Politics in Europe > Germany's Elections - no surprises, unfortunately

 

Germany’s ‘no surprise’ election yields many firsts

Analysis

Europe

As predicted by pre-election opinion polls, Germany’s conservatives swept to victory in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, with their leader Friedrich Merz set to become the new chancellor. The far-right AfD's second position also came as no surprise. But it was a historic first in an election set to bring major changes for Europe's economic powerhouse. 

Issued on: 23/02/2025 - 23:27Modified: 23/02/2025 - 23:28

6 min

By:

Leela JACINTOFollow

Friedrich Merz addresses supporters at the CDU party headquarters in Berlin, February 23, 2025, after the German national election. © Markus Schreiber, AP

German elections tend to be characterised by a plodding certainty, with polls accurately predicting frontrunners – who invariably fail to win outright parliamentary majorities, leading to coalition-building periods.

Sunday’s high-stakes national elections, which will see a new government running Europe’s economic powerhouse, was no exception.

Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Friedrich Merz won the election, with early results putting his bloc in the lead – as predicted by the polls.

But the 2025 vote to elect 639 members to the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, did yield a first in Germany’s postwar history.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came second, scoring between 19 to 20 percent of the vote, according to early results.

AfD’s 46-year-old leader, Alice Weidel, had every reason to rejoice on Sunday night. "We have achieved a historic result," she told party supporters cheering and waving the German national flag at an election night party in Berlin. “We have become the second-strongest force" in German politics, she noted.

Leader of far right AfD Alice Weidel waves a German flag at the AfD party headquarters in Berlin, February 23, 2025. © Michael Probst, AP

For many German citizens and the mainstream politicians, it was an anticipated but still shocking result, sounding the death knell for the notion that the country, still seeking to atone for the Holocaust, was immune to a far right-wing revival. 

The AfD is “open for coalition negotiations” with the centre-right CDU, Weidel told supporters in Berlin.

That is unlikely to happen. A historic “firewall” prevents mainstream German parties from forming alliances with the far right.

Germans are still dealing with the problem that largely went away 80 years ago while ignoring the hordes of invaders of the past ten years. Can there be any hope for Germany?

Merz sparked an uproar last month when he tabled a non-binding motion in parliament, which passed with AfD support. But on the campaign trail, Merz ruled out any coalition with the AfD. He reiterated it Sunday night, when he categorically stated, “I always said there was no question of a coalition with the AfD.”

The taboo may be holding, but the political signals of the latest vote were nonetheless disturbing, according to Werner Krause from the University of Potsdam. “Even if the AfD isn't part of the coalition, it's an historic result for them. It’s nearly double their 2021 result,” he said, referring to the far-right party’s 10 percent score in the previous parliamentary elections.

“Clearly this has been coming, they’ll have a spring in their step,” said Ed Turner, a German politics expert at Aston University. “But it looks most unlikely that they’ll have 25 percent of the seats in the Bundestag, which would have enabled them to make some mischief with parliamentary procedure.”

Scholz’s party suffers a defeat

There were other historic firsts on Sunday night. With a turnout of more than 83 percent, the 2025 elections had the highest turnout in a country known for its high voter turnout rates.

“The historical turnout is a result of this election being very polarising, meaning more people than before thought it was important to speak out their mind by voting,” said Jan Philipp Thomeczek from the University of Potsdam. “Germany has experienced a very polarised campaign – particularly around the issue of immigration – which tends to push voters to vote in greater numbers to defend their position,” he added.

Yes, Germans defend their position while the country goes to Hell in a handbasket.

In the polls, German voters delivered a categorical verdict on Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which led the country for three years until its collapse in a no-confidence vote in December.

“The SPD, for the first time in its history, is no longer one of the two major political forces,” said Krause.

A flagging economy and high inflation, boosted by high energy bills, saw the ruling SPD drop in popularity, a downturn that was seized by Merz on the campaign trail, when he called the Scholz-led period “the three lost years” for Germany.

Complex coalition arithmetic

Scholz took the reins following Angela Merkel’s 16 years as chancellor, leading a “traffic light” coalition with the Greens and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).

In the world of Germany’s coalition politics, an alliance between the two major parties, the CDU and SPD, is called “the grand coalition” and is considered the most stable government.

But a grand coalition would depend on the final results for Germany’s smaller parties in the complex parliamentary arithmetic of the Bundestag, said Paul Hockenos, a Berlin-based journalist and author of several books, including “Berlin Calling”.

“The easiest and the most expected coalition is going to be between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. But we don't know that for sure, simply because the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats do not have enough to put together a majority if these smaller parties get in,” explained Hockenos.

The end of the ‘Merkel era’

One of the big surprises of Sunday night was the unexpectedly strong showing of the far-left Der Linke party, which appeared to be heading for at least 8.5 percent of the vote.

“Just a couple of months ago, anybody would have said that Die Linke, the left party, had no more chance to get in, probably less of a chance even, than some of the other smaller parties,” said Hockenos. “I think many of them probably came from the Greens, who were dissatisfied with the more conservative, pragmatic Green [agenda] that Robert Habeck put forward.”

Habeck, the Greens' candidate for chancellor, has said the results of Sunday’s vote showed a rise in the popularity of extremist parties from the far right and far left.

“We have seen the centre is weakened overall, and everyone should look at themselves and ask whether they didn't contribute to that,” said Habeck.

The Greens leader, who serves as Germany’s vice chancellor in Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition, called on Merz to moderate his tone after a hard-fought campaign.

“Now he must see that he acts like a chancellor,” said Habeck.

As the country’s expected new chancellor – whatever the coalition configuration – Merz, who has no previous experience in office, is set to lead Europe's largest economy at a turning point in the continent’s history as Europe is caught between a confrontational US under President Donald Trump and an assertive Russia.

After three years of leftist governance, Germany is set to be ruled, once again, by the CDU.

But Merz is unlike Germany’s last CDU chancellor, Merkel, according to Hockenos.

“Merz is a very different kind of politician. He's neoliberal. He's as conservative as the far right on migration. And he also has no governance experience – he’s never led a state or a country, he's never even been mayor. He's also different from Merkel: he's not a dispassionate, always level-headed kind of politician.”

That could mark the biggest change in a country known for its stability. “Olaf Scholz, although he was a Social Democrat, was much more like Merkel. ... You could actually say that the era of Merkel is coming to an end now, so different is Friedrich Merz from both Merkel and Scholz.”

(FRANCE 24's Sebastien Seibt contributed to this report.)

If Merz needs a third or even a fourth party to form a coalition, it will have to come from the far-left and it means he will get little or nothing done on the migrant file. The disastrous effects of Islamization will continue to increase in Germany.

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European Politics > Germany's coalition government collapses

 

Germany’s coalition crumbles,

Scholz ignores calls for snap elections

By Kirsten Grieshaber  The Associated Press

Posted November 8, 2024 5:44 am

 4 min read

After Germany’s government coalition collapsed in a dramatic fashion when Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the pro-business Free Democrats, Scholz said he would lead the country with a minority government, despite calls from opposition leaders on Thursday for early elections.

The chancellor said the minority government would be made up of his Social Democrats and the Greens until early next year — even as the leader of the biggest opposition bloc in parliament, Friedrich Merz from the center-right Christian Democrats, called for an immediate no-confidence vote and new elections.

Scholz stressed again on Thursday, that he does not want to call a vote of confidence before Jan. 15.

“The citizens will soon have the opportunity to decide anew how to proceed,” the chancellor said, according to the German news agency dpa. “That is their right. I will therefore put the vote of confidence to the Bundestag at the beginning of next year.”

A meeting with Merz and Scholz at the chancellery around noontime Thursday about a possible date for the next election ended after less than an hour with Merz leaving without commenting on the talks.

Later on Thursday, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier gave fired Finance Minister Lindner and two other Free Democrats officials who had resigned — Research Minister Bettina Stark-Watzinger and Justice Minister Marco Buschmann — their certificates of dismissal.

2:13

Germany’s far-right AfD narrowly held back in 3rd state election

Transport Minister Volker Wissing, who is also with the Free Democrats, said that after talks with Scholz, he had decided to stay in office and instead leave the party. Scholz asked him to add the justice ministry to his portfolio.

Steinmeier also appointed Jörg Kukies, an economic adviser to Scholz, as finance minister. Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir from the Greens agreed to take on the research ministry.

Scholz had announced late Wednesday that he would seek a vote of confidence on Jan. 15 that he said might lead to an early election, perhaps as soon as March. The vote had otherwise been due next September.

After firing his finance minister, the chancellor had accused Lindner of breaching his trust and publicly calling for a fundamentally different economic policy, including what Scholz said would be tax cuts worth billions for a few top earners while at the same time cutting pensions for all retirees.

“That is not decent,” Scholz said.

The chancellor hopes that his minority government — Scholz’s left-leaning Social Democrats with the remaining coalition partner, the environmentalist Greens — will get the support from Merz’s Christian Democrats in parliament in the coming weeks, to pass important legislation and plugging the billion-euro hole in the 2025 budget.

However, Merz on Thursday vehemently rejected Scholz’s plan to wait to hold a vote of confidence until January.

2:53

Neo-Nazi networks increasing, Scholz says as Germans gather to protest far-right AfD party

“The coalition no longer has a majority in the German Bundestag, and we therefore call on the chancellor … to call a vote of confidence immediately, or at the latest by the beginning of next week,” Merz said.

“We simply cannot afford to have a government without a majority in Germany for several months now, and then campaign for several more months, and then possibly conduct coalition negotiations for several weeks,” Merz added.

Since Scholz’s government doesn’t have a majority in parliament any longer, he would likely lose the vote. In that scenario, Germany’s president could dissolve parliament within 21 days and an early election could then be held as soon as January.

“During these 21 days, we will have enough time to find out whether there are any issues that we may have to decide on together,” Merz said, offering his party’s cooperation with the minority government. “We are, of course, prepared to hold talks … we are also prepared to take responsibility for our country.”

Achim Wambach from the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research cast doubt that a prolonged period with a minority government would help Germany’s economy get back on track.

“Germany’s problems are too big to tolerate political gridlock,” the analyst said.

3:02

Germany’s far-right political parties capitalizing on immigration fears

“The government set out to reconcile the transformation towards climate neutrality with economic growth and social security,” Wambach added. “It has not lived up to this claim. The economy is stagnating and investments are failing to materialize.”

“This daunting task was compounded by geo-economic tensions: wars in Europe and the Middle East as well as economically damaging interventions through tariffs and national subsidy policies,” he added. “ The election of Donald Trump has exacerbated these problems. Europe must do more for its security and will have to reckon with increased tariffs.”

The collapse of the coalition came after weeks of disputes among the coalition partners over ways to boost the country’s ailing economy.

Lindner’s pro-business Free Democrats had rejected tax increases or changes to Germany’s strict self-imposed limits on running up debt. Scholz’s Social Democrats and the Greens wanted to see major state investment and rejected the Free Democrats’ proposals to cut welfare programs.

Which means Germany will continue to be the main attraction in Europe for economic migrants from Islam.

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The Islamization of Europe > Austrian Far-Right party wins national election - will they be allowed to govern?

 

Another European country, Austria, fights back against Islamization

‘Earthquake’: Austria’s far-right Freedom Party

wins election

The far right might struggle to form a coalition because most other parties have said they will not work with it.

Al Jazeera

Like most, if not all European countries, ruling requires 50%+1 in Parliament. This can only be achieved through a coalition of two or three parties since getting 50% or more of a national vote is almost unheard of. Consequently, if the party with the most votes is unable to find a party to form a coalition with them, they could end up losing control of the government to two or three parties with fewer votes.

Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO) has topped the country’s national elections in a historic victory but is likely to struggle to find partners that would enable it to form a governing coalition.

The FPO won 28.8 percent of votes, beating the ruling conservative People’s Party (OVP) into second place at 26.3 percent, according to near-complete results.

While the FPO has served in coalition governments before, it is the first time it has won a national vote and comes as far-right parties across Europe have made gains.

All other parties in the country, however, have rejected forming a coalition with the Eurosceptic, Russia-friendly FPO, which was founded in the 1950s under the leadership of a former Nazi lawmaker. Leader Herbert Kickl is also a provocative and polarising figure, roundly disliked by other party leaders.

“We have written a piece of history together today,” the 55-year-old Kickl told cheering supporters in Vienna. “We have opened a door to a new era.”

Like other far-right parties elsewhere in Europe, the FPO’s popularity has surged amid voter anger over issues such as migration, the state of the economy and restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This is typical Al Jazeera journalism. They have completely hidden any reference to the European problem with Islamic migration. Kickl makes it clear that this is his priority, as it is with the new Dutch government, and Giorgia Meloni in Italy. Britain, on the other hand is still in myopic denial.

“This is certainly an earthquake and sends a shockwave through all the other parties,” political analyst Thomas Hofer told the AFP news agency.

‘Our hand is outstretched’

Kickl, who took over the party’s leadership in 2021, said he was ready to form a government with “each and every one” of the parties in parliament.

“Our hand is outstretched in all directions,” he said.

Among FPO supporters, the atmosphere was festive, as supporters wearing traditional Austrian dress downed glasses of beer.

“It’s a real success … It will be a very, very exciting time” with the FPO trying to form a government, said Erik Berglund, a waiter. The 35-year-old hailed Kickl as the “most competent leader”.

Chancellor Karl Nehammer, who managed to close the gap on the FPO in recent weeks in opinion polls, acknowledged that he had fallen short.

“It was a race to catch up and, unfortunately, we didn’t manage it,” said 51-year-old Nehammer, as he promised to “continue to fight for the people’s interests”.

Nehammer could nevertheless remain chancellor by forming a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPO) and possibly another party, probably the liberal NEOS.

Coalescing with two left-wing parties would be political suicide after nearly a third of Austrians voted for FPO.

The SPO got 21.1 percent, similar to their record-low 2019 results, while NEOS was at 9.2 percent. A three-party coalition would be a first, but analysts say it might struggle to govern given the country’s shift to the right.

A coalition between the far right and the conservatives – in power since 1987 – also remains a possibility, say analysts.

The FPO’s first government with the conservatives in 2000 set off widespread protests and sanctions from Brussels.

The second collapsed over a spectacular FPO corruption scandal in 2019 after just a year and a half in power.

More than 6.3 million of Austria’s nine million people were eligible to vote.

Nehammer reiterated his refusal to work with Kickl, who has called himself the future “Volkskanzler”, the people’s chancellor, as Adolf Hitler was termed in the 1930s.

Kickl regularly attacks European Union sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

So, he doesn't agree with NATO's proxy war with Russia. This will turn all the world's war industry oligarchs against him.

Kathrin Stainer-Haemmerle, a political science professor at the Carinthia University of Applied Sciences, said if Kickl did manage to become chancellor, Austria’s role in the EU would be “significantly different”.

“Kickl has often said that [Hungarian Prime Minister] Viktor Orban is a role model for him and he will stand by him,” she told the Reuters news agency.

Orban is an excellant role model.

European Politics > Wilders to form Dutch government coalition, but won't be PM

 

Netherlands: Geert Wilders agrees to deal

to form coalition Dutch government

MAY 16, 2024 12:30 PM BY CHRISTINE DOUGLASS-WILLIAMS

After months of difficult negotiations, Geert Wilders has finally agreed to a deal

to form a coalition government, minus himself as prime minister

by Senay Boztas, Guardian, May 15, 2024:

The Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders has agreed the basis of his first rightwing coalition government in the Netherlands.

Six months after his shock win of a quarter of parliamentary seats, his anti-Islam, anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) will take the lead in an uneasy four-party coalition.

In an agreement that needs to be formally voted through by the individual parliamentary parties on Wednesday evening, he will form a government with the centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the New Social Contract party (NSC) and the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB).

However, the 60-year-old will not become the next Dutch prime minister, in an unconventional and experimental “business government” arrangement. “The good news is that we have a negotiators’ agreement, but of course, this is only definitive when the parliamentary parties have also agreed,” Wilders told the Dutch press late in the afternoon.

Politicians refused to say who was in the running to be the next Dutch prime minister. Wilders said: “We have spoken about the prime minister today and we will come back to that discussion at a later moment.”…

It is highly unorthodox that the Dutch leader would not become prime minister after such an election victory for his party. The sticking point has been Wilders’ consistent stance that the Islam is not compatible with free societies. He is right. Sharia law does not align with the values of free societies; also, Wilders has vehemently opposed open-door immigration policies, as any responsible leader should do.

In light of the truth about Islam historically and at present, Wilders’ views are tough to oppose on a rational basis, that is, beyond labels, smears and name-calling. The pro-Hamas protests now plaguing Western societies are causing many to pause and think. But slamming Wilders is more about political correctness and the fear of enraging Muslims. African Christians know all too well, as do Middle Eastern Christians, Yazidis and other minorities, what Islamic conquest entails.

The West is now challenged with growing numbers of Muslims, as we see the activities of pro-Hamas activists and their supporters.

Unlike most politicians, Wilders has shown the Netherlands that he is genuinely interested in serving the interests of the people, and is determined to protect his country’s security, even at risk to his own personal safety and political aspirations.

When Wilders’s Freedom Party (PVV) won a surprise election victory in November, Reuters reported:

After 25 years in Dutch politics without holding office, Wilders was set to lead coalition government talks and has a good chance of becoming prime minister.

It was obvious, however, that talks would be tough. As they went on, Wilders also withdrew his own 2018 proposal to ban mosques and the Qur’an, in efforts to become more acceptable to possible coalition partners; yet as Robert Spencer has pointed out, “It is not necessary to ban mosques and the Qur’an in order to stop the advance of the jihad in a country; one must simply monitor those mosques and have no tolerance for those who would plot jihad violence or work to overthrow the secular state.”

But in February, coalition talks collapsed after Pieter Omtzigt, founder and leader of the center-right New Social Contract, walked out of negotiations. Many media pundits proclaimed that Wilders likely would not be able to form a coalition, thus leaving his coalition hopes and leadership chances in limbo.

The Guardian slammed Wilders amid the breakdown in talks, and included other factors aside from the issue of Islam as reasons for the collapse of negotiations:

Besides Wilders’s unconstitutional anti-Islam proposals, the far-right provocateur’s pledges included ending the free movement of EU workers, increasing drilling for oil and gas, putting 14-year-olds before adult criminal courts, and halting military aid to Ukraine.

But the fear of backlash from Muslims with Wilders at the helm was likely the biggest reason for Omtzigt’s sudden departure and refusal to continue the talks, since coalition governments are not new to disagreement among members on a range of issues, especially economics. But amid those disagreements, coalition partners generally don’t just walk out. The topic of Islam, however, is different. It has defined Wilders’ career. He has called for the recognition that “Islam is a violent ideology.” Let’s not forget in that connection that a UK government Minister, Mike Freer, abruptly quit due to Muslim death threats, and stated: “By the skin of my teeth I avoided being murdered.” Of course, his quitting puts Omtzigt’s in a different light.

Wilders responded to the breakdown in negotiations by stating: “The Netherlands wants this cabinet and now Pieter Omtzigt is throwing in the towel while we were still in discussions until today. I don’t understand it at all.”

Someone is pulling his strings. I wonder who?

Wilders has finally made substantial progress, not without some losses. The biggest threat facing the West now is the rising jihad threat, which has become much more aggressive since October 7. As a result, more citizens, leaders and media are awakening to varying degrees. This awakening may well relate to the news of a Dutch coalition government to include Wilders. Although he won’t be prime minister, it is to be celebrated that Wilders is still in the mix of a likely new coalition.

He will still be the leader of the biggest party in Parliament, and will probably take a ministerial position. So, he will still have significant influence. Consequently, there is hope the Netherlands will survive Islamization although it may get a little rough for awhile.