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U.N. report: India overtakes China as most populous country
By A.L. Lee
Massive crowds jostle through the Ranganathan Street market in Chennai, India. Population estimates published Wednesday by the United Nations show India has likely surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world. File Photo by Idrees Mohammed/EPA-EFE
April 19 (UPI) -- India has likely surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world, according to new estimates released Wednesday by the United Nations.
The State of World Population Report, 2023, published by the U.N. Population Fund, also affirmed the total number of people on Earth eclipsed 8 billion in November 2022.
The report comes three months after China announced its population had declined for the first time in six decades as deaths outpaced births last year.
The latest data from UNFPA estimates India's population stood at 1.4286 billion, while China's population was slightly lower at 1.4257 billion -- giving India a 2.9 million edge, although there has been no official census in India since 2011.
Together, the population of China and India equates to more than a third of the world's total.
Fertility rates are on the decline throughout Asia, and as a result, China was expected to see a considerable drop in its population by 2024, the report said.
In India, birth rates fell from 5.7 per woman in 1950 to 2.2 births per woman in 2022.
In 2016, Beijing reversed its one-child policy after more than three decades and began offering incentives for families to have two or more kids. The government raised the limit to three children in 2021 after China's birth rate decreased to its lowest level since 1978.
There were 10.41 million deaths last year, marking the first time China's population has declined since 1961 after a three-year famine killed tens of millions of people.
In January, China reported close to 60,000 people had died from COVID-19 since early December after ending three years of anti-virus measures.
The U.N. report does not include population estimates for Hong Kong and Macau, two of China's special administrative regions, and it also omits any density readings on Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway republic -- a claim that continues to fan tensions with the United States.
A majority of India's citizens were anxious that the population was too high and would eventually lead to economic problems for the country, according to a survey commissioned by the UNFPA.
Demographers conducting the study noted that overall population growth had slowed over many decades to reach its most sluggish expansion since 1950.
Projections show that much of the global population is expected to be on the older side. The share of the global population above age 65 is expected to reach 16% in 2050, which will be more than twice the number of children under age 5.
As China's population shrinks and life expectancy increases, nearly a third of its population could be over age 60 by 2035, according to projections. That means the world's second-largest economy, behind the United States, will no longer have enough people of working age to support the country's manufacturing sector, economic experts said.
A study released earlier this month by the World Health Organization says 1 in 6 people worldwide experience infertility at some point in their lifetime, highlighting the need for affordable, quality fertility care and calling the ability to have a child an "essential human right."
The report also provides data on women's reproductive rights and urges governments around the world to adopt policies that promote fertility and women's health.
"Women's bodies should not be held captive to population targets," says UNFPA Executive Director Dr. Natalia Kanem. "To build thriving and inclusive societies, regardless of population size, we must radically rethink how we talk about and plan for population change."
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