Latin America shifts right in 2025 and aligns with Trump
Chile's result strengthened a regional trend that is reshaping domestic political balances and points to closer political and economic alignment with the United States.
Chile became the latest country in the region to deliver an electoral swing by handing victory to the opposition and rejecting the ruling coalition's candidate backed by President Gabriel Boric, a leftist.
The outcome reflects a new regional political map marked by the erosion of progressive projects and the advance of right-wing alternatives, many of them campaigning on hardline positions on security, economic policy and governance.
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With Chile, nine Latin American countries are now governed by right-leaning presidents. In 2025, Bolivia joined the group with the election of Rodrigo Paz, while Honduras awaits an electoral decision between two conservative candidates.
The bloc also includes Santiago Pena in Paraguay, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, Javier Milei in Argentina, Luis Abinader in the Dominican Republic, Jose Raul Mulino in Panama and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, who was re-elected in 2024 and has emerged as one of the region's most prominent conservative leaders.
"Latin America is indeed shifting to the right, although this is a pendulum movement," political analyst Roberto Munita told UPI. "We saw something similar when Argentina elected Macri, Chile elected Sebastian Pinera and a series of right-wing presidents took office in Colombia and Brazil under Bolsonaro. That was followed by a shift to the left."
Munita said the current wave of conservative leaders shows significant internal differences.
"Milei's Argentina is far more populist than what a Kast government would likely be," he said. "Noboa and Bukele have been much more controversial and less respectful of political institutions. At the same time, some presidents are more conservative, while others are more liberal. So while there are shared elements, there are also important differences."
International analyst Pablo Lacoste, an academic at the Institute for Advanced Studies at the University of Santiago, told UPI that these leaders came to power in response to deep fiscal deficits, high inflation, stalled economic activity and widespread social discontent.
"In the cases of Bolivia and Argentina, the leadership of the MAS and Kirchnerism left both countries in poverty, creating a demand for change driven more by the weaknesses of outgoing governments than by the political strength of the new projects," Lacoste said. "They were largely the result of protest votes. That is a shared characteristic, which Honduras could also join."
Lacoste also pointed to a strong link between the election of these leaders and rising irregular migration and a regional deterioration in security conditions.
"What all Latin American countries have in common is the impact of Venezuela's humanitarian crisis, which has forced about 8 million Venezuelans to leave the country," he said.
He added that most of those migrants settled in neighboring countries that "were not prepared to absorb a migration wave of this magnitude."
While many migrants have gradually integrated into host countries, Lacoste said the negative side has been the spread of organized crime, drug trafficking and rising insecurity.
"Maduro has sent the Tren de Aragua and extremely dangerous criminals, which has had an impact on crime rates and the perception of insecurity, particularly in Chile, Peru and Colombia," Lacoste said.
He added that the situation has put those countries' security structures under severe strain.
In response, more conservative political forces have offered answers to public concerns. "In many cases, progressive governments have lacked the cultural tools to respond adequately," Lacoste said.
Political analyst Roberto Munita said the conservative shift is also tied to a growing anti-communist sentiment and opposition to the so-called woke agenda.
"Eventually, a change in direction will become evident, because what distinguishes right-wing governments is a tougher stance on migration, security and the fight against organized crime," Munita said.
The shift is also reshaping Latin America's relationship with the United States.
"It opens an interesting door, especially for the agenda of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has always kept an eye on Latin America," Munita said.
Lacoste added that the shift "creates an opportunity for the United States to build a close relationship and a strong alliance."
"After Sept. 11, 2001, the United States largely forgot about Latin America and shifted its focus to the Middle East," he said. "Now, under Trump and his proposal to place greater emphasis on domestic issues, we see the United States moving away from the Middle East and Europe and placing more emphasis on the Americas."
Lacoste highlighted the support provided by the U.S. Treasury to the government of Argentine President Javier Milei.
"It helped prevent a currency run that threatened the government in late September," he said. "Trump's support was decisive in allowing Milei to win the October election and he is using it as a demonstration effect. The message is that those who align with his political approach can receive help, and that message is aimed at all other countries."
Analysts expect the trend to reach other countries, including Colombia, which is to hold presidential elections in May. Munita said it is likely the country will also move toward the new regional political map.
"Colombia has historically had more right-wing governments than left-wing ones," he said. "President Petro has been widely criticized, making it difficult for his political coalition to retain power."
Lacoste agreed with the assessment.
"Colombia's government has been politically close to Maduro, and it is now paying the cost of that position," he said. "As a result, its chances in the upcoming elections appear increasingly complicated."
Peru and Brazil face a different scenario ahead of their presidential elections in April and October, respectively.
"Bolsonaro has aged poorly politically and does not have a clearly positioned successor," Munita said. "By contrast, Lula appears to be at his strongest. Peru is highly volatile.
"The country's main challenge is ensuring that its leaders complete their terms. Voters are likely to favor a serious and responsible leader, even if that person is not ideologically close to them."
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