ideal. Europe is slow, and we aren't yet where we want to be... In my view Europe will be held together, otherwise free movement could have been in danger," she added.

But the disagreement with the immigration 'compromise' didn't only come from within Germany. Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic all stated that a final deal had not been reached, despite Merkel's claim that she had received "political consent" from 14 nations to strike a deal. 

Merkel's party is aiming to reach a deal which would satisfy voters in the upcoming Bavarian state election in October, in an attempt to prevent the right-wing and anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party from making gains. The topic of immigration is a hot one in Bavaria, as the state is the main transit point into Germany for migrants. The leader of the Left party Katja Kipping accused  CSU of taking "all Germany and Europe in hostage for an inner party power struggle."

She's just trying to get into the conversation

Preliminary Coalition Talks in Germany Suggest Immigration Continue at About 200,000 /yr

New German parliament to cap refugee inflow & scrap tax hike – coalition roadmap

Bundestag, Berlin © Fabrizio Bensch / Reuters

German parties have agreed upon a 28-page blueprint, forming a possible basis for breaking the stalemate in coalition talks, according to German lawmakers.

Speaking to reporters following 25-hour-long talks, the leaders of the three parties praised the “excellent” results, but stressed that on many points – notably migration and taxes – there is still much work to be done. The party delegates are now to discuss the draft with members to pave the way for formal coalition talks.

The leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Martin Schulz, who previously shunned the notion of a coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel, has come around to forming a government with her bloc.

“We Social Democrats, in our [leadership] committee, decided unanimously to recommend... to the party congress giving the party leadership a mandate to pursue coalition negotiations to form a government,” Schulz said on Friday.

Merkel is optimistic about the possibility of forming a coalition with the Social Democrats. The chancellor said that the newly-formed government would be a “new awakening” for Europe, vowing also to come to an agreement with France over the future of the EU.

Moving even further to the left could hardly be called a 'new awakening'. Left-leaning governments in the EU are seriously bringing cultural suicide home with reckless and idiotic Islamization. Merkel thinks she can control Islam in Germany, but she will find out too late that it is absurd.

Merkel’s conservative bloc ally, Horst Seehofer, said that if Schulz's party supports the blueprint, a formal coalition agreement may be reached before Easter.

A member of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) as well as another lawmaker from the CDU’s Bavarian sister-party CSU, Dorothee Bar, tweeted the photo of the document’s cover on Friday.

“Many, many hours of painstaking work and alignment are contained in these 28 pages,”member of the Christian Democratic Union or CDU Julia Klockner said.

The draft suggests keeping the number of refugees coming to Germany within the range of 180,000-220,000 per year, according to German media. The document reportedly covered the refugees’ family reunification process, suspending it till a new law is adopted and aiming to finally cap it at 1,000 people per month. The heads of the coalition parties also ruled out the tax increases earlier demanded by the SDP.

Considered a potential breakthrough on a new grand coalition following months of political uncertainty, the document could nevertheless be changed before the start of the formal talks.

Merkel’s conservative bloc, including the CDU and the CSU, embarked on negotiations over the potential forming of a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Martin Schulz on Saturday. Should the outcome be fruitful, it may pave the way to forming a grand coalition of the two biggest parties.The parties clashed over a number of crucial issues, including refugee policies, the future of the European Union and budgeting.

Germany Still Struggling to Put Together a Functional Government

Good match? Merkel & Social Democrats still at odds on major issues

as coalition talks gets underway

Angela Merkel is apparently doing her best trying to hammer out a coalition deal with the Social Democrats to finally get a functioning government. 

On Sunday, Merkel’s conservative bloc consisting of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally, the (CSU), embarked on negotiations over the potential forming of a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Martin Schulz.

The two sides have just five days to try and find common ground. Should the outcome be successful, it may pave a way to the majority government.

But the parties are still divided on a number of crucial issues which could make a finding a solution palatable to both camps a bridge too far. In fact, in November 2017, Schulz ruled out any possibility of a new government with Merkel. And even though he recently made a U-turn on that position, the SPD chief was clear that his party wants “to push through as many red policies in Germany as possible." In addition, Schulz also faces opposition within his own ranks which wants the SPD to part ways with Merkel’s bloc.

Refugee policies

Confronted by public discontent over her handling of the refugee crisis and the rise of the right-wing Alternative for Germany party, Merkel and her party decided to adopt a tougher policy, including accelerated deportation. In October, the CDU and the CSU agreed to limit the number of asylum seekers entering Germany.

The CSU – the leading political force in Bavaria – went further and proposed even stricter measures. They included cutting benefits to refugees, introducing mandatory age tests for asylum seekers, and extending the ban on refugees to reunite with their families.

These proposals seem to be at odds with the SPD stance. Most recently, the Social Democrats criticized the ideas of suspending family reunification for refugees as well as of mandatory age tests for underage asylum seekers. The SPD is also against the deportation of Syrian refugees, citing the security situation there.

The future of EU

The future of Europe is also a potential stumbling block in the ‘grand coalition’ talks. While Schulz is strongly advocating for the creation of a “United States of Europe” by 2025, (adding that all those who disagree should leave the bloc), the CSU leader Horst Seehofer invited the outspoken euro-skeptic, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to his party's conference in southern Bavaria.

Orban is known for his staunch euro-skepticism posture and combative attitude towards Brussels. He reiterated his position that nation states should have more power within the Union, particularly in the field of labor and financial policy. Hungary's PM added that he is opposed to “replacing a nation [state’s] responsibility with national irresponsibility.”

Military spending

Another potential hurdle is defense spending. Merkel’s conservative bloc seeks to significantly increase Germany’s defense budget to raise overall military spending to 2 percent of its GDP. The CDU/CSU alliance also advocates increasing the number of the German Armed Forces personnel by 18,000 and providing the military with new equipment and weapons.

The Social Democrats, in contrast, are strongly against increased defense spending, and support a “disarmament initiative.” They also suggest limiting the export of small arms to only NATO and EU countries.

This strikes me as the only sensible plank in Schulz's platform. I hate the reckless and unnecessary spending on militaries in Europe and the sale of arms to countries they could very well end up fighting in the future. It benefits arms manufacturers and no-one else. This is 'deep-state' theology!

The talks with the Social Democrats are considered by some experts to be Merkel’s last chance to form a majority coalition. Should the negotiations collapse, Germany would face new elections or a minority Merkel government.

Meanwhile, public support for the ‘grand coalition’ seems to be waning as the public mood appears to be shifting towards new elections. A recent poll showed that a new vote is backed by more Germans than those supporting a continuation of the coalition talks.

“The trust in the grand coalition is beginning to diminish quite considerably in the German population,” Rainer Rothfuss, a German geopolitics scholar, told RT. He said the next elections may come earlier than expected, and that Merkel has failed as a negotiator while reaching out to the liberals, represented by the Free Democratic Party and the Greens during last year’s failed coalition talks.

Apparently, she is unwilling to attempt a coalition with the AfD and FDP. 

‘Germany Must Remain Germany’: Bavarian Leader Drafts Tough Migrant Policy Proposals

Seehofer to the rescue

‘Germany must remain Germany’: Bavarian leader drafts tough migrant policy proposals – report

© Leonhard Foeger / Reuters

A charter reiterating strict German migration limits and calling for new Turkey-like refugee agreements with third countries is reportedly being drafted by the leader of Germany’s Christian Social Union (CSU).

A program dubbed ‘Germany must remain Germany’ has been reportedly prepared by the Bavarian Prime Minister and the leader of CSU Horst Seehofer. The document is expected to be published on Tuesday, according to a report of Munich's local newspaper the Münchner Merkur.

The charter outlines the CSU’s position on Germany’s and the EU’s migration challenges. The document has been authored mainly by Seehofer, but also contains a number of proposals from Bavarian ministers, as well as input from other federal and state government officials, according to the Münchner Merkur.

There is however reference to the CSU’s commitment for further admission of “those in need of protection” into the country, despite the calls for migration limits and more stringent controls at the EU’s external borders.

“The inclusion of those in need of protection is a requirement of Christian and humanitarian responsibility,” states the charter according to the publication.

Germany should conduct its migration policy with “zero tolerance against xenophobia, racism and anti-Semitism.” Seehofer is also advocating for an “African act” within the European Union - designed to help troubled states outside the EU, and establishing refugee centers in third countries.

“It was only the EU-Turkey agreement that led to the relief of the EU’s external borders in Greece,” the charter states. “However, such third-country agreements cannot be linked to inappropriate topics, such as EU accession, and visa-free agreements.”

The charter also calls for revision of family reunification policies, as the right to live in the EU must become strictly “self-earned.” In addition, elder migrants must be subjected to limited social support payments as they had spent the most their working lives outside the EU, the documents says.

The migrant influx must be regulated by an “orderly procedure” and according to quotas which ensure a “fair and sound burden distribution to the EU must not exceed the limits of the absorption capacity of a country,” the charter states.

The document reiterates the controversial idea of capping refugee numbers at 200,000 a year, and Seehofer also wants other EU member states to impose upper migration limits.

Migration policy has been the main source of tension between Seehofer and his ally Chancellor Merkel and her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party. Seehofer and Merkel are expected to hold a joint “reconciliation summit” in February before jointly campaigning for September’s elections.

Angela Merkel has come to realize how idiotic, irresponsible and destructive her 2015 Open Doors policy was. Turkey came to her rescue in 2016 in dramatically reducing the migrant flow, now Seehofer is apparently 'forcing' her to capitulate on the culturally suicidal policy, just in time for an election. Seehofer is a veritable knight in shining armor.

While Seehofer has threatened to quit the alliance after the election if Germany’s migrant policy is not radically overhauled, some members of his party are calling for a united front in the run up to the elections.

“I believe it is in the interests of both the CDU and CSU sister parties that we enter the federal election campaign united,” CSU MP Stephan Mayer told party’s fellow members at an annual retreat, according to Deutsche Welle.

Mayer and Armin Schuster of the CDU wrote a letter to the Chancellor and Seehofer, proposing a flexible migration limit, which can be amended each year, DW reported. The idea seems to be compromise between Seehofer’s hardline approach and Merkel’s so called “open door” migration policy.

“The proposal envisages a concept for the establishment of a 'breathing' benchmark for the possible admission of people in need of protection in Germany,” DW quoted the letter as saying.

No to Multi-Culturalism? Merkel’s Bavarian Allies Call for ‘Dominant’ National, Christian Values

 
© Fabrizio Bensch / Reuters

The Bavarian ruling party and Merkel’s ally CSU has proposed a set of new measures aimed at toughening Germany’s refugee policy and fostering integration and particularly called for enshrining the priority of the German traditional and Christian values in the legislation.

“Germany must stay Germany,” says the document by the Christian Social Union party (CSU), which was published by the Bavarian Kurier daily. “We are against our open-to-the-world country being changed through migration and inflow of refugees,” it adds, emphasizing that “it is not the Germans, who should look up to the refugees…” but, on the contrary those who come to Germany should adopt German culture.

The paper also lashes out at the multiculturalism policy advocated by Merkel. It proposes to introduce a “dominant culture” (Leitkultur) rule in Bavaria that would mean the opposite to multi-culturalism and would encompass all the German traditional national and Christian values as well as customs and traditions.

Germany is actually living in a post-Christian culture but most values are still sacred, if nothing else is.

Multiculturalism becomes unworkable when there is mass migration of a single culture into a state with significantly different values. There has to be some give on both sides for any possibility of it working, but many Muslims are intractable and expect the Germans to give way to their backward culture from the Dark Ages. If they do, it's a slippery slope and will eventually lead to the end of the post-Christian culture in Germany.

Such dominant, or “guiding” culture, the paper says, should become the basis of social development and integration. It calls it “the best countermeasure against the [creation of] parallel societies and ghettos” demanding to enshrine the particular set of values in the Bavarian Constitution.

The document also calls for an introduction of an annual upper limit for new arrivals that would amount to 200,000 people, citing the necessity to curb the massive refugee influx to facilitate successful integration.

It also says that Germany should favor migrants and refugees with “Christian western culture,” which is close to the European values.

The paper also advocates the re-introduction of full border controls on the German borders “as long as [the system] of protection of the EU external borders does not function,” stressing that the nation “should not tolerate illegal border crossings.”

At the same time, the paper says that only those who are granted entry should be able to come to Germany with all asylum requests being processed directly at the border in specially established “transit zones.” The document also points out that those who are denied entry should be sent back directly at the border.


‘Find another country to wear burqa’

The CSU policy paper also advocates stricter integration rules and says that integration is a duty of those who come to live in Germany. It particularly calls burqa and niqab “a uniform of Islamism, an absolute barrier to integration and a symbol of the repression of women that is unacceptable in [German] culture.”

“Those, who do not want to give up wearing burqa and niqab, should find another country,” the paper says, adding that the CSU will seek “a ban on burqa in all public places, wherever it is legally possible.”

The document also says that any forms of “parallel justice” and “erosion of the German system of justice,” including unofficial Muslim sharia courts, child marriages, forced marriages and polygamy, are unaccepted and should be by no means tolerated.

The paper adds that Germany also should not “tolerate immigration into its welfare system,” emphasizing that refugees and migrants must provide for living themselves instead of just getting social benefits.

That's pretty much impossible sometimes. What are you going to do let people starve?

Another point of the CSU is that asylum does not equals to a “permit for committing crimes in Germany” and those found guilty of committing any crimes should automatically lose their right for asylum and be sent out.


‘One cannot be servant of two masters’

The issue of double citizenship is particularly highlighted in the new CSU policy paper, which refers to it as a huge barrier to integration that leads to “double loyalty.” 

“One cannot be a servant of two masters,” the paper says, adding that “those who want to be Germans do not need any other citizenship.” The paper demands an end to dual citizenship as well as an annulation of the regulation that allowed the children of non-German citizens, who were born on German soil and lived in Germany for a long time, to be automatically recognized as Germans.

The CSU also expressed its opposition to the idea of visa liberalization for Turkish citizens and criticized Turkey for “moving away from European and western values” as well as for not fulfilling the necessary requirements for visa liberalization. It also said that the implementation of the refugee deal between Turkey and the EU should not be linked to some “unrelated issues, such as visa liberalization or Turkey’s accession to the EU.”


‘Irresponsible’ and ‘racist’

The document immediately provoked a wave of indignation among German left-wing politicians, who labeled it “irresponsible” and “racist.” Some of them said that it is highly reminiscent of what the right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), demands.

The Green Party leader, Simone Peter, said that the CSU was apparently seeking to become “the Bavarian sister party of the AfD.” At the moment, CSU is commonly referred to as the sister party of the Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with both parties sharing the common origin and core program. The CDU does not operate in Bavaria while being present in all other 15 German states.

Jan Korte, an MP from the Left Party, denounced the new policy paper of the CSU as “irresponsible, backward-looking and brimming with hypocrisy.” He also called the idea of selecting migrants by cultural background “racist” and a violation of the German constitution and international human rights conventions.

The new policy paper comes after the electoral success of the right-wing populist and anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), which beat Merkel’s CDU in several regional elections a year before the national elections to the parliament.

On September 4, the AfD placed second in state elections, ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in her home state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Established in 2013 following the euro crisis, the AfD is already represented in eight out of 16 state parliaments.

Horst Seehofer, the leader of the conservative CSU, has long criticized Angela Merkel’s open-door policy and earlier already proposed to introduce a cap of 200,000 refugees pro year.

Seehofer, who is also the head of the German state of Bavaria, which is a transit region for the vast majority of all asylum seekers arriving in Germany, several times threatened to take the German Chancellor to the Constitutional Court if she fails to change the country’s refugee policy.