China's dwindling population

 

China’s marriages fell 7.5% in the first half of 2026. What does it spell for the economy?

Fewer weddings, rising divorces and plunging birth rates risk exacerbating the fallout from a rapidly ageing population

Sherry Wangin Beijing, South China Morning Post

Published: 3:00pm, 13 Aug 2026Updated: 6:46pm, 13 Aug 2026

China’s marriage registrations fell 7.5 per cent year on year in the first half of 2026, underscoring the demographic challenges authorities face as they step up efforts to encourage nuptials and childbearing.

Nearly 3.28 million couples in China tied the knot between January and June, down 264,000 from the same period last year, according to data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs on Wednesday.

Divorce registrations also rose 3.9 per cent to 1.38 million.

Marriage registrations are closely watched in China as they typically serve as a strong indicator of birth trends in the following year, with extramarital births still considered taboo in many parts of the country.

Last year, births fell to a record low of 7.92 million, down by about 10 million from the 2016 peak, as the country’s population declined for a fourth consecutive year.

In that time, India has taken over as the most populated country in the world. India is approaching 1.5 billion people while China's population is dropping toward 1.4 billion. The next most populated country is the USA with one quarter of China's population.

The nation’s shrinking and rapidly ageing population risks complicating Beijing’s efforts to sustain economic growth. Economists and demographers warn that a smaller workforce and fewer workers supporting retirees could weigh on productivity, raise pension and healthcare costs and prolong weakness in domestic demand.

Since last year, local governments have rolled out a range of policies to encourage marriage and reduce the financial burden of raising children, including extended marriage leave, cash rewards, consumption vouchers and fewer restrictions on where couples can tie the knot.

Those efforts helped drive an increase in marriage registrations to 6.76 million last year, but the latest decline suggests that rebound could be hard to sustain.

On Wednesday, demographer He Yafu wrote in an article published on social media that total marriage registrations in 2026 could fall to between 5.97 million and 6.37 million, and called for further policy support to curb demographic decline.

In an article published on Thursday, Chinese economist Ren Zeping attributed the persistent decline in marriages to high wedding and child-rearing costs, shifting mindsets among younger generations who view marriage as a constraint, improved pension and social security networks, and alternative emotional outlets like gaming and pets.

To counter the trend, Ren urged Beijing to lower housing, education and healthcare burdens, safeguard female employment rights and curb gaming addiction, describing children as “the new infrastructure” vital for China’s future.

Local authorities continue to provide financial incentives for childbirth and marriage. In July, a village in Foshan, South China’s Guangdong province, passed a measure offering newlyweds a 2,500 yuan (US$370) bonus, 3,000 yuan per newborn and preschool tuition subsidies, according to a village statement.

Similarly, Mingxi county in the eastern province of Fujian began offering a one-off 3,000 yuan cash reward to eligible newlyweds last month, along with birth subsidies ranging from 2,000 to 5,000 yuan per child, according to a local broadcaster.

China's falling birth rate > What's causing it?

 

Thousands of Chinese kindergartens close as

falling birth rate takes its toll

Last year saw the number of kindergartens fall by over 5 per cent

while the number of children enrolling dropped by more than 11 per cent

Luna Sunin Beijing, South China Morning Post

Published: 3:20pm, 27 Oct 2024Updated: 5:14pm, 27 Oct 2024

The number of kindergartens in China dropped by more than 5 per cent last year in the latest indicator of the country’s falling birthrate.

In 2023 the number of kindergartens fell by 14,808 to 274,400 – the second consecutive annual decline – according to an annual report by the Ministry of Education.

Meanwhile, the number of children enrolled in kindergarten declined for a third consecutive year – dropping by 11.55 per cent, or 5.35 million, last year to 40.9 million, according to the report.

The number of primary schools also dropped by 5,645 to 143,500 in 2023, a 3.8 per cent fall.

The decline reflects a broader demographic shift in China – where both birth rates and total population continue to dwindle – posing a serious threat to future economic growth, which is already slowing.

Last year, China’s population dropped for the second year in a row, to 1.4 billion, a decline of over 2 million. Only 9 million births were reported in China in 2023, the lowest figure since records started in 1949.

The China Population and Development Research Centre has calculated that the country’s fertility rate dropped to 1.09 in 2022, and demographers estimated that it fell below 1.0 last year, although there is no official figure available.

The fertility rate refers to the average number of children born to each woman, while a replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is widely accepted as the necessary rate for a country’s population to remain constant.

In Shanghai, one of China’s wealthiest cities, the total fertility rate dipped to 0.6 in 2023, according to the local authorities.

“Meanwhile, the burden of elder care is intensifying, all amid economic stagnation,” said He Yafu, an independent demographer based in Guangdong province.

“Kindergarten operators need to adjust strategically to meet new challenges, such as expanding early childhood education to include children under three and establishing an integrated care-education system.”

National Health Commission data from 2021 showed that more than 30 per cent of Chinese families with infants and toddlers in China need child care, but only 5.5 per cent have enrolled their children in nurseries or pre-kindergartens.

An increasing number of kindergartens have been converted into care centres for senior citizens, and many of their staff members have switched jobs to care for the elderly.

Chinese families are increasingly reluctant to give birth, deterred by hefty housing and child-rearing costs, cut-throat competition for good schools and universities and jobs as well as the uncertain economic and political outlet.

A recent survey of women of childbearing age in the eastern city of Ningbo found that nearly half of single, childless women expressed a preference for having only one child, over a third did not want any children, 15 per cent wanted two, and less than 1 per cent said they wanted more children.

It also found that 56 per cent of those questioned regarded marriage as optional rather than essential and nearly 6 per cent saw no need to get married at all.

With birthrates below replacement levels, the UK's population increases by 7% in 11 years

 

UK population rose by over 4 million since 2011

due in large part to unvetted mass migration

MAR 30, 2024 8:30 AM BY CHRISTINE DOUGLASS-WILLIAMS

The sharp rise in Britain’s population is due to mass migration, much of which is illegal and unvetted, mostly from Africa and the Middle East.

The country has just seen an “all time record” in illegal migrant crossings of the English Channel, despite the promises and assurances of the Rishi Sunak government that it would end this phenomenon.

Britain’s downfall is imminent, given myriad reports about the exhorbitant costs of housing these illegals — a significant number of whom are unemployed years after entering the country. Then there are the rising crime rates attributed to the new arrivals (which is also reflected in other countries, such as Sweden, Germany and France), and the risk of jihad attacks.

UK Population Rose by More Than 4 Million Since 2011

to Record 67.6 Million Amid Mass Migration

by Kurt Zindulka, Breitbart, March 28, 2024:

The population of the United Kingdom rose by nearly seven per cent between 2011 and 2022 to an estimated 67.6 million, an increase of over four million people mostly as a result of the mass migration policies of the supposedly Conservative government.

Population figures released on Tuesday from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the first snapshot of the country’s size since the 2021 Census, found that the population of the UK rose by 6.7 per cent to an estimated 67,596,281 people by mid-2022 from just a little over a decade prior in mid-2011.

England saw the largest increase of the four UK nations, jumping by 7.5 per cent over the time period, or an increase of four million people, the ONS said.

This was followed by a 5.3 per cent rise seen in Northern Ireland, equivalent to 96,225 people, Scotland with a 2.8 per cent increase (147,000 people), and a 2.2 per cent rise (67,882 people) seen in Wales.

The release of the data came after the ONS predicted that the population would reach 70 million people within the next two years and that the country is on pace to see a 10 per cent rise by 2036 to almost 74 million people.

The change was mostly driven by foreign migration as opposed to internal growth, with the birth rate having been below replacement levels….

 

Earth's Population hits 8 billion, India may have overtaken China as most populous country

..

U.N. report: India overtakes China as most populous country

By A.L. Lee

Massive crowds jostle through the Ranganathan Street market in Chennai, India. Population estimates published Wednesday by the United Nations show India has likely surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world. File Photo by Idrees Mohammed/EPA-EFE

April 19 (UPI) -- India has likely surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world, according to new estimates released Wednesday by the United Nations.

The State of World Population Report, 2023, published by the U.N. Population Fund, also affirmed the total number of people on Earth eclipsed 8 billion in November 2022.

The report comes three months after China announced its population had declined for the first time in six decades as deaths outpaced births last year.

The latest data from UNFPA estimates India's population stood at 1.4286 billion, while China's population was slightly lower at 1.4257 billion -- giving India a 2.9 million edge, although there has been no official census in India since 2011.

Together, the population of China and India equates to more than a third of the world's total.

Fertility rates are on the decline throughout Asia, and as a result, China was expected to see a considerable drop in its population by 2024, the report said.

In India, birth rates fell from 5.7 per woman in 1950 to 2.2 births per woman in 2022.

In 2016, Beijing reversed its one-child policy after more than three decades and began offering incentives for families to have two or more kids. The government raised the limit to three children in 2021 after China's birth rate decreased to its lowest level since 1978.

There were 10.41 million deaths last year, marking the first time China's population has declined since 1961 after a three-year famine killed tens of millions of people.

In January, China reported close to 60,000 people had died from COVID-19 since early December after ending three years of anti-virus measures.

The U.N. report does not include population estimates for Hong Kong and Macau, two of China's special administrative regions, and it also omits any density readings on Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway republic -- a claim that continues to fan tensions with the United States.

A majority of India's citizens were anxious that the population was too high and would eventually lead to economic problems for the country, according to a survey commissioned by the UNFPA.

Demographers conducting the study noted that overall population growth had slowed over many decades to reach its most sluggish expansion since 1950.

Projections show that much of the global population is expected to be on the older side. The share of the global population above age 65 is expected to reach 16% in 2050, which will be more than twice the number of children under age 5.

As China's population shrinks and life expectancy increases, nearly a third of its population could be over age 60 by 2035, according to projections. That means the world's second-largest economy, behind the United States, will no longer have enough people of working age to support the country's manufacturing sector, economic experts said.

A study released earlier this month by the World Health Organization says 1 in 6 people worldwide experience infertility at some point in their lifetime, highlighting the need for affordable, quality fertility care and calling the ability to have a child an "essential human right."

The report also provides data on women's reproductive rights and urges governments around the world to adopt policies that promote fertility and women's health.

"Women's bodies should not be held captive to population targets," says UNFPA Executive Director Dr. Natalia Kanem. "To build thriving and inclusive societies, regardless of population size, we must radically rethink how we talk about and plan for population change."

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