Climate Change > Could Gulf Stream Diminish or Disappear altogether making Northwest Europe Cooler? Or would it?

 

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New climate change scenario looks at colder weather for the Netherlands

The Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management is quietly investigating a different climate change scenario, in which the weather in the Netherlands might become colder instead of warmer. That has to do with possible changes in the Atlantic Gulf Stream. Experts from TU Delft, the knowledge institute Deltares, and the meteorological institute KNMI are currently mapping out what a cooler climate could mean for the country, Nieuwsuur reported.

“With the knowledge we have now, the most likely scenario is still that it will become warmer. However, this is a new insight that we cannot ignore,” said Delta Commissioner Co Verdaas, who leads the group of experts.

Planet Earth is warming up due to greenhouse gas emissions, which means higher temperatures. It has been known for years that global warming will affect the Atlantic Gulf Stream, with a tiny chance that it will come to a standstill. But in recent years, new climate models have started to show that scenario. Measurements in the sea indicate that the Gulf Stream is already weakening.

The Atlantic Gulf Stream is part of a global system of ocean currents that influence the temperature on land. This system, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), transports warm water from the oceans around the equator to northwestern Europe. That is why the Netherlands, for example, has a much milder climate than Canada, which is located at the same latitude.

If the AMOC comes to a standstill, which the latest models suggest is a possibility, if not a foregone conclusion, it would lead to a radically different climate in the Netherlands and northwestern Europe. More drought, heavier storms, declining agricultural yields, and an even higher rise in sea level are on the cards. The first consequences could be noticeable within the next two decades. It will also change rain patterns elsewhere in the world, causing havoc with food chains, among other things.

“We don’t know for sure whether it will happen, that’s true,” KNMI oceanographer Sybren Drijfhout, who has been studying the Gulf Stream for 30 years, told the program. “We are concerned because five years ago, we thought this was an unlikely disaster scenario. But with the latest climate models, we suddenly see that the chance is really a lot greater.”

It is unclear whether the Gulf Stream shutdown can be prevented, Drijfhout said. “But with more CO2 and greenhouse gases, the chance of this scenario happening increases.”

At least, that's how it works in your computer models, which are 99% fantasy. Historically, increased CO2 levels follow increased temperatures by centuries, not the other way about.

However, if the Atlantic Gulf Stream disappeared, a significant part of the North Atlantic would be cooler, as well as Northwest Europe. This might well lower the global temperature considerably, unless the mid-Atlantic heated up considerably, causing colossal hurricanes the likes of which we can't even imagine.
On the other hand, if the mid-Atlantic heated up and the North Atlantic cooled, would it not then kickstart the Gulf Stream again? Is there a cycle to the Gulf Stream? Is a diminished Gulf Stream directly related to cold phases in Northern Europe.

GROK:  The Gulf Stream, a powerful Atlantic Ocean current, plays a significant role in regulating climate, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. It transports warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to the North Atlantic, influencing weather patterns and maintaining milder climates in Western Europe. Its interaction with climate phases—distinct periods or patterns in climate variability—can be seen through several key climate phenomena. Below, I explore the relationship between the Gulf Stream and major climate phases, focusing on mechanisms, impacts, and potential connections.

1. Climate Phases and the Gulf Stream

Climate phases refer to recurring patterns or oscillations in the Earth's climate system, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and others. These phases involve shifts in atmospheric and oceanic conditions that can influence or be influenced by the Gulf Stream.

a. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Description: The NAO is a weather phenomenon driven by pressure differences between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It has positive (strong pressure difference) and negative (weak pressure difference) phases, affecting winds, storms, and temperatures across the Atlantic.

Relation to Gulf Stream:

Positive NAO Phase: Strong westerly winds enhance the Gulf Stream's flow, pushing warmer water northward. This amplifies heat transport to Europe, leading to milder winters in Northern Europe.

Negative NAO Phase: Weaker winds can slow the Gulf Stream, reducing heat transport and contributing to cooler winters in Europe.

Mechanism: The NAO influences wind patterns that drive surface currents, including the Gulf Stream. Changes in wind stress alter the strength and position of the current, impacting heat distribution.

Impact: Variations in the NAO can cause short-term (seasonal to decadal) fluctuations in the Gulf Stream's strength, affecting regional climates. For example, a prolonged positive NAO phase may enhance warming in Scandinavia, while a negative phase could lead to colder conditions.

b. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

Description: The AMO is a long-term (60–80 years) oscillation in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic, with warm and cool phases.

Relation to Gulf Stream:

Warm AMO Phase: Associated with a stronger Gulf Stream and increased heat transport to the North Atlantic. This phase correlates with warmer SSTs, potentially intensifying hurricanes and warming Europe.

Cool AMO Phase: A weaker Gulf Stream may reduce heat transport, leading to cooler SSTs and milder climate impacts.

Mechanism: The AMO is linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is a surface component. Variations in AMOC strength directly affect the Gulf Stream's flow and heat transport.

Impact: The AMO influences decadal climate variability. For instance, the warm AMO phase in the late 20th century (1995–present) has been linked to stronger Gulf Stream activity and warmer European climates.

Other studies are ongoing that should provide a more detailed picture of the consequences of the Gulf Stream shutting down. These publications are expected in the coming months.