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Showing posts with label Czechia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Czechia. Show all posts

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Politics in Europe > Change in Government in Czechia; Czech voters rejected Brussels dogma; Starmer cuts Farage's security detail by 75% - astonishing!

 

The EU would have been happier if Babis had won an outright majority, but forming a coalition with far-right parties will stymie any advances by the EU in Czechia. 


Pro-EU Czech PM concedes election defeat

The ANO (YES) movement, led by Andrej Babis, has won about 35% of the parliamentary vote
Pro-EU Czech PM concedes election defeat











The right-wing party of agricultural tycoon Andrej Babis, branded the ‘Czech Trump’ by local media, has come out ahead in the Czech general election with 97% of the vote counted, according to official results.

The ANO movement is now set to replace the current center-right cabinet led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala. He has already congratulated Babis, conceding defeat and stating the outcome of the vote must be respected.

Speaking to reporters after his victory became evident, Babis once again rejected longstanding accusations of being anti-EU and insisted he merely wants to “save” the bloc. 

“We want to save Europe... and we are clearly pro-European and pro-NATO,” Babis told Reuters. 

ANO will seek a one-party cabinet but will have to enter talks with two minor parties to secure an outright majority, Babis said. One of the parties is believed to be the far-right SPD, which has long been considered a potential coalition partner.

“We went into the election with the aim of ending the government of Petr Fiala and support even for a minority cabinet of ANO is important for us and it would meet the target we had for this election,” SPD deputy chairman Radim Fiala said in a televised speech. In contrast to ANO, his party maintains an explicit anti-EU and anti-NATO stance.

Another potential coalition partner is the Motorists, who strongly oppose the EU’s environmental policies. They and the SPD received nearly 7% and 8% of the vote respectively, and joining forces with ANO would be sufficient to secure a majority.

During his campaign, Babis repeatedly criticized the EU’s handling of immigration and the Green Deal, as well as opposing EU membership for Ukraine. He also pledged to drastically cut aid for Kiev, promising more domestic spending instead. Babis signaled he would end the so-called ‘Czech initiative’ project, dedicated to supplying ammunition to Ukraine, calling the scheme overpriced.



It seems the threads that are holding the EU together are beginning to fray.


Czech voters chose real nationalism over Brussels dogma

Andrej Babis’s win shows the people want their real concerns addressed, and attempts to smear him as “pro-Russian” are nothing but desperation
Czech voters chose real nationalism over Brussels dogma











The Czech parliamentary election of October 2025 did not just deliver a victory for Andrej Babiš’s ANO party. It sent a message reverberating far beyond Prague: people are growing weary of Brussels’s single-minded insistence on unconditional support for Ukraine, even at the expense of their own citizens’ well-being.

The result reflects a deep and widespread demand for politics rooted in national interests, rather than dictated by distant EU institutions.

For years, European voters have been told that there is no alternative to the prevailing orthodoxy: fund and arm Ukraine indefinitely, absorb the costs without question, and accept austerity at home as the necessary price of defending the continent. Governments across the bloc have repeated this mantra with little patience for dissent. In Prague, however, ordinary people felt the pinch of rising prices, shrinking disposable income, and a government that seemed more attentive to foreign policy headlines than to the economic pain at home.

Babiš recognized this disillusionment and offered a clear alternative. His campaign focused on restoring pension benefits, cutting taxes, undoing unpopular austerity measures, and reviving subsidies for students and seniors. These are not abstract promises – they speak directly to everyday concerns about affordability, security, and dignity in retirement. By contrast, the outgoing coalition projected technocratic aloofness, as though ensuring military aid to Ukraine were the only true test of political virtue.

Critics, especially in Brussels and sympathetic media, immediately rushed to accuse Babiš of being “pro-Russian.” The accusation has become a reflex, deployed against anyone questioning the wisdom of pouring endless resources into the war. Yet the label is both lazy and misleading. ANO has not proposed leaving NATO, nor breaking with the EU. Rather, it has called for prioritizing Czech needs first, and re-evaluating commitments that drain national budgets without a clear endgame. Is that really “pro-Russian”? Or is it simply responsible governance in a democracy where leaders are accountable to their voters?

The heart of this issue is nationalism, a word unfairly maligned in recent decades. Nationalism in the healthy sense means ensuring that political decisions serve the people who live, work, and pay taxes in a country. Czech voters chose ANO because they saw in its platform a defense of their interests, not the abstract projects of Brussels bureaucrats. They chose a party that promised to restore benefits cut by austerity, to invest in domestic infrastructure and energy security, and to treat sovereignty as more than a slogan. That is not extremism, it's common sense.

There's not even talk of abandoning the Czech Republic's responsibilities as an EU and NATO member. Prague has remained committed to its Western alliances. But solidarity does not mean self-sacrifice without limits. Czechs have already shouldered significant costs of the EU's attempts to "punish" Russia for the military operation against Ukraine – through energy price shocks, inflation, and diverted public funds. To question how much longer this can continue is not betrayal. It is an act of democratic accountability.

The electoral math underscores the depth of this mood. ANO captured about 35% of the vote, far ahead of the ruling coalition. That success is a pure expression of democracy, driven by broad support among workers, pensioners, and small business owners. In other words, the people most affected by economic strain deman change. Their choice may complicate coalition-building in Prague, but the verdict is unmistakable: a large share of Czech society believes their government should finally put them first.

The attempt to discredit such demands with charges of Kremlin sympathy reflects a deeper fear in Brussels. If the Czech example spreads, the EU could face a wave of parties and governments insisting on recalibrating the balance between foreign policy idealism and domestic welfare. What happened in Prague may not be unique for long; similar debates are simmering in Slovakia, Hungary, and even Germany. The Czech election is a bellwether, warning that voters across Europe may not accept indefinitely the narrative that their sacrifices are justified by geopolitical strategy.

In that sense, Babiš’s victory is not only a Czech story. It is part of a broader European reckoning. Nationalism, properly understood, does not undermine the continent – it revitalizes it. By insisting that governments answer to their own people, it strengthens democracy and ensures that Europe’s unity is built on consent rather than coercion.

The real question is whether Brussels and its allies will listen. Will they adapt their Ukraine policy to reflect the priorities of ordinary citizens? Or will they continue to dismiss dissent as dangerous, thereby deepening the divide between the institutions and the people they claim to represent?

For now, the Czech voters have spoken clearly. They want leaders who defend their livelihoods, not abstract crusades. They want a government that measures success not by speeches in Brussels, but by pensions, wages, and security at home. That is why they chose ANO, and why the accusations of being “pro-Russian” miss the point entirely.

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Astonishingly evil move by Starmer. A virtual invitation to assassins! Does the Labour Party have enough character to toss him for his madness?


UK parliament cuts major opposition figure’s security detail

PM Keir Starmer will be held responsible should any harm befall Nigel Farage, a representative for Reform UK party has said
UK parliament cuts major opposition figure’s security detail











UK parliamentary authorities drastically slashed government-funded security for Nigel Farage, an MP and the leader of a major opposition right-wing party, Reform UK, its head of policy has claimed. Zia Yusuf accused Prime Minister Keir Starmer of deliberately putting his political rival at risk of attack.

Speaking to Times Radio on Wednesday, Yusuf stated that two weeks ago, the authorities cut Nigel’s security detail by 75 per cent,” without providing any reasons for the decision. The Reform UK representative added that “donors have stepped in [to]… make sure that Nigel is well protected.”

However, “if anything was to happen to Nigel, we will hold Keir Starmer squarely responsible,” Yusuf stressed.

Yusuf further accused the sitting prime minister of inciting violence against the “man who is the bookmaker’s favorite to be the next prime minister.”

Farage himself acknowledged he feared for his own security and that of other party members after Starmer’s latest attack.

Speaking during the Labour Party conference on Tuesday, the prime minister dubbed Farage a “snake oil merchant” who does not like Britain because of his “racist” plans to curb immigration. Starmer charged that Britain must “go into that battle armed, not just with words and condemnation, but with action,” describing Reform UK as the “enemy of national renewal” and the “biggest threat we face.”

On Thursday, The Telegraph reported that veteran Conservative MP Sir David Davis had asked Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood to “review the decision at the earliest opportunity.”

“It strikes me that Mr Farage is a particularly high-profile target, arguably at greater risk than many Cabinet ministers,” the lawmaker reportedly wrote in a letter.

An Ipsos poll last month indicated that Starmer’s popularity had hit a record low, with 79% of Britons disapproving of his performance.

Another survey by think tank More in Common suggested around the same time that Farage would become prime minister with 373 MPs if an election were held tomorrow. The Labour, in contrast, would suffer its worst electoral defeat since 1931, securing less than 100 seats in the House of Commons, according to the poll.

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Sunday, September 4, 2022

European Politics > Italy's Far-Right rising again; Meloni uses video of migrant raping Ukrainian woman; Czechs not Buying NATO's Narrative on Russia

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Far-right Italian leader Meloni rides popular wave in polls

By FRANCES D'EMILIO


FILE — Giorgia Meloni holds an Italian flag as she addresses a rally in Rome, Saturday, Oct. 19, 2019. With God, homeland and "natural" family prominent in her political manifesto, Giorgia Meloni, whose Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy) party with neo-fascist roots has been fast rising in popularity in view of the upcoming Sept. 25 elections for Parliament, is positioning herself to become Italy's first far-right premier and the first woman to hold that office. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini).


ROME (AP) With a message that blends Christianity, motherhood and patriotism, Giorgia Meloni is riding a wave of popularity that next month could see her become Italy’s first female prime minister and its first far-right leader since World War II.

Even though her Brothers of Italy party has neo-fascist roots, Meloni has sought to dispel concerns about its legacy, saying voters have grown tired of such discussions.

Still, there are nagging signs that such a legacy can’t be shaken off so easily: Her party’s symbol includes an image of a tricolored flame, borrowed from a neo-fascist party formed shortly after the end of the war.

If Brothers of Italy prevails at the polls on Sept. 25 and the 45-year-old Meloni becomes premier, it will come almost 100 years to the month after Benito Mussolini, Italy’s fascist dictator, came to power in October 1922.

In 2019, Meloni proudly introduced Caio Giulio Cesare Mussolini, a great-grandson of the dictator, as one of her candidates for the European Parliament, although he eventually lost.

For most Italian voters, questions about anti-fascism and neo-fascism aren’t “a key driver of whom to vote for,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, head of the YouTrend polling company. ”They don’t see that as part of the present. They see that as part of the past.”

Still, Meloni is sensitive to international scrutiny about her possible premiership and prefers the term conservative instead of far right to describe her party.

She recently recorded video messages in English, French and Spanish that said the Italian right “has handed fascism over to history for decades now, unambiguously condemning the suppression of democracy and the ignominious anti-Jewish laws.”

That was a reference to the 1938 laws banning Italy’s small Jewish community from participating in business, education and other facets of everyday life. The laws paved the way for the deportation of many Italian Jews to Nazi death camps during the German occupation of Rome in the waning years of World War II.

Yet by keeping the tri-colored flame in her party’s logo, “she is symbolically playing on that heritage,” said David Art, a Tufts University political science professor who studies Europe’s far right. “But then she wants to say, ‘We’re not racist.’”

Unlike Germany, which worked to come to terms with its devastating Nazi legacy, the fascist period is little scrutinized in Italian schools and universities, says Gastone Malaguti. Now 96, he fought as a teenager against Mussolini’s forces. In his decades of visiting classrooms to talk about Italy’s anti-fascist Resistance, he found many students “ignorant” of that history.

Only five years ago, Brothers of Italy — its name is inspired by the opening words of the national anthem — was viewed as a fringe force, winning 4.4% of the vote. Now, opinion polls indicate it could come in first place in September and capture as much as 24% support, just ahead of the center-left Democrat Party led by former Premier Enrico Letta.

Under Italy’s complex, partially proportional electoral system, campaign coalitions are what propels party leaders into the premiership, not just votes. Right-wing politicians have done a far better job this year than the Democrats of forging wide-ranging electoral partnerships.




Far-right Italian leader blasted for posting rape video


By Crispian Balmer

Brothers of Italy party leader Giorgia Meloni arrives for a meeting at the Quirinale Palace in Rome, Italy January 29, 2021. REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane/File Photo


ROME, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Far-right leader Giorgia Meloni, leading the race to become Italy's next prime minister, was accused on Monday of shameful electioneering by her rivals after posting a video of a Ukrainian woman being raped by a migrant in an Italian city.

The 55-year-old woman was assaulted on a pavement in the city of Piacenza early Sunday by an asylum seeker from Guinea, local officials said. The incident was videoed by someone in a flat overlooking the street and the assailant was arrested.

Police confirmed the arrest and said the man was being detained as the investigation continued.

Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy party heads the polls ahead of a Sept. 25 national election, tweeted the video, which had been posted on a newspaper website with the image blurred but the woman's cries clearly audible.

"One cannot remain silent in the face of this atrocious episode of sexual violence against a Ukrainian woman carried out in daytime in Piacenza by an asylum seeker," Meloni wrote.

"A hug to this woman. I will do everything I can to restore security to our cities."

The tweet drew a barrage of criticism online, as well as from Meloni's political opponents.

"It is indecent to use images of a rape. Even more indecent to do so for electoral purposes," Enrico Letta, head of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), wrote on Twitter.

It is far more indecent to pretend it doesn't happen, or to pretend that migrants aren't largely responsible for a major spike in violent crimes across Europe.

Another centrist leader, Carlo Calenda, called Meloni's Tweet "immoral". Igiaba Scego, a prominent Italian writer of Somali heritage, accused Meloni of exploiting the rape victim.

"Offered up as clickbait voyeurism instead of being protected. This electoral campaign is horrendous," she wrote.

Meloni, who has called for a naval blockade of North Africa to prevent migrant boats from setting sail, said on Facebook her rivals had used the rape to attack her while ignoring the victim to avoid addressing what she called the immigration emergency.

Letta's post had said: "Respect for people and victims always comes first" and Calenda wrote "only the victims matter".

How about respect for the citizens of Italy who will become victims of such lawless people?




This is the first country that I am aware of where the people are standing up against the accepted narrative of the West against Russia. I don't think it will be the last as energy prices skyrocket in Europe. In spite of the mainstream media being totally controlled by Deep State, social media is beginning to make a dent in the acceptable narrative (read: lies) of NATO and the western oligarchs who produce weapons of war.


Tens of thousands protest against Czech government


Thousands of demonstrators gather to protest against the government at the Vencesla's Square in Prague, Czech Republic, Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek)


PRAGUE (AP)Tens of thousands of protesters from the far right and far left joined forces to rally against the country’s pro-Western Czech government in the capital on Saturday.

Police estimated that the crowd at Prague’s central Wenceslas Square numbered around 70,000.

Some of the groups represented at the demonstration included the major anti-migrant populist Freedom and Direct Democracy party and the Communist Party.

The protesters demanded the resignation of the current coalition government led by conservative Prime Minister Petr Fiala, criticizing it for a number of issues, including its Western-oriented policies.

They condemned the government for its support of the sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine and accused it of not being able to tackle soaring energy prices. The demonstrators also criticized NATO, and the European Union and the 27-nation bloc’s plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions and reach climate neutrality. The country belongs to both organizations.

Fiala said everyone has a right to demonstrate, but said those protesting are expressing pro-Russia views “that are not in the interest of the Czech Republic and our citizens.”

The Czech Republic firmly supports Ukraine in its battle against Russia’s invasion and has donated arms, including heavy weapons, to the Ukrainian armed forces.

The government is planning to call an emergency meeting of EU countries next week to seek a united approach to the energy crisis. The Czech Republic currently holds the bloc’s rotating presidency.




Wednesday, December 1, 2021

European Politics > Traffic-Light Coalition in Germany; Sweden's New PM Resigns Within Hours; Czech Pres Back in Hospital; Finland's Electricity Under Hyperinflation; Energy Crisis Serious

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Germany’s choice of new chancellor confirmed

24 Nov, 2021 14:04 


Social Democratic Party (SPD) Olaf Scholz arrives for talks to form a so-called traffic light government coalition, in Berlin, Germany (FILE PHOTO) © REUTERS/Annegret Hilse


Germany’s so-called traffic light coalition has unveiled its plan to form a government eight weeks after the federal election, with former finance minister Olaf Scholz set to be chancellor.

In a leaked 177-page draft document, titled “Dare to advance more – Alliance for Freedom, Justice and Sustainability” and seen by Reuters, the SPD (Social Democratic Party), the Greens, and the FDP (Free Democratic Party) revealed their coalition agreement for the next government of Germany. 

The leak on Wednesday came after a final day of discussions between the three parties. The deal will see Germany’s first three-way federal coalition government since the 1950s. The leak also preceded a 3pm (2pm GMT) press conference in which the coalition was formally presented.

The coalition deal includes the promise to increase the minimum wage of 12 euro per hour and will see the voting age lowered to 16. An earlier commitment to build more apartments also features in the coalition pact, with the state funding a quarter of the targeted 400,000 flats a year. 

Additional policy decisions include allowing immigrants to apply for citizenship after five years of residency and the creation of a crisis team to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.

The new coalition also says it is ready for a constructive dialogue with Russia, according to the draft coalition agreement.

Coalition negotiations began on October 21, after the three traffic light parties – a reference to the group’s colors – laid the foundations for exploratory talks to proceed. The SDP, led by former finance minister Olaf Scholz, was narrowly declared the largest party in the Bundestag after the September 26 election. 

In an exploratory paper, the SPD, Greens, and FDP had already made some “preliminary determinations” and cleared away some issues.  

If the coalition agreement is approved by party members in the coming weeks, the traffic light coalition would replace the current coalition of the Christian Social Union and outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union.

The deal will also see Scholz replace Merkel as the country’s chancellor after 16 years in power. The long-time leader decided not to stand for a fifth term in office.  

Speaking to the press, Scholz hailed the “groundbreaking” coalition. “The first traffic light [in Germany] was erected in Berlin in 1924 in Potsdamer Platz. At that time, it was still an unusual technology. ‘Can it work?’ people asked sceptically,” Scholz stated.

“Today, the traffic light is indispensable… My ambition as chancellor is that this traffic light alliance will play a similarly groundbreaking role for Germany.” 

Greens co-leader Annalena Baerbock admitted that the parties would always have their differences, but would work together, vowing to take the country forward through public and private investments as well as a focus on the green agenda.

The three-party bloc has vowed to modernize Europe’s largest economy by investing heavily to upgrade national infrastructure and develop green industries. Sources told Reuters that the parties had agreed to phase out coal by 2030 and to end power generation from gas by 2040.

It is understood that the Greens may get control over the foreign ministry, while Robert Habeck, the co-leader of the party, is expected to become a “superminister” overseeing the economy as well as climate and energy policy.

Yikes! That sounds frightening!

The announcement comes as the caretaker government, led by Merkel, struggles to manage a surge in Covid-19 cases.  




Sweden’s first female PM resigns hours after being elected

24 Nov, 2021 18:31

Magdalena Andersson (seated at right) is shown being cheered by colleagues in parliament after winning election
as Sweden's first female prime minister on Wednesday in Stockholm. © Reuters / TT News Agency


Newly elected Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has announced her resignation just hours after making history as the country’s first woman premier.

“I have told the speaker that I wish to resign as prime minister,” Andersson told reporters on Wednesday in Stockholm, after the coalition led by her Social Democratic Party unraveled. The 54-year-old  Andersson is reportedly seeking new support after the Green Party quit the new ruling minority coalition in the wake of a budget defeat.

The coalition was to govern on a razor-thin margin of support after the new PM was elected on Wednesday with more votes against her than for her in parliament. The vote was 117 MPs for Andersson, Sweden’s finance minister, and 174 against her, with 57 lawmakers abstaining or absent. Swedish law allows prime ministers to be appointed and govern as long as a majority of the Riksdag – 175 MPs – doesn’t vote against them.

However, Andersson’s historic victory, making Sweden the last Nordic country to have a female head of state, was quickly followed by a legislative defeat, as the Centre Party declined to go along with other coalition members in supporting the government’s budget proposal. MPs instead passed a rival budget proposed by three conservative parties, including the Sweden Democrats.

Although Andersson had said she could govern the country with the opposition budget, the Greens balked, with co-leader Marta Stenevi telling reporters the party sought power in order to push through its own policies. “It is not the Green Party’s job in politics to implement a budget negotiated with the Sweden Democrats.”

Andersson subsequently said she didn’t want to lead a government “where there may be grounds to question its legitimacy.” She reportedly told Riksdag Speaker Andreas Norlen that she’s interested in leading a one-party Social Democratic government. Sweden has a general election scheduled for next September. 

The Social Democrats had chosen Andersson to replace Stefan Lofven, who stepped down as prime minister and party leader earlier this month. Lofven announced his intention to resign in August amid political infighting, including a no confidence vote against him, and hoped to give his successor “the best of conditions” heading into next year’s election.




Czech president sent back to hospital

25 Nov, 2021 21:50

FILE PHOTO. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS


Czech President Milos Zeman has been sent to hospital after testing positive for Covid-19. The test came hours after he was discharged from a healthcare facility, where he spent some six weeks due to an undisclosed diagnosis.

The hospitalization of the 77-year-old official was announced by the Czech presidency late on Thursday. Zeman was taken to the Central Military Hospital (UVN) after testing positive for the coronavirus at the presidential retreat at Lany, outside of the country’s capital city of Prague.

“The president’s program will be suspended pending the treatment of Covid-19,” Zeman's office said in a statement. 

Zeman was discharged from the UVN earlier in the day, having spent around six weeks there. The president was originally hospitalized on October 10 and placed in an intensive care unit, where he remained during most of his stint at the facility.

While no diagnosis has been officially confirmed, local media reported that Zeman’s prolonged stay at the UVN was due to a liver condition. The presidency offered little clarification on the issue, saying only that he was treated for a chronic illness.

Regarding his positive test for Covid-19, the president has reportedly shown no symptoms of the disease. According to local media, he had previously been vaccinated against the virus at least three times.




EU country’s electricity prices 5 times higher this year

30 Nov, 2021 12:11 

The view shows South port and Market square, in Helsinki, Finland. © Sputnik / Alexey Danichev


The cost of electricity in Finland exceeded €400 per megawatt-hour during peak consumption hours this week, according to data from the Nord Pool electricity exchange.

The highest price was recorded on November 29, at €422 per MWh (including taxes). That’s about five times higher than a year ago.

Finland is energy-dependent, with about 10% of its electricity supplied by Russia. Experts attribute the increased price to high energy costs in Central Europe, where a large amount of electricity is generated from natural gas, the price of which has increased significantly. They say electricity in Finland is likely to remain expensive until next summer, when the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant is expected to become operational.

Natural gas costs have been rising for European consumers with the winter season approaching. On Tuesday, the price of January futures on the TTF exchange in the Netherlands exceeded $1,170 per thousand cubic meters, or €100 per MWh in household terms.

“According to our forecast, the price of electricity will remain high in winter but will start to decline in spring. It is likely that it will not be as high as it is today, but the overall level remains elevated,” a spokesman for Finnish electricity company Fingrid, Mikko Heikkila, told journalists.

He added that “Finland is very dependent on imports. In winter we need energy from neighboring countries but if the electricity market and domestic electricity production work normally, then next winter there will be enough electricity.”

According to Fingrid, the share of electricity imports from Russia amounted to 10% of consumption in Finland in the first nine months of 2021.

The average price of Russian electricity was €57.98 per MWh. Russian energy company Inter RAO said last week that most of its electricity export volume goes to Finland (37%), the Baltic countries (23%), and China (18%).

And yet, Nordstream II pipeline runs just south of Helsinki. Why is that option not being explored? Seems to me that the EU is counting on a mild winter.




Another brilliant column by Glenn Diesen


Europe’s imminent winter energy crisis could have

serious political consequences

1 Dec, 2021 15:42

A person crosses the Westminster Bridge, with the Palace of Westminster on the background,
as snow falls in London, Britain. © REUTERS / Toby Melville

By Glenn Diesen, Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and an editor at the Russia in Global Affairs journal. Follow him on Twitter @glenn_diesen.


With temperatures falling and gas prices rising, much of Europe is drifting into a perfect storm. Supply shortages, inflation, green policies and ideological opposition to Russia are creating an energy crisis.

As a result, power outages, stunted economic recovery and political fallout could have ramifications across the continent. In the longer term, the failure of EU policymakers will undermine energy security, make its industries less competitive, and have a negative impact on Europe’s cohesion and role in the world.

Coming frost

Efforts by the US and EU to borrow and spend their way to recovery are failing. Growing debt and money printing are fueling inflation with a predictable impact on energy prices. America’s recent and drastic inflation of the money supply was unnecessarily reckless, given the country was already recovering from Covid-19 lockdowns. 

The troubled green transition has also been a contributing factor, as the closure of nuclear power plants, an aversion to coal and the shortcomings of wind power have resulted in growing reliance on gas as a cheap and relatively clean source of energy.

Then there is the EU’s decision to abandon long-term gas contracts that ensure reliable supply at predictable prices. The EU has instead favoured buying gas at spot price, in which supplies are purchased directly from what is already on the market, rather than agreeing to deliveries at a fixed price. The obvious risk, which is becoming apparent across Europe, is that gas spot prices can fluctuate fiercely and there may not be enough available product on the market, as the extraction, processing and transit of the fuel must be planned in advance.

Russia, which has been blamed in some quarters for the crisis, insists it is fulfilling its obligations under the existing long-term gas contracts, although it acknowledges there is not enough available gas to respond to sudden rises in demand. As a result, Moscow is replenishing its own supplies, along with supplying gas to consumers in Asia in accordance with its long-term contractual obligations, and the broader European market is too large to sufficiently boost output on such short notice.

Europe’s headache

Relations with Russia were destined to be problematic when the West decided after the Cold War to construct a new Europe with Moscow shut out. Russia was expected to abide by the decisions of the main institutions, of which it was denied membership. To square the circle, this demanded extreme asymmetrical interdependence by increasing Russia’s reliance on the West, while reducing the West’s reliance on Russia. Asymmetrical economic interdependence could be converted to political power, as the worst deal presented to Russia would still be the only deal on the table.

Russia was excessively reliant on the West for almost everything, while Europe has to a large extent only been dependent on Russian energy. In the 1990s, Western interests were in the process of establishing control over the Russian energy market until Vladimir Putin took office and brought the vast amount back under state control. The West responded by obsessing about reducing reliance on Russian gas and seeking control over transit states, such as Ukraine where previously 80% of exports passed through. 

Moscow aimed to use its important role as an energy provider to get a seat at the table in the institutions of Europe, while the West cautioned against the evils of the Russian “energy weapon.” Much of the West fought against additional pipelines to increase reliable gas supplies as part of this. 

Without any intended irony, the US claimed to be defending Europe’s energy security when it placed sanctions on European companies that participated in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, over objections from Germany. The hostility to Russian gas appears to have worked, as Moscow is unlikely to construct any more pipelines to Europe, and instead will give priority to the Asian market.

In 2021, Europe is a different place. Russia is no longer attempting to use its position as an energy supplier to negotiate a different political set up on the continent. Instead, Moscow has abandoned its former utopian dreams of being part of a Greater Europe and has instead set its sights on the East to develop a Greater Eurasia in partnership with China. European companies, technologies and consumers are therefore becoming less and less significant for Russia’s energy industry. Former Russian proposals for a common European security architecture and energy market have now been replaced with red lines against further NATO expansionism.

Is a thaw possible?

To resolve the energy crisis, Western Europe needs to have an honest and rational reflection regarding what has led to this perfect storm with its potential long-term implications. Instead, elites are retreating into anti-Russian sloganeering about facing a “hybrid war” and “energy weapon,” which is a comfortable distraction but fails to address the underlying problems of a continent in decline. Increased antagonism merely reaffirms Moscow’s belief that the EU is an unreliable partner, and that Russia’s efforts to develop new economic partnerships must remain a top priority.

Destined to live in a divided Europe, Brussels and Russia should make the best of it by de-politicising energy and forming a pragmatic energy partnership. Russia will behave predictably, in its own national interest, which is to act as a reliable supplier of gas in the pursuit of profitable and predictable markets. Only the EU can stop digging itself into a hole.

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