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France may soon overtake Russia as the world’s No. 2 arms exporter
Reports of new deals to sell French arms to India and Qatar are just the latest sign that France’s defence industry is gaining pace. The news comes as Russian arms exports decline in the wake of the war in Ukraine, leading to speculation that France could soon take its place as the world’s second-largest weapons exporter after the United States.
Issued on: 02/08/2023 - 18:56, 5 min
Text by: Gregor THOMPSON
At this year’s Bastille Day military parade on July 14, French President Emmanuel Macron was joined by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was also not just French forces on display. On the ground, Macron and his guest of honour watched as the Indian Tri-Services contingent made their way up the Champs-Élysées. In the air, the Indian Air Force performed a fly-past in French-made Dassault Rafale fighter jets.
To anyone closely following the international arms trade, this will not have come as a surprise. The day before, New Dehli gave initial approval for an order of six Scorpène submarines and 26 Rafale jets for the Indian Navy. Two weeks later on July 25, France’s La Tribune newspaper reported Qatar is considering adding another 24 Rafales to their stockpile.
Between 2018 and 2022, France’s share of the global arms trade increased to 11 percent compared with 7.1 percent over the previous four-year period, according to an annual Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report published in March. In the same period, the Russian share of the international arms trade declined from 22 to 16 percent.
A review of orders late last year and so far in 2023 indicates this pattern is set to continue. “The trends are very clear for France,” said Pieter Wezeman, the author of the SIPRI report.
Even before India’s Rafale order in July, SIPRI’s assessment of outstanding orders for the most valuable weapons systems suggested France was making gains on Russia’s market share.
“For France, we have a total number of 210 combat aircraft [currently on order] and for Russia we only have 84,” Wezeman said. “These numbers can change, of course, but they do indicate that for sure France will remain a major arms exporter.”
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The UAE signed a record 14-billion-euro contract for 80 French-made Rafale warplanes and committed billions of euros in other agreements on December 3, 2021. © Ammar Abd Rabbo, AFP
The reasons for the decline in Russian arms sales are varied, although many are linked to the war in Ukraine. Countries naturally aim to diversify their suppliers. But Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 means it is now dedicating more of its arms supplies to the front line, holding on to certain arms systems and focusing on replacing weapons destroyed in battle.
Multiple rounds of international sanctions on Russia may have also affected its ability to secure the materials it needs for arms production, undermining its export capacity. Reports from the front lines in Ukraine have also damaged the reputation of Russia-built armaments.
The war has been “a humbling showcase for Russian military technology”, wrote Cullen Hendrix, an international affairs professor at the University of Denver, in a May contribution to Foreign Policy magazine. “Images of ‘headless’ tanks and reports of high failure rates for Russian missiles may be part wartime propaganda, part reality … Whatever the reasons, the war in Ukraine has not been a particularly compelling advertisement for Russia’s leading-edge military technology."
Some clients have also been disappointed with Russian products in recent years. As the world’s largest arms importer, India has a decades-long relationship with Russian arms suppliers. “India is not particularly happy with what they have received, in technical terms, from Russia,” Wezeman said. “So they have turned to France.”
Political considerations are also important, said Wezeman. “Since the beginning of the war [in Ukraine] India has been reluctant to increase or sustain military relations on a high level” with Moscow.
Moreover, the US “exerts a lot of power” on countries that procure their weapons from Russia, even before the Ukraine war, Wezeman said. Indonesia, for example, abandoned a Russian aircraft purchase in 2021, opting instead for US and French options.
But Russia still holds the lion's share of arms deals in Africa and with countries like Iran and China.
The Rafale: Is France a one-trick pony?
French-built Rafale fighter jets from Dassault Aviation have played a vital role in France’s recent success, says Olivier Gras, general secretary of EuroDéfense-France, a Paris-based association of civil and military officials.
In service as early as 2002, it took until 2015 before the Rafale was first exported. The twin-engine jets are now owned and operated by Greece, Qatar, India and Egypt and are soon expected to land in Croatia, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates – which ordered 80 Standard F4 Rafales in 2021.
Rafale deliveries and orders globally have reached nearly 500, around half those of its main American competitor, Lockheed Martin’s F-35.
The more unstable the world is, the easier it is to sell war machines. Is this why France and other European countries are so enthusiastic about keeping the war in Ukraine going?
There is more on this story at France24
Myanmar's Suu Kyi has some of her prison sentences reduced
Jailed Myanmar civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been pardoned in five criminal cases, although she still faces 14 others, state media said Tuesday.
Issued on: 01/08/2023 - 09:46, 3 min
Text by: NEWS WIRES
A military coup in February 2021 plunged the Southeast Asian nation into chaos and widespread violence as the military junta launched a bloody crackdown on dissent.
"Chairman of State Administration Council pardoned Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who was sentenced by the relevant courts under five cases," a state media broadcast said.
The broadcast said the 78-year-old Nobel Peace laureate still faces 14 other cases.
Tuesday's announcement was part of an amnesty of more than 7,000 prisoners to mark Buddhist Lent.
The junta announced on Monday it would extend Myanmar's state of emergency by six months, state media said, which is likely to delay elections promised for August.
Suu Kyi, who has been in detention since 2021, has been sentenced to 33 years in jail for a clutch of charges, including corruption, possession of illegal walkie-talkies and flouting coronavirus restrictions.
"She couldn't be freed completely, although some sentences against her were pardoned. She still has to face 14 cases. Only five cases out of 19 were pardoned," a legal source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.
Former Myanmar president Win Myint, who was also removed in the 2021 coup, would also be pardoned in two cases, the broadcast said.
The announcement said 125 foreign prisoners would be released and pardoned.
An unspecified number of prisoners facing the death penalty also had their sentences reduced to life imprisonment, it said.
AFP
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