Another Doomsday Prediction on Global Warming

El Niño effect: Global temperatures hit record high for 8th month in a row

© Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit, NASA Johnson Space Center.


Last month was the hottest May on file making it the eighth consecutive month to smash world temperature records.

The global temperature for May was 1.67 °F (0.93 °C) warmer than the May base period (from 1951 to 1980), according to data compiled by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).

This follows a warmer than usual April, which was 1.96 °F (1.09 °C) hotter than mean temperatures from 1951 to 1980.

Global temperature records have now been broken for eight straight months since the pattern began in October 2015. The world is on track to call 2016 its hottest year yet.

Climate scientist and director of GISS, Gavin Schmidt says there is a greater than 99 percent probability that 2016 will break all previous heat records.

The string of record-breaking months is a consequence of El Niño - a natural phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years through unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

Gavin Schmidt @ClimateOfGavin
With Apr update, 2016 still > 99% likely to be a new record (assuming historical ytd/ann patterns valid).

The most recent El Niño event took place in the eastern tropical Pacific from late 2015 to early 2016 and was considered “very strong.”

Strongest ever, in fact.

The weather event brought excessive rains and exacerbated drought in the Horn of Africa and in Southern Africa, sparking increased food insecurity according to the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. It also prompted the spread of disease, including cholera.


© Feisal Omar / Reuters

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology declared El Niño finished on May 24. However, the effects of the event drag on throughout the year because of a lag in the global response to tropical disturbances, according to Schmidt.

NASA expects the current trend to subside shortly though and says it’s unlikely that the next few months will be ‘chart-toppers’.

Climate change has been raising the planet’s temperature and GISS scientist Reto Ruedy estimates that global warming will catch up with the El Niño 2015 spike in less than 15 years.

This should be a good measure by which to determine the validity of GISS temperature forecasts. As I identified in Global Warming - Getting Off the Fence, temperature increases are subject to 30 year cycles and we are in the midst of a 30 year period of little or no increase in the global temperature. 

For global warming to catch up to the temperatures recorded in this El Nino event in 15 years, it would have to break a pattern that has been very consistent for the past 130 years. Good luck with that Reto Reudy.

NASA, IPCC Needlessly Creating Panic About Global Warming

It has become my position that the global warming phenomenon is severely over-hyped, in particular, man's responsibility for it. 

We have reported that the IPCC predicted a 1.0 degree C rise in the global temperature between 1990 and 2025. 

Up to this winter's El Nino event (which is an outlier) the global temperature had risen only about 0.2 deg from 1990. 

That means the temperature has to rise by 0.8 deg. in the next 9 years which is precisely the rise in the global temperature since 1880 - 135 years. It would be astonishing to see a temperature rise equal to the 135 year rise in just 9 years. 

In fact, the 30 year cycle I identified of temperatures climbing then holding steady would indicate that there will be no significant temperature rise between about 2000 and 2030. This has been born-out as there has been no real temperature rise since 1998.

Now here is another near hysterical prediction by arguably the world's number one climate expert. NASA's James Hanson was quoted in the Chicago Tribune in 1988 saying that the mid-west US would suffer from very high temperatures and drought in the next decade and beyond. 

What actually happened?

Obviously the number of very hot days in the mid-west decreased over the next 25 years or so.

But what about precipitation, was he right on that?

It's obvious, at first glance, that precipitation has increased since the 1930s. Below normal precipitation is indicated by the brown bars, above normal by the green bars. You don't even have to look at the blue trend line to see the obvious.

In spite of being out to lunch on their predictions, NASA and the IPCC continue to scare gullible public and governments alike with frightening scenarios in time frames that are completely unjustifiable. Neither are they justified in blaming anthropomorphic pollution for the entire rise in global temperature. If we have contributed to the rise in temperature, I suspect that it is so infinitesimal an increment that it is beyond our capability to measure. 

So now the question is, is their science that bad, or are they intentionally attempting to create panic?