Climate Change > Gulf Stream could begin to collapse by 2060 - The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute

 

Dutch meteorological office also predicts

early Gulf Stream collapse

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) has joined Dutch climate researchers in warning that the Gulf Stream, a system of ocean currents crucial to global climate, could reach a tipping point and collapse much earlier than previously thought. The collapse would disrupt heat transport to the North Atlantic, producing hotter, drier summers and extremely cold winters in northwest Europe.

Previously, scientists believed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is a key component, would not fully weaken until after 2100.

KNMI’s latest research shows that in many climate models, the current already loses strength this century and could eventually stop. The risk is highest if CO2 emissions continue rising, but even with strong reductions in line with the Paris Agreement, the chance of collapse remains around 25 percent.

KNMI researcher Sybren Drijfhout said, “Recent observations in the regions where water sinks deep in the North Atlantic already show a decline over the past five to ten years. It may be a temporary dip, but it comes in line with model predictions.”

The AMOC transports warm, salty surface water from the tropics northward. In winter, this water cools near Greenland, sinks, and returns southward at depth. This “ocean conveyor belt” moderates Europe’s climate and affects global weather patterns.

Rising temperatures and increased rainfall reduce surface salinity in the North Atlantic, making water lighter and less likely to sink. “Once in motion, this process reinforces itself: the weaker the AMOC, the less salty water is transported north, the lighter the surface water, the less it sinks, and the weaker the AMOC becomes,” the study notes.

The Dutch study shows vertical water mixing in the North Atlantic could stop by mid-century — the tipping point that triggers full collapse. Once past this point, heat transport by the AMOC would drop dramatically, potentially to less than 20 percent of current levels, and in some models nearly to zero. Complete collapse could take 50 to 100 years.

Earlier research by Utrecht University similarly concluded that the Gulf Stream could reach a tipping point around 2060, much sooner than previously expected. René van Westen of Utrecht University told NOS, “What this study makes concrete is that we have a year for the start of the Gulf Stream collapse, around 2060. That is alarmingly closer than previously thought, possibly even within our lifetime.”

Van Westen emphasized that collapse is not inevitable. “Our study also shows that if you limit warming, the risk of the Gulf Stream collapsing becomes increasingly smaller. And you can even prevent it entirely, but then action must be taken.”

It would be interesting to see the effects of a weak or non-existent Gulf Stream on the Labrador Current. Would it still curve around Newfoundland and affect Nova Scotia and New England with fog and cooler temperatures? Without the Labrador Current, would hurricanes hit these coasts much harder?  Would they even hit these coasts?

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Climate Change > Air Pollution and Global Warming - New Study Surprises

 

New climate study revisits link between air pollution in East Asia and global warming

Scientist Bjorn Samset says discovery that clean-up may contribute to warming shows intricate nature of climate change and dynamics at play

Over the past decade, clean-up efforts in East Asia have reduced air pollution significantly, improving quality of life and health in the region. But they may also have inadvertently contributed to speeding up global warming, by removing particles that helped to cool the Earth.

Pollutants are made up of aerosols, liquid and solid particles suspended in the air. Although their removal is good for public health, this can lead to less cloud and less ground protection from the sun, and may have altered global climate and weather patterns – although how to quantify the impact is an ongoing debate among scientists.

An independent climate study published in Communications Earth & Environment journal on July 14 said it might have found a potential correlation between the two, going by the falling levels of air pollution in East Asia over the past decade.

“Polluted air may have been masking the full effects of global warming”, said Bjorn Samset, a senior researcher in climate and atmospheric sciences at the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo and a contributing author to the study.

The East Asian region – which includes China, Japan, North and South Korea and Mongolia – has undertaken major efforts to cut air pollution over the past decade. In China especially, efforts to reduce the emission of sulphur dioxide have brought about the world’s most significant improvements to air quality.

The amount of sulphur dioxide polluting the air in East Asia has fallen by an estimated 75 per cent since 2013, according to the study.

The researchers found that emission reduction in East Asia was likely to have contributed up to 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) of the observed 0.06 degree per decade average rate of global surface warming since 2010.

Global warming has accelerated since 2010, rising about 1.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels, a direct result of human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels.

At least, that's the theory! But if the numbers above are correct - 0.06 deg. C per decade, then the planet should warm about 0.45 deg. C by the end of the century.

Is that really something to get hysterical about? Less than half of one degree in 75 years!

“East Asian aerosol clean-up is thus likely a key contributor to recent global warming acceleration and to Pacific warming trends,” the study said.

Samset said that before the study, the researchers did not anticipate how neatly the observed drop in aerosol levels would fit with the acceleration of warming. Their discovery showed the intricate nature of climate change, and how many dynamics were at play.

“It’s quite a complex picture to try and disentangle,” he said.

According to the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the reduction of aerosols in China is a crucial part of the global improvement in air quality, and the weakening of the “umbrella effect” has rendered the previously masked greenhouse effect more apparent.

“We must recognise that the primary reason global warming has become so severe is the substantial increase in greenhouse gases worldwide, not the reduction of aerosols”, CAS said in an article posted to its social media account on Tuesday.

Responding to the research paper, it said: “The significance of the study is not to criticise the efforts of developing countries in improving air quality, but to provide an opportunity for us to gain a deeper understanding of the current global warming issue.”

Study leader Samset similarly said the reduction in pollutants was not the problem.

“No one has ever criticised anyone for cleaning up air pollution,” he said. “This is an unavoidable side effect of doing what, in principle, we should have done all along, which is: not emit pollution.”

Although this temperature increase appears minute, Jimmy Fung, a professor in the division of environment and sustainability at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said that with every 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature, the Earth’s atmosphere held an extra 7 per cent of moisture, which could alter global rain and weather patterns.

Floods in the fall of 2021 from devastating rainfalls in British Columbia were attributed to global warming. But satellite photos from that 'atmospheric river' reveal it's 'headwaters' were over China. It happened that a few weeks before, China reopened dozens of coal-fired plants to end rolling blackouts as the country began recovering from Covid's slowdown of their economy.

IMHO, the record rainfalls in British Columbia came not from global warming, but from the unprecedented air pollution in China, mostly from increased coal burning, combined with La Nina.

“When the pattern slightly changes, those places that used to have rain may not have rain, and the places that used to not have rain will have rain,” Fung said, pointing to more recent extreme weather events.

“Because we are cleaning up the air more, we should pay more attention to cutting our [carbon dioxide] even more aggressively,” he added, referring to the key greenhouse gas.

According to the study, the impact of further emission reductions in East Asia on global warming rates “is likely to be less significant,” since total emissions have already been substantially reduced and the pace of emission decline is expected to slow.

The East Asian region has undertaken major efforts to cut air pollution over the past decade. Photo: VCG via Getty Images

Samset said the effect of aerosol emissions in Europe, India, China and Africa was different to each other, relative to their distinct features.

“Global temperature is more sensitive to air pollution from East Asia than air pollution from South Asia,” he said.

This was explained by the directions in which aerosols travelled. From East Asia, wind currents carry aerosols to the Pacific Ocean where there is substantial cloud cover. There, they increase already high levels of moisture in the air, leading to more rainfall and harsher weather patterns.

Air pollutants from India, however, travel towards the Persian Gulf and Horn of Africa, where their cooling effect has much less impact.

Samset said that although India still had more air pollution, its efforts to reduce this would not substantially affect global temperatures.

Cleaner air across the globe remained a clear priority, he asserted.

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Climate Change > Rachel Marsden gets a little hot under the collar about climate hysteria in France

 

Global-warming brainwashing has the French sweating

without air conditioning

Apparently, cranking up the A/C in near-40-degree heat is now “cheating”

and killing the environment

By Rachel Marsden, a columnist, political strategist, and host of independently produced talk-shows in French and English.

rachelmarsden.com

Parisians and tourists cool off at the Trocadero fountain in Paris, France, on July 1, 2025. ©  Jerome Gilles / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Paris was melting last week, flirting with 40°C and zero chill. Apparently, the moment was ripe for an epiphany.

I was in an Uber, as one does when public transport becomes a slow cooker. I always enjoy chatting with the driver – usually Algerian or Moroccan. We got to talking about our lives and what led us to France. At one point he looked at me and said, “No husband, no kids, and you have air conditioning! You’re totally cheating at life!”

“Cheating,” huh? Interesting word choice. So opting out of the standard life script is breaking the rules? But whose rules? The ones written by the establishment – whichever power structure has successfully colonized your brain.

I was fortunate to have been raised by parents who believed in free thought, not groupthink, and who told me that you should be able to do anything you want with your life as long as you’re not harming others. Which is a long way of saying that if I want to crank the A/C during a heatwave in my own home, it’s nobody’s business. Especially not that of some guy in the front seat of a Peugeot who thinks that I’ve short-circuited the Matrix.

Read more

 Will the French regime go Soviet?

But the fact that he grouped air conditioning with not having kids or a man says a lot. It’s not just cultural expectations, but also the deep programming of state-sanctioned virtue that has come to dominate cultural norms. And in France, one of the strangest markers of virtue is rejecting modern cooling technology.

The week was so blisteringly hot that the French government anticipated shutting down 1,350 schools so kids could sweat it out at home instead of in class.

Even the local public swimming pool had to close – the one place that usually offers relief – because the deck hit 50°C and the water was bathtub temperature.

Instead, the French spent the day playing what I call the “Blinds and Windows Game.” Open everything in the morning. Close it all when the heat starts. Pull the blinds down just right so the sun hits the metal outside instead of the window glass. I opted out. I’ve got better things to do than play around with my window coverings. So I turned on the air conditioning.

My neighbors were not fans. I’ve had a mob of French residents of my building bang on my door demanding that I turn it off. Why? Because they spotted the portable A/C exhaust tubes poking out my window. Having ignored them, I later received a formal letter with instructions on when I was allowed to use it. According to them, that would only be when they collectively decide that the temperature justifies it – and only during certain hours. “For the well being of everyone,” they wrote, before launching into a sermon about how A/C is bad for the environment and ruins it for everyone else.

Give me a break. This is a country powered by decarbonized nuclear energy, so the climate change excuse doesn’t work here. But even without that, they invent new reasons: It causes “thermal shock.” It gives you neck spasms. It’s “unnatural air.” It’ll make you sick...

Read more

 French investigators raid HQ of biggest opposition party

Like the outdated idea that every woman should anchor her existence around a husband and kids, the anti-A/C dogma should stop where logic and personal freedom begin. No, gyms shouldn’t be set to 26°C in the summer because some guy wants to do five squats and scroll on his phone without feeling “chilly” during a heatwave. You shouldn’t be sweating through your clothes at the movies. And hospitals and nursing homes shouldn’t feel like a slow death in a convection oven.

But the moment far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen suggested a “grand plan for air conditioning” a few days ago, the narrative defenders of the establishment status quo promptly lost it.

“Air conditioning saves lives. Letting people die in hospitals, or letting children or vulnerable people suffer because there is no air conditioning, is completely absurd,” Le Pen said in the National Assembly.

The opposition Ecologists’ national secretary Marine Tondelier shot back that “air conditioning won’t suffice.” Guess they’re still hoping to lower the Earth’s thermostat manually. Since they’re clearly failing, despite all the lifestyle sacrifices they’ve extracted from us, maybe we could at least normalize cooling the rooms we actually live in.

Apparently not. France’s Ecological Transition Minister, Agnès Pannier-Runacher of Macron’s Renaissance party, said that it was okay to “air condition vulnerable people” but “not everywhere.” Because “global warming.”

Oh, please. Go yell at your German Green pals from the last coalition government, that had to fire up coal plants that dump filth into Europe’s air, all because their sacred renewables can’t carry the load.

Read more

 Paris says Le Pen’s AC plan full of hot air – Politico

Meanwhile, France Unbowed – the left-wing party – whined that “wealthy households are increasingly choosing air conditioning and installing it as they see fit.” And…we’re back to that whole “cheating” mantra again. Can’t be letting rich people cheat, now!  As if everyone who has a portable A/C unit in their bedroom is also cooling off in champagne baths.

Portable A/C units cost a few hundred euros. What actually makes them expensive are things like the EU’s dumb carbon credit scheme. Also, cutting off cheap Russian gas didn’t help, especially since EU electricity prices are based on the most expensive fuel needed to generate it, as Le Monde has pointed out.

It took a populist uprising in the 1960s and 70s for women to escape a system that once required a husband’s permission just to open a bank account. More recently, populism clawed back some sanity from endless wars, uncontrolled migration, and technocratic tyranny disguised as “democracy.”

It’s going to take another wave of that same rebellious spirit to end the delusion that sweating through 40-degree heat is some noble sacrifice. Using air conditioning isn’t cheating – forcing everyone else to suffer with you in your stiflingly hot ideological straitjacket is.

If cranking the heat in winter is a right, then staying cool in July shouldn’t feel like joining the Resistance. But until things change, I’ll just keep leading the underground. Vive la clim’!