Earth's Population hits 8 billion, India may have overtaken China as most populous country

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U.N. report: India overtakes China as most populous country

By A.L. Lee

Massive crowds jostle through the Ranganathan Street market in Chennai, India. Population estimates published Wednesday by the United Nations show India has likely surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world. File Photo by Idrees Mohammed/EPA-EFE

April 19 (UPI) -- India has likely surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world, according to new estimates released Wednesday by the United Nations.

The State of World Population Report, 2023, published by the U.N. Population Fund, also affirmed the total number of people on Earth eclipsed 8 billion in November 2022.

The report comes three months after China announced its population had declined for the first time in six decades as deaths outpaced births last year.

The latest data from UNFPA estimates India's population stood at 1.4286 billion, while China's population was slightly lower at 1.4257 billion -- giving India a 2.9 million edge, although there has been no official census in India since 2011.

Together, the population of China and India equates to more than a third of the world's total.

Fertility rates are on the decline throughout Asia, and as a result, China was expected to see a considerable drop in its population by 2024, the report said.

In India, birth rates fell from 5.7 per woman in 1950 to 2.2 births per woman in 2022.

In 2016, Beijing reversed its one-child policy after more than three decades and began offering incentives for families to have two or more kids. The government raised the limit to three children in 2021 after China's birth rate decreased to its lowest level since 1978.

There were 10.41 million deaths last year, marking the first time China's population has declined since 1961 after a three-year famine killed tens of millions of people.

In January, China reported close to 60,000 people had died from COVID-19 since early December after ending three years of anti-virus measures.

The U.N. report does not include population estimates for Hong Kong and Macau, two of China's special administrative regions, and it also omits any density readings on Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway republic -- a claim that continues to fan tensions with the United States.

A majority of India's citizens were anxious that the population was too high and would eventually lead to economic problems for the country, according to a survey commissioned by the UNFPA.

Demographers conducting the study noted that overall population growth had slowed over many decades to reach its most sluggish expansion since 1950.

Projections show that much of the global population is expected to be on the older side. The share of the global population above age 65 is expected to reach 16% in 2050, which will be more than twice the number of children under age 5.

As China's population shrinks and life expectancy increases, nearly a third of its population could be over age 60 by 2035, according to projections. That means the world's second-largest economy, behind the United States, will no longer have enough people of working age to support the country's manufacturing sector, economic experts said.

A study released earlier this month by the World Health Organization says 1 in 6 people worldwide experience infertility at some point in their lifetime, highlighting the need for affordable, quality fertility care and calling the ability to have a child an "essential human right."

The report also provides data on women's reproductive rights and urges governments around the world to adopt policies that promote fertility and women's health.

"Women's bodies should not be held captive to population targets," says UNFPA Executive Director Dr. Natalia Kanem. "To build thriving and inclusive societies, regardless of population size, we must radically rethink how we talk about and plan for population change."

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‘Breaking Point’: Puerto Rico Files for Historic $70bn Bankruptcy

© Alvin Baez / Reuters

The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is seeking the largest municipal bankruptcy filing in US history, after failed negotiations with creditors over its $70 billion debt crisis. That’s more than four times the debt Detroit collapsed under.

On Wednesday, the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico announced they had moved to place the US territory into federal bankruptcy court, making it the largest entity of the US government to seek refuge from creditors in the courts in history. 

Chairman of the Oversight Board José Carrión said the filing was made to “provide a method for the Commonwealth and its instrumentalities to achieve fiscal responsibility and access to the capital markets,” according to a press release.

US territories are barred from filing for a traditional bankruptcy like most US cities or states. Last year, Congress approved the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) to address the impending financial crisis Puerto Rico was already facing.

Under the PROMESA bill, the oversight board and the Title III process were created. Title III, which is similar to the Chapter 9 bankruptcy, allows Puerto Rico and other US territories to restructure their debt under the supervision of a federal judge.

The announcement came a day after major creditors sued Puerto Rico over defaults to its bonds. The Commonwealth held several meetings with creditor representatives to come to an agreement. However, on Monday at midnight, a temporary court stay that protected Puerto Rico from lawsuits expired and negotiations were ended.

“We have sustained our position to negotiate in good faith, but before the current scenario, we choose to protect our people,” Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rossello said in a tweet Wednesday.

Rossello sent a letter to the Financial Oversight and Management Board on Tuesday, saying he hopes the Title III proceedings will “accelerate the negotiation process, leading to as much creditor consensus where possible and achieving where necessary a prompt and efficient judicial resolution of any issues or disputes.” 

Ted Hampton, an analyst at Moody’s Investor Service, says the bankruptcy process is a “positive step.”

"Although a court proceeding will take considerable time and likely involve losses for all Puerto Rico bondholders, it will be an orderly process," Hampton says. 

On Wednesday, the oversight board declared the Commonwealth was “unable to provide its citizens with effective services,” according to court filings obtained by The Deal. 

That document shows Puerto Rico’s 10-year recession has led them to declare a “fiscal and socioeconomic crisis without precedent” in its history. Since 2007, the Commonwealth said it has seen a 14 percent decline in gross national product, a 23 percent decrease in employed persons and a 10 percent drop in population.

According to the US Census Bureau, 46 percent of Puerto Rico’s residents live below federal poverty levels, compared to the national average of 14 percent and 36 percent in Detroit. 

Puerto Rico has approximately $74 billion of bond debt and $48 billion of unfunded pension liabilities. The previous largest public bankruptcy in the US was set by Detroit in 2013 when it declared a total of $18 billion of bond debt and retirement obligations.

“The result is that Puerto Rico can no longer fully pay its debt and pay for government services. Nor can Puerto Rico refinance its debt—it no longer has access to the capital markets,” the oversight board said in the court filing. “In short, Puerto Rico’s crisis has reached a breaking point.”

Puerto Rico’s current fiscal plan sets aside $800 million a year for debt payments, however, it is only a fraction of the $35 billion it owes in interest in payments over the next 10 years. The cost of fully paying off their debt would be around $3.5 billion a year.